Scouting Report | USC
Notre Dame is coming off of a disappointing loss to Louisville, their seventh game without a bye week and their third against an undefeated ranked opponent. It doesn’t get any easier this week for the Irish with their rivals USC coming to town.
The tl;dr version of this is that USC has a great offense and a bad defense. Everyone with eyes can tell you that. That’s been their M.O. under Lincoln Riley, who is now 17-3 as the Trojans head coach.
They are 6-0 to start this season, but have accomplished that by beating five programs ranked 79th or lower in F+ (the combined FEI and SP+ rankings). The only team who has been ranked higher than that is Arizona (47th) and they came awfully close to knocking off SC in double overtime.
USC has had to sweat the last two weeks and they appear to be beat up after their Pac-12 After Dark match up. Notre Dame fans who are wondering why the Irish are favored in this game are only concentrating on the issues the Irish have and not the ones USC currently has. That’s what makes this game an unpredictable one to project on both sides, but what we do know is that Riley’s team can score points on anyone and are an upper tier team in terms of raw talent.
They are eighth in 247Sports’ college team talent rankings and are 11th in F+.
Offense
On the list of best play-callers in the last decade, Riley is at the top. The Mike Leach disciple has taken the Air Raid to a different level at both Oklahoma and USC. Top-five offenses have become the norm for him.
No one uses the entire field better, puts stress on defenders more often, and knows how to get the ball to his playmakers in space more consistently than Riley. He does all of that and also manages to run the football well, often because of depleted numbers inside left to defend it.
In his 20 games at USC, they’ve scored 30 or more points in 18 of them. At Oklahoma they scored 30 or more in 84.4% of his games as the offensive coordinator or head coach.
They are currently 2nd in OF+, 5th in points per drive, and 2nd in yards per play. It will be the toughest challenge yet for Notre Dame’s defense.
Expected Strengths
They are as dangerous as any program with the skill talent after the catch.
There are multiple players capable of breaking a big play on any given touch and the Irish secondary will have to continue to play extremely disciplined and tackle better than they have.
They are 1st in points per Eckel, which means they average the most points per scoring opportunity than any other offense in the country. Part of the reason why is that they are 2nd in explosive plays from scrimmage
They are 3rd in EPA (expected points added) per rush, 4th in EPA per drop back, and 3rd in early down EPA. With Riley calling the plays, the reigning Heisman winner at quarterback, and the deepest group of skill talent in the country, they are extremely tough to stop for four quarters.
Potential Weaknesses
Arizona gave them trouble with multiple looks and was beating them up front. They got pressure with a three man rush at times and USC’s offensive line, which features three new starters via the transfer portal, has not been close to as good as it was last season.
They lack depth there as well and don’t appear to be fully healthy.
USC is having their own issues on 3rd down. They have converted 9 of 28 (32.1%) since they entered conference play and that was against the 62nd, 80th, and 105th ranked defense in DF+.
