The 1st Round Talent Gap
Notre Dame did not have a player selected in the first round of the NFL Draft after having three go in the previous two drafts. They should have at least a couple of players selected tonight in rounds two and three, with as many as five potentially off the board.
It’s not like the 2019 team lacked talent, but they didn’t have enough elite talent like some other programs.
Those other programs would be LSU, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Auburn. Everyone was talking about the SEC having a record number of selections last night (14), but it really was these seven schools that dominated the night. They combined for 20 of the 32 players selected with each team having at least two first round picks on their roster.
If it wasn’t clear before, the power dynamic in college football is based around those programs. Even for Auburn, which has spent years underachieving compared to their talent level, it’s not a surprise to see them have two players taken given the way they recruit.
Out of those 20 players, the Irish only had a shot at landing two of them. It’s not surprising that both were offensive lineman. Andrew Thomas and Jedrick Wills were both priority targets for Notre Dame and made it to campus for visits. Neither came close to committing, though.
They offered others like Jerry Jeudy, Noah Igbinoghene, Jeff Okudah, AJ Terrell, and Chase Young, but were not contenders for any of them. That’s only seven of the 20 who that they offered.
Some of that may have to do with evaluation. Some of it may have to do with fit. Either way, when you only have a shot at landing two of 20, that’s a problem. Looking at the first round as a whole, Notre Dame only had offers out to two other players when they were recruits: TCU’s Jalen Reagor and USC’s Austin Jackson. Neither really considered Notre Dame.
Knowing that the Irish clearly have the goal of closing the talent gap when it comes to the Ohio State’s, the Clemson’s, and the Alabama’s of the world, they can’t be content with the status quo. They only had a shot at one of the 32 in the 2019 Draft, the player they ultimately landed in Jerry Tillery. Though they had two go in the first round in 2018, Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey, they didn’t come close to landing any of the other 30 who went that year either.
Notre Dame has to figure out why they are so far off when it comes to recruiting first round picks. How much of it is evaluation? How much of it has to do with guys who aren’t academic or culture fits? How much of it has to do with regional recruiting and the number of players who don’t want to leave the south? How much of it is development of their own players?
Maybe it’s as simple as Notre Dame recruiting at a top-five level ,like Brian Kelly said they can do. If it is, then everything needs to be changed to get them in a position to do that. But if there are other ways, like getting in early on an under the radar prospects like Isaiah Simmons, that needs to be looked at as well.
They have no choice but to turn over every rock possible in order to find a way to close the elite talent gap.
- It should be noted that many of these players are from the 2017 recruiting cycle and that was before the reboot of the program by Kelly. Things have changed quite a bit since then in both recruiting evaluation and player development.
We’ll have to see how much of a difference that makes for Notre Dame in future drafts.
- If you’re wondering why someone like Joe Burrow slipped through the cracks without an offer from Notre Dame, don’t bother. They’d be lumped in with a number of programs who didn’t have him high on their list during the 2015 cycle.
This was the year that they took Brandon Wimbush after flipping him from Penn State. At the time it looked like a fantastic pickup and a great recovery after losing Blake Barnett. They were top-50 prospects who the recruiting industry as a whole whiffed on.
- Tua Tagovailoa is a different story. That was a massive mistake by Notre Dame choosing to not offer him, especially because he would have been a great fit for the program as a whole.
Mike Sanford originally offered Hunter Johnson and after that didn’t work out, decided to focus on Avery Davis and Hendon Hooker. Sanford gets credit for his evaluation of Ian Book, but not even getting into the game with Tagovailoa is pretty much unforgivable.
- Four linebackers went in the first round last night. Only one of them was a 4-star recruit, LSU’s Patrick Queen, and he wasn’t ranked in the top-250 overall.
That’s for all of the people in the back ready to rip on Clark Lea if he doesn’t get a 4-star stud in the 2021 cycle. Linebacker is one position where you can find gems who aren’t considered to be elite as high school recruits.
- Notre Dame faced four offensive tackles (Thomas, Jackson, Mekhi Becton, and Isaiah Wilson) that went off the board in the first round as well as center Cesar Ruiz from Michigan. They didn’t go up against any other first round picks in 2019, though they did have to deal with Simmons and Terrell back in the 2018 Cotton Bowl.