Scouting Report | North Carolina
Hiring Mack Brown was universally seen as a head scratching move by North Carolina. He had spent a lot of time out of coaching after being let go at Texas. Many people thought that UNC could do better with a younger option.
Brown has proven all of those doubters wrong. His return to Chapel Hill has been a huge win for the program. With great recruiting and some strong additions to his staff, he’s turned UNC back into a winner.
He hasn’t taken that next step yet, though. They’ve lost two games they should have won against Florida State and Virginia. They easily could have lost a couple of others because their defense has played poorly in a handful of other games.
This game is a huge opportunity for UNC to make a statement even though they have no shot at winning the ACC this season.
Notre Dame fans should expect a hard fought game. They should also expect UNC to not play very clean as they are 112th in penalty yards per game and are young at some critical spots on defense.
Injuries and Opt Outs
They had three defensive backs in their two-deep opt out before the season and have had more injuries on the back end. They had another starting safety dismissed from the program early in the season.
CB Storm Duck has been out since the Boston College game. There is speculation he could be out the rest of the season.
CB Kyler McMichael has been out and his status is uncertain for the Notre Dame game.
WR Beau Corrales has been out with a lower body injury. He’s a big body and wins with his size when healthy. His status is uncertain for this game.
Offense
The main reason why North Carolina is considered a threat to beat Notre Dame has to do with their offense. Coordinator Phil Longo is working with an elite group of skill talent and has turned them into one of the best in the country.
They are ranked 4th in SP+. They average a gaudy 7.7 yards per play.
Never out of a game, they average 21.5 points in the second half, so at no point will Notre Dame be able to lose focus on Friday.
It’s worth noting that UNC has been having so much success against weaker competition so far. They have not faced a defense that is currently ranked in the top-40 of SP+. Notre Dame is 8th.
Expected strengths
It all starts with the quarterback. Sam Howell is putting up Heisman trophy worthy numbers. His 10.6 yards per attempt is ridiculous. He has a strong arm and is a good deep ball passer. His mechanics can get away from him at times forcing his receivers to make tougher catches on some layups, but he makes up for it with more difficult throws.
He’s very good outside of the pocket and can create big plays when he scrambles. He’s a good runner (5.5 yards per carry minus sack yardage), but it’s him escaping the rush and getting the ball down the field that is more of a threat.
He’s complimented by a good group of receivers led by Dyami Brown (18.4 yards per reception). He’s the top target and Dazz Newsome (10 for 189 against Wake Forest) is much better than a typical number two. They will run him vertical from the slot and Notre Dame has to be on alert for that matchup.
Overall they have seven players who have receptions of 40 yards or more.
If that weren’t enough, backs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter both average more than 7.0 yards per carry. Williams has played like one of the best backs in the country. Together they have combined for 20 carries of 20 yards or more.
This pretty much says it all about the UNC offense: they average the same amount of yards on the ground as Notre Dame, but are more explosive. Coming into the weekend they were second in plays of 30 yards or more from scrimmage.
On top of all that, they are good at converting on 3rd down (48.9%). It’s difficult to get them off the field and if you don’t, they are likely to burn you for a big play.
Potential Weaknesses
The biggest issue with Howell is that he’ll hold on to the ball trying to wait out that big play. He’s been sacked 22 times and UNC is 96th in sack rate. A good portion of the pressure he gets has to do with him.
Saying it will be critical for Notre Dame to get him on the ground is an understatement.
That’s not to say the offensive line is without fault. They are a pretty average group. Left tackle Asim Richards has been responsible for six sacks.
Scheme
Longo runs his version of the Air Raid. Everyone thinks Air Raid is all about slinging it all over the field and they will do that, but this UNC team is very versatile and will take advantage of matchups whether that’s running or throwing.
They are 55.2% run on the season. They’ve had three games where they have run for over 300 yards and three other games where they have thrown for over 370 yards.
They are primarily an 11 personnel team They rotate receivers to keep those guys fresh for deep shots. UNC averages 5.6 deep throws per game and can run 4 verts on any given snap.
Longo’s offenses have had some struggles scoring touchdowns in the red zone in recent years, but that has not been the case in 2020. They run the ball so effectively there and are 73% run in the red zone. Last season they were only 54.7% run in that area of the field.
They run RPOs a lot. Probably as much as anybody in the country. Overall they run some kind of play-action fake on 45.8% of Howell’s drop backs.
