Notre Dame Opponent Preview | Louisville
Scott Satterfield inherited a mess at Louisville yet somehow stuffed a bunch of clothes in a closet and made it look presentable. A team that was projected to be one of the worst in the ACC ended up winning eight games and did it entertaining fashion.
This normally would have been seen as year two of a rebuild. Satterfield has turned it into something much more promising way quicker than anyone expected.
They are ranked 41st in SP+ heading into the pre-season (back when all of the teams in the FBS were still supposed to play). This is a good team that is scheduled to travel to South Bend in October and one that has the potential of knocking off a more talented Notre Dame team.
It is worth noting that they were 8-1 against teams who finished outside of the SP+ top-40 last season and that they lost their four games against top-40 teams by an average score of 44-17. Notre Dame was one of those teams and still beat them by 18 points in a sloppily played game.
The Irish are the best team Louisville is going to play during the regular season.
Offense
Ranked 14 in SP+ heading into the season, they return a ton of production and have one of the best quarterback, running back, and wide receiver combos in the conference.
It starts with quarterback Micale Cunningham who finished 8th in ESPN’s QBR last season. He’s a dual-threat who can gash teams as a runner (6.3 yards per carry minus sack yardage) and he also would have been tops in the country with 11.5 yards per attempt if he qualified with enough passes.
He still has to be better in the pocket, but he can get the ball downfield and has a couple of great receivers to throw to.
TuTu Atwell is probably the fastest player Notre Dame will face in 2020. He’s a big play waiting to happen and brought in 1,276 yards on 18.23 yards per reception last fall. They will try to get him the football in a variety of ways and Notre Dame needs to avoid getting him matched up with a safety in man coverage.
Dez Fitzpatrick is the outside threat who averaged 18.14 YPR. Atwell might be the guy Clark Lea schemes to try and take away, but Fitzpatrick is capable of making big plays as well.
They also have a stud in the backfield in Javian Hawkins. He finished 7th in the country in rushing yards last season with 1,525 and he had 122 (6.42 YPC) against Notre Dame. The skill talent is why they are so good, but the offensive line is a question mark.
They lost first round left tackle Mekhi Becton to the NFL and even with him, they still were below average up front. They finished an abysmal 121st in Stuff Rate (runs tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage) and were 125th in sack rate. Cunningham was sacked 25 times and they gave up 40 overall.
Notre Dame’s defensive line should give them issues and they won’t have the benefit of going up against three new starting linebackers like they did in game one last year.
X-factor - Atwell
A blur of an athlete, he had only two games where he didn’t have a reception longer than 20 yards in 2019. He scored touchdowns that were 62, 74, 77, 80, and 90 yards.
Wild card - Left tackle Adonis Boone
Boone filled in for Becton in their bowl game and was solid, but he might need to be exceptional to handle all of the great edge rushers in the ACC.
Defense
Satterfield was fortunate to inherit some great speed on offense. Coordinator Bryan Brown wasn’t lucky enough to have the same on defense.
They don’t have an obvious All-ACC caliber player on the defensive side of the ball. They are projected to be 84th in SP+ despite returning a lot of players from last year’s team. That group also finished 98th in plays of 30 yards or more against them so they still have plenty of holes to fill.
They finished 102nd in Stuff Rate and were 120th in yards per carry against. They also gave up 31 touchdowns through the air. Only four FBS programs gave up more. The defense wasn’t very good in almost every area.
One exception was when they were able to get teams in long yardage situations. When Brown could scheme up pressure, they were effective and they finished 15th in passing down sack rate. The problem was that they weren’t forcing teams into obvious passing situations enough.
Linebacker Rodjay Burns is the best player returning and he can help in many different ways. He had 15 Havoc plays and might be the best blitzer and coverage player. Cornerback Chandler Jones was solid, though. He’s not the biggest guy, but his 11 passes defensed led the team and he’s a good tackler as well. They don’t have enough of those types.
They need more talent all-around, especially up front. The defensive line is the weakest position group and they don’t have an emerging star on the roster.
X-factor - Burns
He led the team in tackles for loss and excelled as a hybrid safety/linebacker. He also returns punts.
WIld card - Safety Russ Yeast
Yeast was much better in 2019 after struggling his first two years at cornerback. They need him to be one of the players who makes a leap and go from good to great if the defense is going to even get to the point where they are average.
Overview
Louisville has the kind of speed on offense that would give any defense problems. It’s too bad for them that their defense won’t be enough of a problem even if they improve a lot from what they were last season.
Satterfield has them headed in the right direction, but they are still far away from being a team that can be considered more than a fringe top-40 squad because they aren’t quite there yet on the offensive and defensive lines