Personnel notes
QB Caleb Williams
- 6-1 215
- Oklahoma transfer
- Brilliant at escaping the rush and improv plays
- great arm talent
- a threat to run
- arm angles and quick release are special
- Heisman winner, best QB in the country
- Houdini vs ND last season, pressured on 44.4% of drop backs
- 74 yards on improv plays vs ND 1 TD
- 77.5% adjusted completions
- Has not been as good under pressure this season, was brilliant in ‘22
- Destroying defenses when blitzed, 11.9 YPA, 12 TDs
- Two fumbles vs Arizona
QB Miller Moss
- 6-2 200
- Rushed for two touchdowns this season
- Has looked good in mop up time, 80.6% adjusted completions
RB Marshawn Lloyd
- 5-9 215
- South Carolina transfer, averaged 5.0 YPC in ‘22
- Can make you miss and great balance after contact
- Can create something out of nothing
- 13 runs of 15+ yards
- 7.9 YPC
- 31 missed tackles forced, second in PFF’s elusive rating
RB Austin Jones
- 5-10 200
- Stanford transfer
- 6.2 YPC, six carries or less in every game
- RB2 for them last season
-154 vs ND last season
- Runs hard, not a home run threat
RB Quinten Joyner
- 5-11 205
- True freshman, sub 11 100m in HS
- 8.1 YPC
- All carries came against SJSU, Nevada, and Stanford
WR Tahj Washington
- 5-10 175
- Memphis transfer, 5th year player
- 21.1mph vs Colorado
- 6 receptions of 20+
- 21.7 per reception
- 2 receptions over 70 yards
- 4 receptions of over 40 this season
- 3 100 yards games in ‘22
- 12.4 YAC per catch
- With Branch out, 8 catches for 117 vs Colorado
WR Kyron Hudson
- 6-1 205
- Mostly plays outside, but was a bigger option in the slot vs Colorado
WR Brendan Rice
- 6-3 215
- Son of Jerry Rice, Colorado transfer
- top speed of 23mph on GPS, 38-inch vert
- 20.7 per reception, seven touchdowns
- 81 yard punt return TD when he was at Colorado
- 16 targets in the last two games
WR Mario Williams
- 5-9 175
- Oklahoma transfer
- Targets have gone down in recent weeks
- Has had some issues with drops
- Took more shots down the field with him last season
- Make you miss ability
WR Zachariah Branch
- 5-10 175
- Nevada champ in 100m, 200m, and long jump
- 10.33 100m in HS
- Most targets have come short, electric after the catch
- 10.1 YAC per reception
- Missed the Colorado and Arizona games
WR Dorian Singer
- 6-0 180
- 2nd team All Pac-12, 1,105 yards last season
- Projected Jordan Addison replacement, was getting huge hype out of spring
- Three targets per game, averaged 8 per game at Arizona
- Was very good after the catch at Arizona, hasn’t happened yet at SC
WR Michael Jackson Jr.
- 6-0 200
- 53 yard rush last season on a jet sweep
- 4 TDs last season
TE Lake McCree
- 6-5 230
- 10 receptions last season, 11 in six games
- More of a receiving threat with a little juice after the catch
- A poor run blocker
TE Jude Wolfe
- 6-5 240
- Not a threat in the passing game
- Above average run blocker
WR Duce Robinson
- 6-6 225
- 21.3mph in week 1
- Big time baseball player
- 23.3 per reception
- A match up problem, caught 3 of 5 contested targets
- Not involved the last 2 games
LT Jonah Monheim
- 6-5 295
- Started at multiple positions, 21 starts before the season
- 11 penalties in 2022
- Two this season
- Good mobility, developed into a very good player in pass pro
- 10th in Power 5 PFF pass blocking grade for tackles
RT Michael Tarquin
- 6-5 300
- Florida transfer, 5th year player
- Started 8 games at UF last season
- Solid in pass pro the last two seasons, but struggle town at SC
- Benched vs Arizona after giving up a sack and pressure on consecutive plays
RT Mason Murphy
-6-5 310
- 5 starts last season
- Next man in at tackle
- Gave up two sacks and had a very tough time against Utah last season
- Replaced Tarquin at RT vs Arizona
LG Emmaneul Pregnon
- 6-5 315
- Wyoming transfer
- Considered one of the top guards in the Mountain West last season
- Massive frame, has gotten better as the season progresses
- Took over the left guard spot the last three games
RG Jarrett Kingston
- 6-4 305
- Wazzu transfer, 6th year player
- 26 starts at Wazzu, 10 at LT
- Good run blocker
- First season starting at RG in his career
C Justin Dedich
- 6-2 295
- 6th year player
- Not big, not long. Just solid across the board
- Have seen him overwhelmed by blitzers on occasion
- Did not look 100% at the end of the Arizona game
Key for Notre Dame
Mix it up, tackle well
Being predictable against Riley and Williams leads to bad things for defenses. Notre Dame needs to mix it up as much as possible with what they are showing in coverage and with what they do with pressures.