Key Players
QB Sam Howell - Top-10 in pass efficiency and has taken a step up after a fantastic freshman season.
WR Dyami Brown - Averaging over 100 yards per game and has totalled 354 yards on deep passes.
WR Dazz Newsome - Had more explosive plays in 2019, but did have a 75-yard reception against Wake.
RB Javonte Williams - 62 broken tackles. He’s a beast. Incredibly tough to tackle and also a dangerous receiver who is averaging 13.7 per reception. He has 18 total touchdowns.
RB Michael Carter - The smaller back, but still a handful to tackle and capable of going off.
Key Matchup for Notre Dame
UNC O-line vs Notre Dame D-line - It’s going to be extremely difficult for Notre Dame to match up with UNC’s skill players at receiver so the key will be the defensive line dominating up front like they did against Clemson versus the run while getting to the quarterback (like they did in overtime).
They need to make UNC as one-dimensional as possible.
Defense
Expectations for UNC’s defense weren’t nearly as high as they were on offense, but many thought they would be better than they are.
44th in SP+ is okay, but 5.7 YPP and allowing 30.8 points per game is not what they wanted.
Injuries have certainly played a big part of it. They lack depth at key spots so coordinator Jay Bateman has had a much tougher assignment than Longo.
FEI has UNC’s defense 77th and that feels closer to what I’ve seen from them.
Expected strengths
As you can imagine with some of the numbers they have given up, it’s not many strengths. They average to below average in most categories. They are 24th in sack rate, though. They have been able to get to the quarterback.
Former Notre Dame recruiting target Tomon Fox is a rush end for them and has been productive. He leads the team in tackles for loss (8.0).
Linebacker Chazz Surratt is a great athlete and is a dangerous blitzer. They send him on about 25% of drop backs. He leads the team in sacks and wins as a pass rusher frequently.
Potential Weaknesses
Out of the healthy players, they are solid in the front seven, but they don’t have anyone who would be considered an elite talent.
The run defense is not good, which is bad news even with Notre Dame missing people up front. They are 116th in stuff rate, give up 4.99 YPC on 1st down, and are 97th in opportunity rate. Being that low in opportunity rate means they are one of the worst in the country when it comes to holding running plays to four yards or less.
They have given up big plays in the passing game (20 receptions of 30 yards or more) and are one of the worst in the country at preventing them overall.
They’ve had some issues in coverage with communication with a young secondary. Wake Forest gashed them with some bunch formations.
Cornerback Patrice Rene has been good for them in coverage, but has tackled poorly. This is a player Notre Dame should run at and make him the unblocked defender.
Scheme
Bateman’s defense is a hybrid 3-4 scheme that can switch up fronts a lot. He’s very much a week to week guy with his game plan so Notre Dame will have to adjust on the fly to what they are seeing from the UNC defense.
He had a reputation as a “blitz happy” coordinator, but his teams have only blitzed on 118 of 340 drop backs. (34.7%).
When they played NC State, he blitzed only six times out of 48 drop backs.
Ian Book has to be aware of the delay blitz from them. He will often have a linebacker act like a spy on 3rd down and then rush after the protection is already engaged. I expect him to try this a fair amount to try and shut down Book as a scrambler.
Key Players
DE Tomon Fox - An above average edge rusher with a decent first step.
LB Chazz Surratt - A better athlete than linebacker. He can fly to the ball when he is unblocked, but will have bad reads, can get stuck on blocks, and is too inconsistent as a tackler.
CB Patrice Rene - 22 tackles, 10 miss tackles.
CB Storm Duck - Was projected to be their top corner. They have missed him a lot.
Key Matchup for Notre Dame
Notre Dame’s center vs NT Raymond Vohasek - We can assume the center will be Zeke Correll now that we know Tommy Kraemer will also be out. Correll will be lined up against Vohasek on most plays. He’s 6’3” 295, so not a goliath, but he’s a decent pass rusher and it should be a good test for Correll.
Special Teams
They are 100th in SP+ on special teams.
Kicker Grayson Atkins is 2 for 6 on kicks over 40 yards, but hasn’t had to be relied on with how explosive the offense has been.
Punter Ben Kiernan is not great, but he’s only punted 21 times in eight games.
They have talented returners, but haven’t blocked well for them to break anything.