Numbers to Know vs LSU
10 feels so much better than 9.
That number matters more to both Notre Dame and LSU than any other in the Citrus Bowl. Both programs are 9-3 and they want that 10th win going into the off-season. Whoever finishes with that 10th win is going to feel like they salvaged their season. Whoever doesn’t, is going to have a bitter taste in their mouth heading into spring ball and the February signing day.
That 10th win could push either team to a top-10 finish in the final rankings as well. For the Irish, that would be the first finish inside the top-10 since 2012. So don’t get it twisted, this game means a lot despite it not being a Playoff game or New Year’s 6 bowl. The number 10 matters and so do these other numbers heading into this matchup.
189 and 142
That’s how many rushing yards LSU gave up to Auburn and Alabama respectively. Auburn is 22nd in rushing offense and Alabama is 8th, one spot behind the Irish. LSU’s defense has performed well against the other two offensive lines that were finalists for the Joe Moore Award. If they go 3 for 3, then it’s going to be tough for Notre Dame to get the win.
88
That’s how many yards Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald ran for against LSU in their 37-7 win. He’s the best runner LSU has faced at quarterback all year and he helped the Bulldogs run for 285 (5.9 yards per carry) overall. In order for the rest of the run game to open up, the Irish will need Brandon Wimbush to get loose.
5.4%
That’s the Havoc Rate for the LSU defensive backs, which ranked 3rd in the nation. The strength of their defense is the back end and especially at corner where they three players with double digit pass breakups. The defensive line is far less productive in Havoc Rate (76th). The linebackers are better (36th), but they won’t be at full strength in this game.
3
That’s how many starting linebackers in their 3-4 defense that will be out for this game. Leading tackler Devin White, one of the top inside linebackers in the nation will be available. Donnie Alexander, Corey Thompson, and Arden Key will not. Key is the biggest loss. He is the best pass rusher on the roster and someone who could have used a monster performance in this game to boost his NFL Draft stock.
23.2
Wide receiver DJ Chark averages that many yards per reception. He only has 35 catches on the season, but he’s made the most of those. Look for offensive coordinator Matt Canada to get Chark in some one on one opportunities against Notre Dame’s corners.
6th
That’s where LSU ranks in rushing offense according to S&P+, which is one spot below Notre Dame. There hasn’t been enough acknowledgement about how dangerous their rushing attack is. They are going to try and control the game with it just like Notre Dame will try and control the game with their running game as well. Derrius Guice didn’t have the season that Bryce Love did, but he’s arguably right behind Love as the most talented back that the Irish will have faced this season.
52
That’s how many 4 or 5 star recruits LSU has on their roster. Only USC and Georgia had more out of the opponents the Irish faced this season. Those games were obviously different results. LSU isn’t going to overwhelm Notre Dame with more talent on the field, but at their best, they are very good. The same goes for the Irish. If both teams bring their “A” games next Monday, it should be a very tight contest.