Tackling well goes without saying in this game and that has easily been the weakest part of Notre Dame’s defense this season. They have been inconsistent and that won’t do against this offense. They couldn’t get Williams on the ground last season and not allowing him to buy a ton of extra time to create outside of the framework of the play will be critically important.
Defense
At one time, Alex Grinch was seen as a rising star as a coordinator. Having the 27th ranked defense in DF+ at Washington State helped him move on to Ohio State and then Oklahoma.
He improved their defense from awful to average (55th in DF+ in both of his full seasons there), but it has been bad at USC.
They finished 101st in DF+ in 2022 and although they have improved to 69th through six games this fall, it’s a bit misleading because they play their toughest opponents in the back half of the season and I believe where FEI has them ranked (86th) more closely reflects how they’ve played.
They are 50th in points per drive and that was much higher before giving up 82 points in their last two games. That’s making them look closer to the unit that gave up 93 points in their final two games last season and made Drew Pyne (12.2 yards per attempt!) look like Drew Bledsoe.
They had a lot of turnover luck last season and haven’t been as fortunate so far. They had 29 total takeaways in ‘22, but have only eight through six games.
Expected Strengths
Grinch stems and stunts his defensive line a lot and that helps them make plays in the backfield. The defense is averaging 3.67 sacks per game and 19 of their 22 sacks have come from the front four.
They have a 21.0% havoc rate and they count on the “boom” from their defenders in key moments.
Potential Weaknesses
They give up too many big plays and those big plays lead to points. They are 114th in points per Eckel, have allowed 11 rushes of 20+ yards (112th) and are 128th in explosive passes against (20 receptions of 20+).
Overall they are 130th in explosive plays against. So much of that has to do with poor tackling. They are 111th in PFF’s tackling grades and it’s several players who have missed multiple tackles in multiple games.
Arizona State was in the 96th percentile in EPA per rush against them and USC gave up 10 explosive plays. Colorado was in the 82nd percentile in both EPA per run and pass and they had 8 explosive plays. Arizona had double digit explosive plays against them as well.
Adding to all of this is the fact they are dealing with injuries at cornerback. They were down to their fourth and fifth corner at the end of the Arizona game and it’s uncertain about the availability of those injured players this week (USC doesn’t disclose any injury information).
Notre Dame’s offense desperately needs a bounce back game this week and this is the kind of match up that sets up well for them.
Personnel notes
Edge Jamil Muhammad
- 6-1 250
- 13 havoc plays, 2 forced fumbles
- 21 pressures, 18.6% win rate vs true pass sets
- Can be run at, much better vs pass
- 2 sacks vs Arizona
Edge Anthony Lucas
- 6-5 265
- 3.0 TFLs
- Has flashed big time as a pass rusher in limited opportunities
- Playing time increasing, 5 pressures vs Colorado
Edge Solomon Byrd
- 6-3 250
- Wyoming transfer
- 12 havoc plays, 3 forced fumbles
- Leads the team with 23 pressures
- 20.8% win rate vs true pass sets
Edge Romello Height
- 6-3 230
- Auburn transfer, season ending shoulder surgery early last season
- 3 sacks this season
DT Jack Sullivan
- 6-5 275
- Purdue transfer, 6th year player
- Starter at Purdue rotation player who hasn’t flashed at SC
- Just a guy
DT Stanley Ta’ufo’ou
- 6-2 275
- Returning starter
- Can get swallowed up inside
DT Tyrone Taleni
- 6-2 275
- K-State transfer
- Missed the first three games, returning starter
- 3-tech, NFL prospect
- Their best iDL vs the run
NT Bear Alexander
- 6-3 300
- Georgia transfer
- 4.5 havoc plays, batted down two passes
- 2 TFLs vs TCU in natty last season
- Powerful bull rusher
- Inconsistent motor, takes plays off
- A boom or bust player
