Scouting Report - Navy Defense
Navy football synonomous with the triple option. That’s the first and last thing that comes to mind when talking about Navy under Paul Johnson and then Ken Niumatalolo. It’s only been 15 years since Johnson took over the program, which set the foundation for what it would become under Niumatalolo. It really feels like it’s been closer to 50. Navy is the triple option and the triple option is Navy.
The defense is almost an afterthought compared to the offense. That might not be fair, but it’s reality. Navy is going to come out and play hard in their base 3-4 defense. They also are never going to have the kind of athletes to match up with most of their opposition.
That’s the case again this season where they are struggling to stop teams. The numbers are not pretty. Let’s run through them really quick:
- They give up over 30 points per game and over ⅓ of their defensive series result in at touchdown for the other team.
- They are 109th in 3rd down defense and 97th in red zone touchdown percentage.
- They don’t create many turnovers (10 on the year) and 100th in Havoc Rate.
- They struggle to get to the quarterback (111th in sacks per game)
- They give up a ton of big plays and are 125th in IsoPPP, a statistic that measures explosive plays.
- The run defense is bad (4.71 yards per carry, 95th). So is the pass defense (122nd in yards per attempt and 122nd in pass efficiency).
Overall, they are not very good.
- There is nothing to really point to that could make a case against that. Their best defense is hoping their offense can hold on to the ball for a long time and they don’t see the field very often. It’s harsh, but true. What’s the best way for Notre Dame to attack a defense that doesn’t do much well? Just about everywhere.
Exploit their lack of speed
I actually like Navy’s starting linebackers a fair bit. Micah Thomas is good football player. He is physical and will knock a ball carrier backward on contact. He’s the second leading tackler on the team and actually leads their team in interceptions with three. They aren’t the best group of linebackers the Irish have faced, but Thomas and DJ Palmore in particular will come up and smack people in the run game.
This group isn’t fast, though. They aren’t sideline to sideline players and Notre Dame can gash them with jet sweeps and runs to the perimeter. That’s not to say that they won’t be able to run the ball right at their front, but there will be chances to break big plays in the perimeter run game.
They really don’t have the kind of speed to not break in the secondary too. It doesn’t help that they will be missing their best player, safety Sean Williams, for the first half because of targeting call in the second half of the Southern Methodist game. They don’t have anyone else as good as he is and they should suffer without him playing.
On the outside it’s a similar story where they have struggled to cover all season. One player in particular should have a bullseye on him all game long.
Where’s Waldo?
This is something NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks describes when a team finds a player they want to attack. They look around for Waldo and then they keep coming after him. In the case of Navy, Waldo is senior cornerback Elijah Merchant.
#14 got torched by Temple. Burn marks on his jersey kind of torched. When they put him in man coverage and asked him to cover one on one, it was over. He couldn’t hold up and was beat for a couple of touchdowns and was again beat bad versus SMU. He also was called for a couple of pass interference penalties. When they replaced him in the Temple game, his backup was beat bad on an RPO as well.
I know there isn’t a lot of confidence in Brandon Wimbush’s accuracy after last week, but this is a game where he can gain back some confidence if he hits on some big plays. Whether it is KJ Stepherson, Chase Claypool, or Equanimeous St. Brown, all of them will have a chance to gain confidence going up against Merchant.
When Navy is playing press and showing blitz inside, it should almost be an automatic check to a deep ball in the direction of Merchant.
Won’t have to rely on the passing game
Yes, there will be plenty of chances for them to take advantage of Navy in the passing game. But they shouldn't get caught up in trying to use this as an opportunity for Wimbush to improve as a passer. At least not early in the game. They can go heavy with that route if they are up by a few scores late.
Prior to that, they should be able to have a lot of success running the football. They don’t have the athletes up front to make the kind of plays that Miami did against the Irish. I expect Notre Dame to get back to the kind of game where they are running the ball and taking advantage of tempo against the Midshipman. They aren’t a deep group and the offense is what protects them more than anything from wearing down.
I can see Chip Long going back to more uptempo in this game and that’s going to allow for some big runs from Wimbush, Josh Adams, and the rest of the Irish backs when they choose to go to play the Power game. More than a few runs should break big and that will be important because Notre Dame will need points on as many drives as possible in the first half to take contol of this game.