Scouting Report | North Carolina
North Carolina came into the season as a top-10 ranked team in the country. Even though they lost some big time skill talent to the NFL, Mack Brown had recruited well enough to put them into a position to threaten Clemson in the ACC.
This was supposed to be the year that they took it to another level.
It hasn’t worked out that way with disappointing losses to Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Florida State. They’re looking at a .500 record through eight games if they can’t come in and beat Notre Dame and they’re not favored to do so.
The offense is still dangerous, but can be inconsistent. The defense has underwhelmed to say the least. They’re ranked 27th overall in F+ and this is only their third road game of the season. The first was all the way back with their season opener at Virginia Tech and the second was at Georgia Tech, both losses. Brown is 5-6 in road games during his second stint at UNC.
Injuries
CB Storm Duck (yes, that’s his real name) is week to week so we won’t likely see him in this game.
Third string RB Caleb Hood is possible to play, but he probably won’t see many carries if he does.
WR Beau Corrales has been out for most of the season and there hasn’t been any mention of him returning to the lineup this week. He’s a big body and a deep threat when he’s on the field.
Offense
Their offense has taken a step back from last season, but not a significant one. They’re currently ranked 12th in F+, 17th in yards per play, but only 44th in EPA per play.
When they’re good, they’re very good. The Irish have to prepare for them to be at their best after a bye week.
Notre Dame’s defense is likely going to be the toughest challenge they’ve faced even without Kyle Hamilton.
Expected Strengths
What makes this offense so difficult to defend is that they have great balance. They run it and throw it well. They do miss those two great backs they had last season, but Tennessee transfer Ty Chandler has been good for them and he’s had three plays of 50-yards or more.
The big difference this season compared to the last one is that the rely on quarterback Sam Howell more as a runner. He leads Power 5 quarterbacks in rushing yards (minus sacks).
Many of them are designed runs so it’s not just him scrambling.
They are 13th in 3rd down conversion rate and his mobility is a big part of that. He has rushed for 13 first downs on 3rd down this season. He only had 14 in his first two seasons at UNC.
Howell’s passing numbers have dipped this season, but that is to be expected after losing so many weapons. UNC is still plenty explosive through the air and are tied for 7th in receptions of 30-yards or more.
Slot receiver Josh Downs has emerged as a star, but he hasn’t been a consistent deep threat. Most of his yards come after the catch and he’s 2nd in the nation in YAC from the slot. He’s been targeted 84 times by Howell. The next most targeted receiver has only 26 targets.
Potential Weaknesses
Downs is the main option and much like USC with Drake London, UNC doesn’t have anyone else they trust to get the ball to. He’s going to get his touches, but the passing game is stagnant if he doesn’t go off.
They’ve given up 27 sacks on the season. Georgia Tech has only 13 sacks on the year and they had eight against UNC.
They are 123rd in sack rate. A good amount of the sacks are on Howell too with his tendency to lock on his first read for too long.
In their two road games they’ve given up 14 sacks.
Howell has fumbled seven times this season.
Scheme
Longo runs his version of the Air Raid. This isn’t the version that is all about slinging it all over the field. They will do that, but they will take advantage of matchups whether that’s running or throwing. They are 53% run on the season and could run 4 verts on any given snap (18.4% deep shots for Howell), but they don’t attack as much as they did last year with this group of receivers.
They were much more run heavy in the red zone last season (58.8% compared to over 70% in 2020), but the key there is that Howell has almost as many red zone carries (13) as Chandler (14).
They run RPO a lot. Probably as much as anybody in the country. Overall they run some kind of play-action fake on 50.7% of Howell’s drop backs.
Key Players
QB Sam Howell - Rushing numbers are way up, but his yards per attempt and pass efficiency has dipped by 1.5 yards and 22 points respectively. A lot of that has to do with less talent around him.
WR Josh Downs - Has at least eight catches in every game this season.
