Photo by Rick Kimball/ISD
Notre Dame Football
September to Remember?
August 21, 2017
4,961
How important is a fast start to the season in college football? Arguably more important than any other sport.
An early season loss might not completely derail national championship hopes, but it's definitely not the track anyone wants to be on. It can take awhile for things to get back on the correct path after that. It can often lead programs with high expectations in August to simply scrape by once they get to November.
It's not a coincidence that of the four times that Notre Dame has won 10 games or more since 2002, they went undefeated in September in three of those years. The other season they won 10, with Charlie Weis in '06, they went 4-1.
Bursting out of the blocks even allows teams that close with a whimper down the stretch, like the '02 and '15 teams, to achieve that often elusive double digit win goal.
Brian Kelly has had mixed results in the opening month of the season since arriving at Notre Dame. In his three seasons, at Cincinnati he went 12-1 during the first month of the season. That went a long way to him winning 10, 11, and 12 games in each of those years. He hasn't come close to that level of success at Notre Dame in consecutive years and his teams struggling out of the gate have a lot to do with that.
Overall (including the games that have kicked off in late August), he's 20-10 in his seven seasons in the team's opening month. His first season he went 1-3 and he put up the same record last season. Take those out and 18-4 in five years is not all that bad, but they do count all the Ws and Ls. They can't be stripped away from his record.
Before we get into this season, let's take a look back at the start of each year for Kelly at Notre Dame and how his team's fared under him.
This was definitely not the start that Kelly envisioned when he took over the program. They went 1-3 in September before eventually bouncing back to finish 8-5.
The win came against an over-matched Purdue team, which was then followed by close losses to Michigan and Michigan State. It was the start of a trend of close losses in September games for Kelly. 7 of his 10 early season losses have been by one score or less.
The third loss came against a really good Stanford team in Jim Harbaugh's last season there.
An 0-2 start pretty much killed the season before it began. Two more should-have-been wins against South Florida and Michigan were deflating.
They beat Michigan State and Pitt after, but the damage was already done.
A dominating win over Navy in Ireland, a close victory against Purdue, a tough fought road win over Michigan State, and the defense carrying them over Michigan finally resulted in a 4-0 record for Kelly in September.
Everyone knows that team might have had the most flaws out of any recent undefeated regular season team in college football, but they had a belief in each other that propelled them to close wins early and it stayed with them throughout the year.
This might be the strangest September in terms of results. The Irish went 3-2 with two losses against ranked teams (Michigan and Oklahoma) and two wins against unranked teams (Temple and Purdue).
That's more disappointing than anything else, but here comes the weird part: they also won a game against Michigan State, Sparty's only loss of that season.
Michigan State beat Michigan and Stanford (two teams Notre Dame lost to) and were the only team to beat Ohio State that season.
In a twisted way, it's one of Kelly's better wins on his resumé as the head coach at Notre Dame. On the opposite side of it, it shows how truly disappointing that season was for that to be the ceiling and Notre Dame to only finish at 9-4.
With Everett Golson back from suspension, the Irish had their best ever start to a season under Kelly. They were 4-0 in the first month and won those games against Rice, Michigan, Purdue, and Syracuse by an average of 23.5 points per game.
We know how that season went downhill with a total collapse in November with injuries playing a part. The loss at Florida State and how they lost was also a major factor.
This isn't a September stat, but it is interesting to note that Kelly was 43-15 (.741 winning percentage) at Notre Dame before the Florida State game. He's been 16-16 since then.
4-0 again and it ultimately led to 10 wins on the season. They whooped Texas, had an epic DeShone Kizer to Will Fuller led comeback against Virginia, dominated Georgia Tech, and put it on UMASS.
Well, no one saw this coming in year seven for Kelly. Another 1-3 with close losses to Texas, Michigan State, and Duke. The only win came against Nevada.
There were a lot of reasons for the lack of success in '16, but the poor start was largely on the defense. The complete destruction by Texas of the Irish defense and the 3rd quarter against Michigan State where they might as well have been running against air stand out in particular.
The start to last season cost Brian VanGorder his job. In reality, it should have never got to that point.
That's how Kelly got to 20-10 in September.
Has the schedule been a big factor?
