Scouting Report | Georgia Tech
Last season Georgia Tech was a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde team. One week they’d look good and the next they’d look horrible. This season they’ve looked better at times, but they are what their record says they are: a 3-7 football team.
Things were supposed to be different in Geoff Collins’ third season. They clearly upgraded the talent and have a top-40 roster on paper. They don’t play games on paper, though, and the program hasn’t taken the steps many thought they would.
If they bring their A game, then they could present a challenge to Notre Dame. If they don’t, then the Yellow Jackets are looking at 3-8 with Georgia up next.
Injuries
The big one is quarterback Jeff Sims. His status is uncertain after missing last week’s game against Boston College. He has dynamic ability as a runner and although backup Jordan Yates has plenty of experience, he’s not the same type of dual-threat that Sims is.
Offense
I think it’s fair to say that the transition on offense from the old Paul Johnson triple option has been completed. They now have the kind of personnel on this side of the ball to do everything they want to do within a modern offense.
They are pretty average all the way around with some upside to that with a couple of great athletes. They are 53rd in EPA per play, 60th in SP+, 75th in FEI, 55th in yards per play.
Expected Strengths
I mentioned how Sims has taken a leap this year as a passer, but that’s important because he just needs to be above average there. It’s his running ability that makes him difficult to defend. He’s averaging 7.7 yards per carry (minus sacks) and he can break one if he gets space.
It’s that element combined with the ability of one of the top backs in the country that make the offense go. Jahmyr Gibbs is second in the country in all-purpose yards. He leads their team in receptions and has explosive ability. He can take one to the house on any play whether it’s a run, pass, or in the return game.
Jordan Mason (5.3 YPC) is a really good number two back as well. The running game is legitimately dangerous no matter who is on the field. They’re 43rd in average line yards and are 10th in rushing plays of 20-yards or more.
Potential Weaknesses
Sims has a fumbling problem. He has five fumbles this season despite missing a few games and had 10 last season. Add in that they are poor at protecting the quarterback (85th in sack rate) and you can see how that’s a problem.
They play bad situational football. They are 86th in 3rd down conversion rate and are 111th in red zone touchdown rate.
Outside of Gibbs, they don’t have a consistent dynamic presence at the receiver position.
Scheme
They are a 53.6% run team and around 30% play-action (a little bit more with Sims than with Yates). It’s not a team that takes a ton of deep shots down the field, but that has more to do with personnel than anything else.
Notre Dame has to be aware of Gibbs running a wheel at any time and don’t want to get caught in a bad matchup.
Designed runs with Sims is a given and they have to account for him every time he drops back. Zone read is a big part of the offense as well.
Key Players
RB Jahmyr Gibbs - He has a run, a reception, and a return over 70-yards.
RB Jordan Mason - Would start on many Power 5 teams.
WR Kyric McGowan - Northwestern transfer leads the team with seven touchdown receptions.
QB Jeff Sims - His completion percentage is up 5% in 2021 and his YPC is up over two yards.
Key for Notre Dame
Don’t let Gibbs beat them in the passing game
Stopping the run seems obvious. They have to contain Sims and win up front as much as possible to stop Gibbs and Mason.
But the big test will be not letting Gibbs turn a short pass into a big play as a receiver. Take that part away and Tech is limited in the passing game.
Defense
Collins coached a lot of great defenses before he got to Georgia Tech. That’s why it’s shocking that they have been so bad in his third season.
They’re 95th in EPA per play, 111th in YPP, 81st in SP+, 105th in FEI, and 101st in points per drive.
They were 116th in YPP in the month of October and are 122nd in November. It’s not trending well for this defense.
Expected Strengths
It’s not a long list.
They are 28th in Power Success Rate, so they’ve been good in short yardage defense. They haven’t given up many big plays on the ground (25th in runs of 20-yards or more allowed).
The linebackers are downhill players who flash as blitzers.
That about sums it up.
Potential Weaknesses
They’ve added a number of high profile transfers in the transfer portal, but they’ve had very little of those guys work out well.
The front seven doesn’t have any game wreckers and they have a 14% Havoc Rate on the season. The pass rush has been bad. They’re 111th in sack rate with only 16 sacks on the year. Here’s where it gets even worse: 8 of those came in one game (against North Carolina).
They’re 92nd in stuff rate and the run defense has regressed as the season has gone on.
It’s the pass defense that has really let them down. The secondary is a mess and the lack of pass rush has amplified their issues. They are 130th in EPA per pass, 125th in yards per attempt allowed and 126th in pass efficiency defense. They’re 118th in receptions of 30-yards or more so big plays are there for the taking against them if Notre Dame can connect deep.
They’re 117th in 3rd down defense.
Scheme
They run a 4-2-5 scheme, but they switched it up and played three down a lot against North Carolina. With how well that worked out getting to Sam Howell, I’m surprised they haven’t embraced that more often.
They want to be aggressive and sometimes are too much as they have been burned on counters and misdirection. They are missing the “dudes” necessary to be the kind of defense Collins wants to be at all three levels and have to play more zone than he has at previous stops.
Key Players
DL Jared Ivey - 6’6” 275 with some flashes of dominance.
LB Charlie Thomas - Speedy backer who leads the team with 13 Havoc plays, including 10 tackles for loss.
LB Ayinde Eley - Delivers as a blitzer. He leads the team in pressures, but isn’t a strong player in coverage.
S Juanyeh Thomas - A playmaker that plays about ⅓ of his snaps in the box. 11.5 Havoc plays.
Key for Notre Dame
Get it going early
This is a defense that can’t have much confidence at the moment. If things go bad for them early in the game, they might fold.
The Irish haven’t been a good first quarter offense, but if they can change that against Georgia Tech, then this one could get very ugly.
Special Teams
K Brent Cimaglia is 11 of 15 on field goals, but he has yet to make one that is 40-yards or longer.
P David Shanahan is averaging 42.5 yards per punt.
There one thing to worry about and it’s Gibbs as a kick returner. He took one to the house against Boston College last week. Notre Dame should never kick to him.
There’s somethings that they have to worry about as well. They’ve had four kicks blocked this season.
Overview
Georgia Tech has played a lot of close games, but the one where they got blown out was against Pitt. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Pitt was the best team they’ve faced this fall. Tech lost by 31.
Notre Dame is the far better team in this matchup and Georgia Tech will have to play significantly better on defense as well as having a monster day running the ball to have a chance at pulling off the upset.