RB Ty Chandler - He’s averaging five forced missed tackles per game.
Key for Notre Dame
Dominate up front
Notre Dame played solid assignment football against UNC last season when they shut down the Tar Heels for three quarters. Everyone looks good executing their assignments when the defensive line is dominating the line of scrimmage, though. They couldn’t run and Howell was pressured all game long. He was sacked six times.
If they have a similar sack number on Saturday, it’s going to be a win for the Irish.
Defense
The offense sliding down a notch was expected, but this was supposed to be the year when the defense took off at UNC. Instead they have been average to below average.
They’re 66th in F+, 68th in YPP, 83rd in points per drive, and 79th in EPA per play.
Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia really gave them some trouble.
Expected Strengths
What is UNC good at on defense? That is a tough question to answer. They’ve had some good stretches of play, but they haven’t played great team defense this season.
That doesn’t mean they don’t have talented individuals. DT Myles Murphy is an ascending player and might be the best 3-tech the Irish have faced this season. DE Tomon Fox is a solid edge rusher who leads their team in pressures.
LB Cedric Gray is a good cover linebacker and he has stood out to me when watching them. Tony Grimes hasn’t become a star cornerback like he was projected to be, but he’s certainly a good player.
They have the athletes that can play with just about anybody and their best players are young players.
Potential Weaknesses
They’ve given up too many big plays in the passing game. They are 74th in pass efficiency and Clemson transfer Kyler McMichael has struggled at the one corner. He’s giving up 16.2 yards per reception and a 149.4 passer rating.
They’re also 74th in sack rate and don’t generate a ton of pressure on the quarterback.
The run defense hasn’t been great and they’ve especially had issues with mobile quarterbacks. Both Georgia Tech’s Jeff Sims and FSU’s Jordan Travis went off against them so we may see a bit more Tyler Buchner this week.
They are 99th in stuff rate and 94th in tackling grade according to PFF. Their secondary as a whole hasn’t tackled well and safety Trey Morrison, nickel back Ja’Quorious Conley, and McMichael have very low tackling percentages.
When you don’t rush the passer well, the 3rd down defense is going to suffer and it has. They are 83rd in conversion rate.
Scheme
Bateman’s defense is a hybrid 3-4 scheme that can switch up fronts a lot. He’s very much a week to week guy with his game plan so Notre Dame will have to adjust on the fly to what they are seeing from the UNC defense, especially with them having the bye week.
He had a reputation as a “blitz happy” coordinator at his previous stops, but he hasn’t been that way at UNC. They slanted their line a lot last year against Notre Dame and I would expect they’re going to try and do as much of that as possible in this matchup.
Key Players
DT Myles Murphy - Leads their team in TFLs (8.5) and sacks (4.0).
Edge Tomon Fox - High motor player with a good first step.
LB Cedric Gray - Asked to do a lot in their defense. Has seven Havoc plays, including two interceptions.
CB Tony Grimes - Their top corner, but has had seven flags thrown against him this season.
Key for Notre Dame
Expand what they did vs USC
This is a week where what Notre Dame does matters more than the matchup. They need to continue to do more of what found them success against USC and hopefully use some poor tackling from UNC to produce more explosive plays on Saturday.
Special Teams
K Grayson Atkins is 6 of 10 on field, but three of his four misses have come from over 50-yards.
P Ben Kiernan is averaging over 45 yards per punt.
DB Giovanni Biggers has blocked two punts this season and they’ve blocked three kicks overall.
Overview
It’s going to be a priority to contain Howell as a runner and make him pay when he does run. He was pinballing off of Miami defenders who didn’t wrap up a couple of weeks ago.
Those sack numbers for them on the road is a massive red flag and something that could swing the game in a big way towards Notre Dame.
Much like USC, the offense can be scary because they can put up points at any time, but they also don’t have a defense that has proven they can keep teams out of the end zone. This matchup will still be a tough one, but not nearly as difficult as it looked before the season.