Yes and no. It would be ideal to take out one big match-up each year and switch it with a Group of 5 opponent, but Kelly has not won enough in those big early season match-ups.
Three losses against Michigan, two against Michigan State, one against Texas, one against Oklahoma, and one against Stanford. Those are eight reasons that back Mike's thought that they need to schedule easier earlier in the year. It would be fair to argue that on Kelly's behalf.
When looking at the overall record against those teams, Kelly is 2-3 vs Michigan, 3-2 vs MSU, 1-1 vs Texas, 1-1 vs Oklahoma, and 0-1 vs Stanford (2-5 overall vs the Cardinal). It's just as fair to argue that Kelly needs to be better than under .500 against those teams.
Even though the schedule was tough, particularly in '10 and '13, I think it's only a small factor in the inconsistency in September for Kelly at Notre Dame.
In '10 he lost to all three of Michigan, Michigan State, and Stanford. In '13 he lost to Michigan and Oklahoma. In '16 he lost to Texas and Michigan State. I do believe that it would be better to only have to play one "marquee" opponent every season, but if you're playing two, the Irish have to at least split in those games.
And no matter who else is on the schedule, you can't lose to USF and Duke. There is no excuse for that in any year.
We'll just have to wait and see, but Notre Dame appears to have caught a break with Michigan State trending down. This shouldn't be one of Mark Dantonio's better teams. While it's expected that Sparty, Boston College and Temple will play the Irish tough, those are games that Notre Dame has a clear talent advantage. New coaches or not, they should go down in the W column.
That brings us to Georgia in a game that is critical in many ways for Kelly and the program. A 3-1 start is certainly nothing to shake your head at, but 4-0 could change the dynamic of what the team can accomplish in 2017.
I already mentioned Kelly's record against those high profile programs in September and it hasn't been good. These games are fun to schedule when you win them. They aren't fun at all if you're losing them and Kelly has lost too many of them to for Notre Dame fans to feel confident they are going beat Georgia.
Regardless of the outcome of that game, things should go well in the other three. But should is the cousin of almost and we know almost is something that has happened far too often with Kelly at Notre Dame.
If you should becomes did, then this will end up being a September to remember for the Irish.
An early season loss might not completely derail national championship hopes, but it's definitely not the track anyone wants to be on. It can take awhile for things to get back on the correct path after that. It can often lead programs with high expectations in August to simply scrape by once they get to November.
It's not a coincidence that of the four times that Notre Dame has won 10 games or more since 2002, they went undefeated in September in three of those years. The other season they won 10, with Charlie Weis in '06, they went 4-1.
Bursting out of the blocks even allows teams that close with a whimper down the stretch, like the '02 and '15 teams, to achieve that often elusive double digit win goal.
Brian Kelly has had mixed results in the opening month of the season since arriving at Notre Dame. In his three seasons, at Cincinnati he went 12-1 during the first month of the season. That went a long way to him winning 10, 11, and 12 games in each of those years. He hasn't come close to that level of success at Notre Dame in consecutive years and his teams struggling out of the gate have a lot to do with that.
Overall (including the games that have kicked off in late August), he's 20-10 in his seven seasons in the team's opening month. His first season he went 1-3 and he put up the same record last season. Take those out and 18-4 in five years is not all that bad, but they do count all the Ws and Ls. They can't be stripped away from his record.
Before we get into this season, let's take a look back at the start of each year for Kelly at Notre Dame and how his team's fared under him.
2010
This was definitely not the start that Kelly envisioned when he took over the program. They went 1-3 in September before eventually bouncing back to finish 8-5.
The win came against an over-matched Purdue team, which was then followed by close losses to Michigan and Michigan State. It was the start of a trend of close losses in September games for Kelly. 7 of his 10 early season losses have been by one score or less.
The third loss came against a really good Stanford team in Jim Harbaugh's last season there.
2011
An 0-2 start pretty much killed the season before it began. Two more should-have-been wins against South Florida and Michigan were deflating.
They beat Michigan State and Pitt after, but the damage was already done.
2012
A dominating win over Navy in Ireland, a close victory against Purdue, a tough fought road win over Michigan State, and the defense carrying them over Michigan finally resulted in a 4-0 record for Kelly in September.
