Comparing Kelly
I don’t mean to purposely steal from a cheesy SEC ad, but it makes sense in this case.
Beating ranked teams: it just means more.
The spotlight is on during those games. They are the matchups we remember not just days or weeks or months, but sometimes years later. People don’t tell tales of the time Notre Dame beat a bad Purdue team at home. They talk about that time Manti Te’o stuffed Stanford at the goal line in 2012 or when the Irish took down Bobby Bowden and Florida State in 1993.
Sometimes the rankings can feel abitrary, but there is no denying that the games involving ranked opponents feel bigger.
Every win and every loss means something. They all count. The wins and losses don’t equal to extra points for the program that wins them. But they probably should.
Those losses to Clemson and Stanford in 2015? They sting a bit more than the others. Those wins against USC and NC State last October? They are that much sweeter. For Brian Kelly, it seems like he has had a lot more of those stinging losses than those triumphant wins. So much so that I think several Notre Dame fans would be surprised to find out he is 14-17 in games versus ranked opponents since 2010.
Being below .500 in those situations is not good. It certainly doesn’t come close to the level of winning against ranked opponents that the top coaches in college football have done in recent years. That’s why no one would dare to compare Kelly to Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, or Dabo Swinney when it comes to beating top teams.
But how does it compare to the next tier of coaches? There are those that believe Kelly is firmly entrenched in that next group while others think he is far below them. When it comes to wins and losses against ranked opponents, how does he stack up to the coaches who many national columnists and analysts feel are a notch above Kelly?
For the purposes of this exercise I only included Power 5 coaches with at least five years of experience in a major conference (so no Chris Petersen or Chip Kelly).
Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher
Previously at Florida State from 2010-2017, Fisher is seen as one of the next best coaches after the top three because of him winning a championship in 2013 and him averaging 10 wins a season during that time.
His 18-13 record against ranked opponents is good, but not great. It also looks much worse when he didn’t have Jameis Winston as a quarterback. Without Winston his teams are 9-12 in those games. A&M fans should be aware of that if they don’t have elite quarterback play.
Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh
Some of the shine came off of Harbaugh when his team struggled last season. Him being 1-5 against Michigan State and Ohio State hasn’t helped either.
For most, though, Harbaugh is still seen as one of the best coaches in college football. His record in these kind of games doesn’t back up that assertion. He is 5-7 versus ranked teams at Michigan (2015-2017) and was 6-7 while at Stanford (2007-2010). 11-14 in the games that matter more isn’t the kind of thing that screams 9 million a year for a coach.
He’s viewed in a different stratusphere than Kelly, but it’s not clear he should be based on this. It makes the season opener even more important for the Harbaugh believers.
Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio
Dantonio still gets respect as an elite coach (on the field) after a bounce back season in 2017. He’s been at Michigan State for eleven years and has been much better in his last seven than his first four. After stating 3-11, Dantonio is now 21-25 versus ranked opponents since he’s coached the Spartans.
Penn State’s James Franklin
His star is on the rise and Penn State has been recruiting at a much higher level under him than they have in a very long time. The fact that he turned Vanderbilt from an SEC bottom-dweller to a respectable program says a lot as well. Throw that on top of back to back strong years in Happy Valley and it’s easy to see why many have jumped on the Franklin bandwagon.
It should be noted that in seven combined years at Vandy and PSU he is a dismal 5-18 against ranked opponents (4-10 at Penn State). The reality of that record should make people hold off on crowning him with the elite of the elite coaches. Let’s see how he handles these big games without Joe Moorhead as his offensive coordinator as well.
Wisconsin’s Paul Chryst
Chryst was at Pitt for a three year run before coming back to Wisconsin where he was the offensive coordinator. During that time he almost knocked off Notre Dame in 2012 and he did beat them in 2013. He’s also on a nice little run back at Wisconsin where his team finished 13-1 last season.
He’s 11-11 versus ranked teams (8-6 at Wisconsin). If he wins games on the road against (likely ranked) Michigan and (likely ranked) Penn State this fall, Chryst is going to be seen much differently than he is today.
TCU’s Garry Patterson
He rightly receives a ton of credit for the program he has built at TCU, but does he get a bit too much credit? The Horned Frogs are 13-15 against ranked opponents since they joined the Big 12 in 2012.
Oklahoma States Mike Gundy
More than just famous for his “I’m a man!” speech and mullet, every off season Gundy’s name is thrown out there for bigger jobs because of the success he has had in Stillwater. His teams have won 10 games or more in six of the last eight seasons.
But some of that is his team’s feasting on the down teams in the Big 12 and non-conference cupcakes. He’s been at Oklahoma State since 2005 and his record against ranked opponents is 23-32.
Stanford’s David Shaw
You’ve probably noticed by now that most of these coaches have similar records to Kelly in these types of games. Shaw is a definite exception to that, which should not be a shock to anyone who has seen Shaw win five of his seven games against Notre Dame since taking over Stanford in 2011.
During his seven year run on The Farm, Shaw is 23-14 against ranked opponents. He might have walked into a better situation than some of these other coaches, but he was only 2-2 with Andrew Luck in year one. 21-12 since then is not too shabby.
It’s not just Notre Dame that his teams have had an edge over. It’s the entire Pac-12 and Shaw has finished strong against tough opponents too. His teams are 13-5 in November/December against ranked foes.
As much as Irish fans might not like him, they have to respect what Shaw has accomplished. By comparison, Kelly is 1-8 in November/December against ranked teams.
I think it’s fair to compare what all of these coaches have done in these situations and determine that the reputation for the majority of them, outside of Shaw and Fisher, shouldn’t be seen that much differently than Kelly.
The issue with Kelly is that late season record in these games and the fact that when he has lost, he has frequently lost ugly. 10 of his 17 losses were by 11 points or more. That has to change and Kelly needs to close the gap between himself and Shaw. If he does, starting with a win on September 29th, then he’ll be seen in a different light than he is now.