NT Kyon Barrs
- 6-2 290
- Arizona transfer
- Down 20 pounds from last season
- 8 TFLs, 2nd team All Pac-12 in 2021
NT De’jon Benton
- 6-1 270
- 2.5 TFLs
- Most snaps of the season against Colorado
LB Tackett Curtis
- 6-2 225
- True freshman
- Downhill, big hitter
- 2 sacks vs ASU
- Starting, but inexperience shows
- Played safety in high school
- Got trucked by Zona RB, didn’t play much late in the game
LB Eric Gentry
- 6-6 215
- ASU transfer
- 2 TFLs
- 9 starts in ‘22, 10 havoc plays
- Better in theory than on film, not overly instinctual
Mike LB Mason Cobb
- 6-0 235
- Oklahoma St transfer
- 2nd team All-Big 12, 13 TFLs last season
- Great blitzer
- Missed the Nevada and Stanford games
- Can play out of control, missed tackles a problem
- 7 missed tackles in three games
Mike LB Shane Lee
- 6-0 240
- Alabama transfer
- tight hipped, not great in coverage
- tackle to tackle player
- Starting in ‘22, 2nd on the team in tackles
- Returning captain
- Had not played since the Stanford game, split with Gentry vs Arizona
Nickel Jaylin Smith
- 5-11 180
- Leads the team in tackles
- 4.5 havoc plays
- A good run defender, but can miss when being overaggressive
Nickel/CB Christian Roland-Wallace
- 6-0 200
- Arizona transfer
- 3 havoc plays
- pick against Colorado
- Their best CB, did not finish the Arizona game due to injury
S Calen Bullock
- 6-3 195
- Long and fluid
- Great range, outstanding ball production
- 5 INTs in ‘22
- 4 PBUs, 1 pick in ‘23
- Struggled to tackle vs Utah’s big backs last season
- One of the top safeties in the country in coverage
- has missed more tackles this season
S Max Williams
- 5-9 185
- Finds the football, 11 havoc plays in ‘22
- 5 so far in ‘23
- Looked lost against ASU at times
- 6 missed tackles in his last two games
S Bryson Shaw
- 6-0 190 -
Ohio State transfer
- Starter at OSU in 2021 who lost his job
- Limited player who has been exposed at both programs in coverage
- Picked on by Colorado, 11 receptions 124 and three touchdowns
- 3 catches on 3 targets for 50 yards and one touchdown vs Arizona
CB Ceyair Wright
- 6-0 180
- Only 3 havoc plays all of last season, 4 this year
- Returning starter
- Has been jumped on the depth chart, had a bad game against ASU
- Forced to step in after injuries vs Arizona
CB Domani Jackson
- 6-1 190
- Former 5-star recruit, elite speed
- Ran a 10.25 100m in HS
- 3 PBUs
- Coming off major knee injury
- Exciting athlete, not sure he’s an elite ball player
- Horrible tackle attempt on a big play against Colorado
CB Jacobe Covington
- 6-2 200
- Washington transfer
- 3 starts last season
- Beat on a fade for 44 vs Colorado
- Did not finish the game vs Arizona due to injury, had an INT before that
CB Prophet Brown
- 5-11 190
- Only 57 snaps this season
- Had to step in and play after injuries vs Arizona
- Gave up a TD on a back shoulder play in OT
Key for Notre Dame
Just execute, baby
Does Notre Dame have to find more success with play-action and scheming up plays? Of course they do. The big thing is they just need to execute better because this USC defense is one that makes a ton of physical and mental mistakes.
Notre Dame’s offense can’t beat themselves. They need to execute better and let USC make the mistakes they always end up making.
Special Teams
K Denis Lynch is a problem…for them. He’s 3 of 5 and has two misses inside of 40 yards. He missed five inside of 40 last season. A bad snap led to a missed 24 yarder that would have won them the game against Arizona.
Eddie Czaplicki is solid as the punter. He averages 44.5 yards per punt this season.
Zacharia Branch is a problem for Notre Dame. He’s already taken a kick and a punt back to the house this season, but missed the last two games due to injury. He did dress for practice this week so we can assume he’ll be available and they need to never kick to him. It’s as simple as that.
He’s averaged 28.5 yards per kickoff and 26.3 yards on six punt returns. There may not be a more dynamic returner in the country.
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