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Notre Dame Football

Scouting Report | Virginia

November 10, 2021
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At the beginning of the season, Virginia was probably in the middle of the pack if anyone was ranking Notre Dame’s most difficult games. As the season progressed and we got to see more of the Cavaliers and their offense, it kept moving up the list as one of the toughest tests that the Irish will have to overcome.

Bronco Mendenhall coached at BYU for over a decade and this looks more like some of the teams he coached there than the ones he has coached since moving to Virginia in 2016. They play shootouts and have won the majority of them.

They come into this game with a 6-3 record and 4-2 record in the Coastal division in the ACC. They have two more conference games left and will make the ACC Championship game if they win both.

That might be something to think about in regards to how they handle this matchup with Notre Dame. It means something for them to beat a top-10 team, but there is risk involved with the importance of the two games after this week.

Injuries

There are some injuries to players who have been out for a while, but the only significant injury that matters at the moment are the broken ribs of Brennan Armstrong.

The injury occurred during their loss to BYU and he left that game and didn’t return. Mendenhall said he will be a game-time decision this week and the assumption should be that he will play, even if it’s best for him to sit out another week before the final two ACC games.

Offense

Virginia has...an awesome offense? Yes, it’s true. They are one of the best offenses in college football.

They’re 8th in FEI, 7th in SP+, 10th in points per drive, 2nd in EPA per play, and 4th in yards per play.

They’ve scored 30 or more points in eight of nine games and have scored 39 or more in six games.

Expected Strengths

Armstrong leads the nation in total offense. He’s mobile, accurate, and throws a really good deep ball. He’s the one who makes them so good.

They spread the ball around so there isn’t one player to focus on like some of the other teams Notre Dame has faced this fall. Four receivers have 50+ targets. TE Jelani Woods has 46 targets.

Woods is 8 of 10 on contested catches. At 6’7” 265, he’s a matchup problem.

Dontayvion Wicks is averaging 23.1 yards per reception and Ra’Shaun Henry is averaging 17.6. 44.8% of Wicks’ targets are deep (20+ air yards) and 47.1% of Henry’s are as well.

Former QB Keytaon Thompson is big (6’4”) and plays in the slot most of the time. He has great instincts with the ball in his hands and has forced 17 missed tackles as a WR in addition to 21 as a runner. They use him in a variety of ways and Notre Dame has to prepare for him as a receiver, runner, and passer.

The running game isn’t prolific, but it has been efficient. They are 26th in average line yards and are pretty solid across the board up front.

They are 16th in 3rd down conversion percentage and a lot of that has to do with them being in 3rd and short or 3rd and medium more often than not.

Potential Weaknesses

Armstrong averaged 6.4 carries per game (not including sacks) and their lead back only averages only 6.9 carries per game. That gives you an idea of how big of a piece Armstrong is to the running game.

The only two games they broke over 200-yards rushing vs FBS competition was their last two and Armstrong had 99 and 94-yards.

If he’s available, how much will he run in this game because of those ribs? Taking that element away from them takes away a valuable piece from their offense.

They haven’t played any good defenses this season. Notre Dame may not be as good as they’ve been on defense in the last few years, especially from a talent perspective, but it will be the best defense Virginia has played this season.

If Armstrong can’t play, Jay Woolfolk is expected to be the quarterback. He’s attempted only six passes in his career. He’s another dual-threat, but it would be fair to expect a big drop off as a passer if he’s playing.

Scheme

They play at a fairly fast tempo. They are 6th in plays per game.

It’s a heavy pass offense, 64.1% pass (5th), and it’s another version of the Air Raid.

Coming off of a bye, Notre Dame should expect to see plenty of double reverses, double passes, and misdirection from them. They average 8.6 deep shots per game and aren’t afraid to attack deep at any time.

I mentioned Thompson as a runner and he will line up in the Wildcat. He has 32 carries on the season.

TE Grant Misch is their blocking tight end that they will keep him  in pass protection as well. He’s used as a blocker far more frequently than Woods.

Key Players

QB Brennan Armstrong - They’re never out of any game with him and his ability to extend plays might be his greatest strength.

