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Photo by Rick Kimball/ISD
Notre Dame Football

Finally Reaching the Red Zone Elite

February 27, 2018
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After eight long years of waiting, it finally happened. Notre Dame struggled to score touchdowns in the red zone for much of Brian Kelly’s coaching tenure. The offense settled for field goal attempts far too often.

It all changed last season as the Irish shot up to 8th in the nation in red zone touchdown percentage.

The Notre Dame offense wasn’t as good in 2017 (21st in yards per play, 24th in S&P+) as it was in 2015 with better quarterback play and an explosive passing game (6th in YPP, 11th in S&P+). Yet, those two offenses averaged the exact same amount of points per game (34.2). The biggest reason why was that last season’s offense was ranked 71 spots higher than the ‘15 version when it came to getting six points inside the 20 yard line.

What was it that made them so much more successful than any Kelly offense that preceded it? Certainly Chip Long deserves credit for part of it. Mostly for the the way he utilized his personnel with Brandon Wimbush being the best example of that.

Wimbush scored fourteen rushing touchdowns on the season. Twelve of those came within the red zone. Eleven were on runs from inside the 10 yard line. Josh Adams was the workhorse back, but he only ended up with three red zone touchdowns on the ground all season. The trio of Deon McIntosh, Dexter Williams, and Tony Jones Jr. pitched in to give the running backs a combined total of twelve. That matched what Wimbush put up all by himself.

Some of those were on designed runs or zone read plays, but Wimbush brought a different element to the table no matter what the call was. The criticism of him last season as a passer was more than fair, but the stats back up that he was clutch in the money area of the field.

Half of his twenty four rushes went for touchdowns. Some of them were improvised like this 3rd down and goal where he escaped against Temple.

via GIPHY

Him running was an option on this play against Georgia, but not the first option. But he is that rare quarterback that's fast enough to get the edge on defense like Georgia’s. He saw an opening and he was able to take advantage of it.

via GIPHY

Even though his accuracy issues were still evident, he was still able to produce in terms of touchdowns. He completed only 12 of 29 passes in the red zone (41.5%), but eight of his completions went for touchdowns. He also threw zero interceptions.

He didn’t single-handedly make the offense elite in the red zone, but no one had a greater impact than him in that area of the field. We love to talk about Notre Dame being able to find more difference-makers on offense. The fact is that, at least within the red zone, they found one in Wimbush. 

Can they continue to be elite?

Everyone has waited so long for that kind of productivity when it matters most. Now the question is whether it can be sustained or not. Right now there isn’t much clarity there because Wimbush has to go out and win the quarterback job again this spring and summer.

If he does, then he will be a huge weapon in the red zone again this upcoming season. If he doesn’t, then it’s lot more unclear.

Ian Book or Avery Davis may prove to be better all-around quarterbacks than Wimbush. It’s yet to be seen if they can have the kind of impact Wimbush had when it comes to getting into the end zone even if they are more efficient in other areas of the field. Neither of them are 225 pounds or as fast as Wimbush. It’s pretty much impossible to expect them to do exactly what Wimbush did as a runner.

Let’s say Wimbush does win the job, though. It still won’t be easy for the Irish to be a top-10 red zone offense again. They may not have to be if they are better in other ways. But the goal would be for them to be somewhere close to as good as they were last season. 

Other programs have had sustained success in the red zone. Oklahoma has ranked no lower than 26th in red zone touchdown percentage the last four seasons. Ohio State has ranked as high as 1st in the category (2013) and no lower than 44th in the last five years. Clemson finished 14th in this statistic in back to back seasons, one year with Deshaun Watson and one year without him. So it’s definitely possible for Notre Dame to remain really good even if they aren’t quite as strong as the year before.

Under Long, they are definitely running the right kind of offense to be successful in the red zone too. Fourteen of the top-20 teams in this category run spread schemes with dual-threat quarterbacks. Three of the others are triple option offenses. Most of those teams all don't have 225 pound quarterbacks that can run like Wimbush either.

If Wimbush isn’t the QB1, then it will get a little bit more interesting. He was such a big part of why they improved so much in the red zone in ‘17. If him running is no longer a primary option for htme, then they'll have to find other solutions to be close to as good this fall. 

 
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