ESPN Releases FPI Projections Notre Dame's 2020 Schedule
ESPN came out with its Football Power Index (FPI) projections for each team in 2020. The exercise projects the percentage of winning each game based on each team's current FPI, game location and game type.
Notre Dame is projected to go 9-3 according to the FPI with losses against Wisconsin, Clemson and USC.
August 29 - Navy - Dublin, Ireland (For now)
Notre Dame is given an 82.3% chance of winning the game. That's probably about right, but I'd probably put it a little more in Notre Dame's favor considering Malcolm Perry is no longer a problem for the Irish defense.
Early line from BetMGM: Notre Dame -16.5
September 12 - Arkansas - Notre Dame Stadium
Arkansas will have its hands full with this game as the Razorbacks will be breaking in a new coach and everything that comes along with that.
Now, Arkansas does have some skill-position talent, but Notre Dame is given an 90.3% chance of winning this game.
September 19 - Western Michigan - Notre Dame Stadium
This isn't PJ Fleck's Western Michigan squad coming to South Bend and it's reflected by an 94.4% chance of winning.
September 26 - Wake Forest - Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte)
Wake Forest lost quarterback Jamie Newman to Georgia, so the Irish will likely see Sam Hartman, who they faced as a true freshman in 2018.
Shockingly, the FPI gives the Irish an 85.4% to win, which is more than Navy.
Early line from BetMGM: Notre Dame -23.5
October 3 - Wisconsin - Lambeau Field (Green Bay)
Not sure how the FPI only has Notre Dame at an 26.5% chance of winning as Wisconsin lost significant skill-position players from a year ago.
Sure, Wisconsin returns its starting quarterback, but I'm not sure he's someone Notre Dame needs to be scared of. Notre Dame will also be the more athletic and faster team, so I'm not sure I agree here.
Early line from BetMGM: Notre Dame - 2.5
October 10 - Stanford - Notre Dame Stadium
It was a tough 2019 for Stanford and then they lost double-digit transfers. Not good for a program that banks on having an older team.
Notre Dame is given an 76.6% chance to win this one.
Early line from BetMGM: Notre Dame -17.5
October 17 - Pitt - Heinz Field (Pittsburgh)
The Irish make the trip to the Steel City for the first time since 2015 and will have an 75.3% chance to win.
October 31 - Duke - Notre Dame Stadium
First game off a bye week and the game before Clemson...and the Irish are given an 89.0% chance of winning.
It seems high, as Duke brought in quality graduate transfer, including quarterback Chase Brice from Clemson.
November 7 - Clemson - Notre Dame Stadium
Notre Dame has an 13.3% chance of pulling the upset on the Tigers in this projection. I didn't know what to expect here as Clemson should win based on talent, but if it snows, could that percentage go up for the Irish?
Early line from BetMGM: Clemson -7.5
November 14 - Georgia Tech - Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Good news here. Notre Dame won't face the triple-option and ESPN feels the Irish will have an 75.0% chance of winning.
November 21 - Louisville - Notre Dame Stadium
This is the game I feel Notre Dame could get trapped. It's Senior Day before a potentially colossal game at USC. Louisville was much improved with Scott Satterfield taking over and I expect the Cardinals to be even better in 2020.
ESPN gives Notre Dame a 65.4% chance to win.
Early line from BetMGM: Notre Dame -14.5
November 28 - USC - LA Memorial Coliseum
This is the most shocking of all the projections. USC is a hot mess and while they have offensive talent, Notre Dame is the superior team.
The 30.4% chance to win this game seems hugely off base.
Early line from BetMGM: No spread, but the money line is current USC -125, while Notre Dame is +105.
Recap
Navy: 82.3%
Arkansas: 90.3%
Western Michigan: 94.%
Wake Forest: 85.4%
Wisconsin: 26.5%
Stanford: 76.6%
Pittsburgh: 75.3%
Duke: 89%
Clemson: 13.3%
Georgia Tech: 75%
Louisville: 65.4%
USC: 30.4%
All in all, Notre Dame have at least a 75 percent chance of winning eight games is good. In fact, that's very good.
Notre Dame being disrespected in the big games seems to be about the recent past outside of the wild USC projection.