WR Dontayvion Wicks - He’s second in the country in receptions of 20-yards or more. His average depth of target is 19.9 yards.

TE Jelani Woods - 24 of his 29 catches have gone for 1st downs.

WR Keytaon Thompson - David Bell, Drake London, and John Metchie are the only Power 5 receivers who have forced more missed tackles than him.

Key for Notre Dame

Win in the red zone

Virginia is going to get their yards. The key will be not allowing them to get touchdowns on every drive. If that’s forcing turnovers, then great. If it’s holding them to field goal attempts, that’s something Notre Dame will take any time.

Wake Forest held them to their lower point total of the season (17). They gave up over 400 yards passing, but held Virginia to one touchdown on five red zone trips.

Notre Dame is 4th in the country in red zone touchdown percentage.

Defense

Virginia had top-35 defenses in 2017 and 2018. Mendenhall’s defenses at BYU were consistently pretty good as well.

They aren’t anywhere close to that this season. It’s a bad defense that has been lit up repeatedly.

They are 105th in FEI, 82nd in SP+, 110th in points per drive, 116th in YPP, and 120th in EPA per play.

Expected Strengths

Um, well… S Joey Blount is a highly productive player and LB Noah Taylor has double digit Havoc plays for them. They are two players who stand out on their defense.

For all of their struggles, they’ve been surprisingly good in the red zone. They’re 24th in red zone touchdown percentage.

Potential Weaknesses

The run defense is atrocious. They are 122nd in average line yards, 118th in stuff rate, and give up 5.72 yards per carry (123rd). North Carolina, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and BYU ravaged them on the ground.

They’ve allowed 22 runs of 20-yards or more (126th). Kyren Williams might go for 200 against them.

They don’t have a dynamic pass rusher and are 122nd in sack rate. They have only 11 sacks on the season and seven of them came in two games.

Their Havoc Rate is 14%. They don’t have enough playmakers and don’t force offenses into negative plays. They’re 115th in tackles for loss per game.

Big play opportunities will be there in the passing game as well. They’re 80th in yards per attempt there are matchups to take advantage of.

Scheme

They’ve switched to a 3-3-5 from the 3-4 they used to run. It hasn’t exactly been smooth because they haven’t hit on enough of the 2 and 3-star kids who end up being NFL prospects the same way they did earlier with Mendenhall.

They blitz quarterbacks only 24.4% of the time. That’s way down from where they were in recent years when they were around 40%. I think that is partially because they don’t have the same kind of blitzers at inside linebacker.

I’d expect a good amount of drop eight when Notre Dame goes empty on 3rd downs. They are already a pretty heavy zone team so it makes sense to see that quite a bit.

Key Players

DE Mandy Alonso - Their best player up front. Not dominant, but solid at the point of attack.

LB Noah Taylor - Long and can be disruptive. Leads the team with 11.5 Havoc plays and blocked a kick.

S Joey Blount - Very vocal. The only player with more than one interception on their defense.

Key for Notre Dame

Stay patient with the running game

If they do, then Kyren Williams is going to break one. Maybe two. Maybe Logan Diggs and Chris Tyree will as well. Throw in Tyler Buchner and he might break a long one too.

That’s what Virginia does. They have far too many breakdowns whether it’s run fits or tackling or not enough speed in the back eight to make plays. If Notre Dame keeps at it and, the dam will break.

Special Teams

Brendan Farrell took over as the kicker a few games into the season and is 8 of 9 on field goals. His only miss was over 50 yards.

P Jacob Finn has been very good for them. He’s averaging 46.4 yards per punt.

Overview

If Armstrong doesn’t play, then Notre Dame should win the game comfortably. If he does, and we should expect that he will, then this could be a game that is similar to North Carolina where they are going to get their yards, but it will come down to Notre Dame creating turnovers and stopping them in the red zone.

The Irish are going to have to score points because it’s inevitable that Virginia is going to eventually find the end zone. The way this will likely go is it will be both teams scoring, but the loser will simply not score enough.

 
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