Everyone knows that team might have had the most flaws out of any recent undefeated regular season team in college football, but they had a belief in each other that propelled them to close wins early and it stayed with them throughout the year.
2013
This might be the strangest September in terms of results. The Irish went 3-2 with two losses against ranked teams (Michigan and Oklahoma) and two wins against unranked teams (Temple and Purdue).
That's more disappointing than anything else, but here comes the weird part: they also won a game against Michigan State, Sparty's only loss of that season.
Michigan State beat Michigan and Stanford (two teams Notre Dame lost to) and were the only team to beat Ohio State that season.
In a twisted way, it's one of Kelly's better wins on his resumé as the head coach at Notre Dame. On the opposite side of it, it shows how truly disappointing that season was for that to be the ceiling and Notre Dame to only finish at 9-4.
2014
With Everett Golson back from suspension, the Irish had their best ever start to a season under Kelly. They were 4-0 in the first month and won those games against Rice, Michigan, Purdue, and Syracuse by an average of 23.5 points per game.
We know how that season went downhill with a total collapse in November with injuries playing a part. The loss at Florida State and how they lost was also a major factor.
This isn't a September stat, but it is interesting to note that Kelly was 43-15 (.741 winning percentage) at Notre Dame before the Florida State game. He's been 16-16 since then.
2015
4-0 again and it ultimately led to 10 wins on the season. They whooped Texas, had an epic DeShone Kizer to Will Fuller led comeback against Virginia, dominated Georgia Tech, and put it on UMASS.
2016
Well, no one saw this coming in year seven for Kelly. Another 1-3 with close losses to Texas, Michigan State, and Duke. The only win came against Nevada.
There were a lot of reasons for the lack of success in '16, but the poor start was largely on the defense. The complete destruction by Texas of the Irish defense and the 3rd quarter against Michigan State where they might as well have been running against air stand out in particular.
The start to last season cost Brian VanGorder his job. In reality, it should have never got to that point.
That's how Kelly got to 20-10 in September.
Has the schedule been a big factor?
Yes and no. It would be ideal to take out one big match-up each year and switch it with a Group of 5 opponent, but Kelly has not won enough in those big early season match-ups.
Three losses against Michigan, two against Michigan State, one against Texas, one against Oklahoma, and one against Stanford. Those are eight reasons that back Mike's thought that they need to schedule easier earlier in the year. It would be fair to argue that on Kelly's behalf.
When looking at the overall record against those teams, Kelly is 2-3 vs Michigan, 3-2 vs MSU, 1-1 vs Texas, 1-1 vs Oklahoma, and 0-1 vs Stanford (2-5 overall vs the Cardinal). It's just as fair to argue that Kelly needs to be better than under .500 against those teams.
Even though the schedule was tough, particularly in '10 and '13, I think it's only a small factor in the inconsistency in September for Kelly at Notre Dame.
In '10 he lost to all three of Michigan, Michigan State, and Stanford. In '13 he lost to Michigan and Oklahoma. In '16 he lost to Texas and Michigan State. I do believe that it would be better to only have to play one "marquee" opponent every season, but if you're playing two, the Irish have to at least split in those games.
And no matter who else is on the schedule, you can't lose to USF and Duke. There is no excuse for that in any year.
What will we remember from this September?
We'll just have to wait and see, but Notre Dame appears to have caught a break with Michigan State trending down. This shouldn't be one of Mark Dantonio's better teams. While it's expected that Sparty, Boston College and Temple will play the Irish tough, those are games that Notre Dame has a clear talent advantage. New coaches or not, they should go down in the W column.
That brings us to Georgia in a game that is critical in many ways for Kelly and the program. A 3-1 start is certainly nothing to shake your head at, but 4-0 could change the dynamic of what the team can accomplish in 2017.
I already mentioned Kelly's record against those high profile programs in September and it hasn't been good. These games are fun to schedule when you win them. They aren't fun at all if you're losing them and Kelly has lost too many of them to for Notre Dame fans to feel confident they are going beat Georgia.
Regardless of the outcome of that game, things should go well in the other three. But should is the cousin of almost and we know almost is something that has happened far too often with Kelly at Notre Dame.
If you should becomes did, then this will end up being a September to remember for the Irish.
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