Photo by Rick Kimball/ISD
Notre Dame Football
On The Way Up
August 17, 2017
6,195
Notre Dame may have had more talent than a typical 4-8 football team last year, but they finished with more losses than wins for a reason.
It's tough to win football games, period. It's a lot tougher when you can't run the ball or rush the passer very well.
The good news is that these are areas that I expect Notre Dame to be much better at in 2017. And because of that, I think it will definitely make a difference in the win column this fall.
I have some predictions for how much I see them improving from last season. They may not go from bad to the best in the nation, but they are going to be much better.
Saying Notre Dame did a poor job of getting to the quarterback last season is an understatement. It took them until their fourth game to record their first sack. They ended up with only 14 on the season, which put them tied for 118th in the nation.
When using Football Outsiders' Adjusted Sack Rate as a measurement, they were equally as bad (115th). ASR is "an opponent-adjusted version of a team's sack rate -- sacks divided by (sacks plus passes), presented on a scale in which 100 is perfectly average, above 100 is good, below 100 is bad".
The three years they have been keeping track of the stat, the Irish have not broken 100. Last year they put up a dreadful 64.2. To add perspective to that number, Michigan was 1st in Adjusted Sack Rate and they finished with 185.2.
Wake Forest was 16th in ASR at 138.3 last season.
Mike Elko's scheme certainly won't hurt Notre Dame's chances of improving their sack numbers this fall, but the maturation of the young pass rushers on the roster should make an even bigger impact. I think there is zero chance of them coming back and putting up 14 sacks again.
They may not be one of the best pass rushing teams in the nation, but they'll be much better than they have been.
Prediction: 30 sacks and improving to the top 50 in Adjusted Sack Rate
I wrote about this a few months ago. To remind everyone, Havoc Rate is adding up tackles for loss (including sacks), forced fumbles, and defensed passes (interceptions plus pass breakups) divided by the total number of defensive plays. It's a more thorough statistic than just sacks and TFLs.
Unsurprisingly, Notre Dame did not create a lot of havoc last season. Their havoc rate was at 13.4%, 102nd in the nation. Wake Forest's havoc rate was 18.1%, 28th in the nation.
Getting to that number is achievable for the Irish. I think they may fall a bit short of that, but still show drastic improvement. The biggest reason I believe that will happen is the emphasis they are putting into creating havoc in practice.
Every practice I have been to they have done a circuit where groups of player rotate through drills working on deflecting passes at the line of scrimmage, punching out the football at the catch point, and other ways of creating turnovers.
I'm a big believer that you achieve what you emphasize. The emphasis on havoc is going to pay off for the Irish this season.
Prediction: In the 17% range in Havoc Rate, top 40 in the nation
It's tough to win games when you don't play good defense or run the ball well. Notre Dame did neither for most of last season. The running the ball part was especially discouraging because of the success they had the previous year.
Total rushing dropped to 163 yards per game, 80th in the nation. They averaged only 4.47 yards per carry. 80th in the country in rushing should never happen at Notre Dame.
I can't see the same thing happening and it's not just because Chip Long has preached that they are going to continue to feed the ball to the trio of talented backs on the roster.
The offensive line is better. Unlike last summer, Josh Adams is coming into the season healthy. Tony Jones Jr. is an upgrade over the 2016 version of Tarean Folston that was coming off of a serious knee injury. Dexter Williams is a better player than he was a year ago as well.
Improvement from the players and the addition of a faster tempo to the offense is going to result in more big plays on the ground. I see a big bounce back from the running game this fall. The quality of the defenses they play may affect the numbers and the overall ranking, but even with that I expect the improvement to be obvious.
Prediction: Over 5.0 yards per carry and just under 200 yards rushing per game.
It's tough to win football games, period. It's a lot tougher when you can't run the ball or rush the passer very well.
The good news is that these are areas that I expect Notre Dame to be much better at in 2017. And because of that, I think it will definitely make a difference in the win column this fall.
I have some predictions for how much I see them improving from last season. They may not go from bad to the best in the nation, but they are going to be much better.
Sacks
Saying Notre Dame did a poor job of getting to the quarterback last season is an understatement. It took them until their fourth game to record their first sack. They ended up with only 14 on the season, which put them tied for 118th in the nation.
When using Football Outsiders' Adjusted Sack Rate as a measurement, they were equally as bad (115th). ASR is "an opponent-adjusted version of a team's sack rate -- sacks divided by (sacks plus passes), presented on a scale in which 100 is perfectly average, above 100 is good, below 100 is bad".
The three years they have been keeping track of the stat, the Irish have not broken 100. Last year they put up a dreadful 64.2. To add perspective to that number, Michigan was 1st in Adjusted Sack Rate and they finished with 185.2.
Wake Forest was 16th in ASR at 138.3 last season.
Mike Elko's scheme certainly won't hurt Notre Dame's chances of improving their sack numbers this fall, but the maturation of the young pass rushers on the roster should make an even bigger impact. I think there is zero chance of them coming back and putting up 14 sacks again.
They may not be one of the best pass rushing teams in the nation, but they'll be much better than they have been.
Prediction: 30 sacks and improving to the top 50 in Adjusted Sack Rate
Havoc Rate
I wrote about this a few months ago. To remind everyone, Havoc Rate is adding up tackles for loss (including sacks), forced fumbles, and defensed passes (interceptions plus pass breakups) divided by the total number of defensive plays. It's a more thorough statistic than just sacks and TFLs.
Unsurprisingly, Notre Dame did not create a lot of havoc last season. Their havoc rate was at 13.4%, 102nd in the nation. Wake Forest's havoc rate was 18.1%, 28th in the nation.
Getting to that number is achievable for the Irish. I think they may fall a bit short of that, but still show drastic improvement. The biggest reason I believe that will happen is the emphasis they are putting into creating havoc in practice.
Every practice I have been to they have done a circuit where groups of player rotate through drills working on deflecting passes at the line of scrimmage, punching out the football at the catch point, and other ways of creating turnovers.
I'm a big believer that you achieve what you emphasize. The emphasis on havoc is going to pay off for the Irish this season.
Prediction: In the 17% range in Havoc Rate, top 40 in the nation
Rushing Offense
It's tough to win games when you don't play good defense or run the ball well. Notre Dame did neither for most of last season. The running the ball part was especially discouraging because of the success they had the previous year.
Total rushing dropped to 163 yards per game, 80th in the nation. They averaged only 4.47 yards per carry. 80th in the country in rushing should never happen at Notre Dame.
I can't see the same thing happening and it's not just because Chip Long has preached that they are going to continue to feed the ball to the trio of talented backs on the roster.
The offensive line is better. Unlike last summer, Josh Adams is coming into the season healthy. Tony Jones Jr. is an upgrade over the 2016 version of Tarean Folston that was coming off of a serious knee injury. Dexter Williams is a better player than he was a year ago as well.
Improvement from the players and the addition of a faster tempo to the offense is going to result in more big plays on the ground. I see a big bounce back from the running game this fall. The quality of the defenses they play may affect the numbers and the overall ranking, but even with that I expect the improvement to be obvious.
Prediction: Over 5.0 yards per carry and just under 200 yards rushing per game.
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