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Notre Dame Football

Scouting Report | Boston College

November 16, 2022
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Jeff Hafley couldn’t have arrived at Boston College in a more adverse time. His first season was the Covid year of 2020 and they managed to overachieve and finished 6-5. The next year they underwhelmed with a 6-6 record, but the former Ohio State defensive coordinator looked like he had set things up for BC to take a step up in year three.

That hasn’t happened. It’s been a nightmare scenario for injuries on an already inexperienced offensive line and the offense has regressed to one of the worst in the country.

They’re 3-7, ranked 97th in F+, and there are only three Power 5 programs ranked below them.

They are coming off of a comeback win against a ranked NC State team on the road and with some younger players seeing the field, they have found some life in recent weeks. A win over Notre Dame could change the narrative of their season to point to a hopeful future, but they’ll be in tough going up against the Irish.

Injuries

They have three offensive linemen who are out for the season and all were starters. They were bad even before that so you can imagine how things have gone since then.

DL Shitta Sillah is out for the season with a shoulder injury.

QB Phil Jurkovec missed the Duke and NC State games with a knee injury. If he’s healthy, I’m not even sure he plays in this game because QB Emmett Morehead has played fairly well in their last two games.

CB Amari Jackson has been good as a true freshman, but injured his hamstring vs Duke. He missed the NC State game.

Offense

It’s been a rough year for former Notre Dame tight ends coach John McNulty, now the offensive coordinator at BC. The offensive line injuries haven’t given them much of a chance at success despite some pretty good skill talent.

They are 103rd in OF+, 122nd in points per drive, and 122nd in YPP vs FBS comp.

Expected Strengths

WR Zay Flowers is one of the best receivers in the country. If he was on another team, he’d be an All-American candidate. He’s tied for 7th in the country in receptions of 40-yards or more, he’s 14th in the country in yards after catch per reception, and he’s a deep threat on any given play.

They line him up all over the place and Notre Dame will have to have a plan for him on each snap.

Former ND TE George Takacs has been solid for them. He’s a quality player and true freshman Joseph Griffin, a former ND recruiting target, has come on in the last four weeks with a 100-yard game against Duke and the winning touchdown catch against NC State. He’s going to be a player for them.

Potential Weaknesses

They have the worst run blocking grade from PFF out of any Power 5 team. The offensive line has been a problem all season. They can’t run the football.

They are 115th in EPA per rush, 119th in opportunity rate, and 131st in stuff rate. They are dead last in the country in yards per carry.

They have struggled to protect the quarterback all season and are 116th in sack rate. They give up a ton of pressure and struggle in one on one matchups. They’ve allowed 10 sacks in the last two games against Duke (58th in sack rate) and NC State (84th). Notre Dame is 11th in the country in sack rate.

Jurkovec has been under pressure on 43.3% of drop backs and has completed only 44.6% of his throws for 5.5 yards per attempt. Morehead has been pressured on 40.1% of drop backs and he’s only completed 39.5% of those throws for 6.5 YPA. It’s all not good when you know pressure is inevitable.

They are 122nd in 3rd down offense. Moorhead has completed less than 50% of his passes on the money down, which is pretty typical for a young quarterback. They are 97th in red zone touchdown percentage. When you can’t run the ball, it limits things in the red zone.

Scheme

They will try to play at a pretty fast tempo and catch teams off-guard at times. 

They are 64.3% pass in their last three games. They aren’t even trying to run the ball much anymore, but will use Moorhead or Jurkovec in the running game.

They play a lot of 12 personnel on early downs so it will be interesting to see if Notre Dame decides to play more nickel in this game or with three linebackers.

Moorhead dropped back to pass 114 times in the last two games. That feels like a recipe for disaster against this Notre Dame defense, but BC might not have a choice but to do the same because of the limitations in the running game.

Key Players

WR Zay Flowers - A shining light in their dark season. He’s averaging 92 yards per game and has 10 touchdowns.

WR Joseph Griffin - Has caught 9 of 11 contested targets this season.

QB Phil Jurkovec - Not the season he was hoping for. His last appearance for BC featured two picks in a loss to UCONN.

QB Emmett Morehead - Two straight 300-yard passing games, but 93 pass attempts to get there.

Key for Notre Dame

Limit Flowers and dominate up front

It’s a pretty simple formula. They have one true game-wrecker and Notre Dame is likely going to bracket him as much as possible. Notre Dame should be able to get home with four rushers a decent amount, but I also think Al Golden won’t be shy with bringing pressure to try and rattle the young quarterback.

Defense

The one thing you can say about BC’s defense is that they play hard. This group competes, even if they are deficient in some areas.

They are 78th in DF+, 76th in points per drive, and 56th in YPP vs FBS competition.

Expected Strengths

They are 18th in stuff rate (runs of zero yards or less). That starts up front where they are pretty solid across the board. DT Chibueze Onwuka is very good against the run.

They have a 17% Havoc rate and it’s led by edge Donovan Ezeiruaku. He leads the team in tackles for loss (11.5) and has 15.5 havoc plays. He’s also their best pass rusher.

CB Elijah Jones is a good corner. He has given up some plays and he might get a little bit grabby, but he competes hard. He has 12 pass breakups and 17 total havoc plays to his credit.

Potential Weaknesses

They are 109th in EPA per rush. They don’t have great team speed on defense and it shows. They've allowed 200 yard rushing games in their last two games against Duke and NC State. They’re 92nd in the country in runs of 10-yards or more against them.

This isn’t a run defense that is on par with Navy’s or Clemson’s, that’s for sure.

Starting linebackers Kam Arnold and Bryce Steele have been below average in coverage. Look for some of those wheel routes to hit against them this week.

Scheme

Hafley and defensive coordinator Tem Lukabu aren’t big pressure guys. They like to rush with four and play coverage a lot, but one would have to think they’ll ratchet things up a bit after seeing how Drew Pyne handled the blitz last week.

They play four down and Michael Mayer against any of their linebackers should be a huge advantage for the Irish. Normally they are the kind of team that likes to keep stuff in front of them and tackle.

We may see them give up plenty of free access stuff outside and Notre Dame has to take those.

Key Players

DE Donovan Ezeiruaku - He’s the 6th ranked edge defender in the country by PFF.

LB Vinny DePalma - Leads the team in tackles and is their best all-around player at the position.

CB Elijah Jones - Nine flags thrown against him this year. For that reason alone, Notre Dame has to go at him.

Key for Notre Dame

Stay aggressive

BC’s defense has had to play knowing they have a bad offense all year. This group is better than the numbers would indicate. They’ll keep playing hard all game and if there is let up by the Irish offense at any point, they aren’t going to have success.

If Notre Dame stays aggressive all game, they’re going to move the ball and put up plenty of points.

Special Teams

K Connor Lyton is 8 of 14 on field goals. Their kicking game has been a problem.

P Danny Longman is averaging 41.5 yards per punt. They’ve had two kicks blocked this season and they are third in the country in total punts. Keep that in mind with the way Notre Dame has blocked punts this season.

Overview

This isn’t a good BC team. They could have easily lied down after the loss to UCONN, though, but haven’t. They played hard against Duke and NC State and will against the Irish as well.

The game is a lot more intriguing if Phil Jurkovec is playing, simply because of his history at Notre Dame, but whether he does or not, it shouldn’t matter. The Irish have a big advantage against their offensive line and should be able to get back on track running the football this week.

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