Scouting Report | Pitt
Pitt was set up to take a step back this season.
After winning 20 games in the previous two seasons, Pat Narduzzi’s program had a ton of skill talent to replace on offense and they lost some studs in the front seven on defense that helped them become one of the top defenses in the ACC. Getting to double digit wins felt like a tough task in 2023.
Currently 2-5, getting to a bowl game seems unlikely. There is no way Narduzzi saw that as a possibility.
Just about everything has gone wrong for them that they needed to go right. The offensive line was supposed to be a strength, but they got hit hard by injuries. Phil Jurkovec was supposed to be a great story with him returning to his hometown for his final college season. It took less than three games for fans to turn on him and demand he be benched.
They made the switch at quarterback and then earned their only FBS win. It came against Louisville, which was a surprising result for a lot of reasons.
The defense carried them that day with multiple 4th down stops and a pick-six. They also benefited greatly from running back Jawhar Jordan leaving that game early with a hamstring injury. It looked like things were coming up Milhouse when they were set to face a Wake Forest team who had lost three in a row and were starting their 3rd string quarterback.
They lost that game when it looked like they had won the game multiple times in the final few minutes.
Pitt and Notre Dame have played 13 times since 2002. 10 of those games have been decided by one score, so Irish fans will be expecting a tough game.
That could happen. It could also get very ugly if the game gets away from Pitt early on.
Offense
Frank Cignetti Jr. is in his second season as offensive coordinator at Pitt. He was in the NFL for seven years before becoming the OC at Boston College, where he worked with Phil Jurkovec in 2020 and 2021.
Similar to what NC State was hoping for with Robert Anae and Brennan Armstrong, Narduzzi thought a reunion between OC and QB would end up being a great thing for Pitt.
Welp, so much for that. Pitt made a change at quarterback after not scoring more than 24 points and losing all of their FBS games.
They were 76th in OF+ (combined FEI and SP+ rankings) heading into the Wake Forest game. (Note: new F+ rankings have been released and they are now 87th) In his two years at BC and one year at Pitt, Cignetti Jr. had his offenses finish 59th, 86th, and 58th in OF+. In the year before Narduzz hired Cignetti Jr., Pitt’s offense finished 22nd with Kenny Pickett and Jordan Addison.
(“Hand in your gun and badge Cignetti, you’re off the case!”)
They are 100th in yards per play, 113th in points per drive, 121st in EPA per play, and 99th in success rate.
In their first six games, their quarterbacks had an average depth of target of 12.2 yards and so much of that had to do with taking plenty of deep shots down the field. That’s a lot of what Cignetti did at BC and now at Pitt.
Against Wake they took a lot more of those free access throws and worked on getting the ball out quicker, likely because they are trying to protect their struggling offensive line, but they still took shots down the field eight times.
They did get a couple of starters back on the offensive line for that game and had their first 100-yard rusher of the season, but still only managed to score 17 points.
Notre Dame has the best defense they have faced this season.
Expected Strengths
Well…uh…you see…
Strengths is a difficult word to use in regards to their offense.
They have been good at getting six when they get to the red zone. They are tied for 16th in red zone touchdown percentage.
They do have some speed at the wide receiver position that can threaten teams vertically, which is one of the reasons why they take those deep shots.
Potential Weaknesses
They get six often in the red zone, but not don’t get into the red zone enough.
They are 128th in red zone opportunities and went into the game against Wake Forest 101st in Eckel rate (scoring opportunities/explosive play touchdowns).
They scored 38 points against Louisville, but averaged only 4.8 YPP and have zero games against Power 5 opponents where they have averaged over 6.0 YPP.
They’re 91st in EPA (expected points added) per drop back. They are 123rd in passing success rate and 96th in pass efficiency.
The running game has been putrid, primarily because of the offensive line. They are 113th in yards per carry and 127th in run block grade. They don’t have tight ends who are great blockers either.
They are 90th in 3rd down conversion percentage. There’s some improvement there with the change at quarterback to Penn State transfer Christian Veilleux, but being shaky up front and losing their left tackle for the season has hurt them a lot.
The O-line is going to have a difficult time against Notre Dame’s defensive line. They and the tight ends had six penalties against Wake Forest.
Personnel notes
QB Christian Veilleux
- 6-4 220
- Penn St transfer
- 4.7 YPA and 2 picks vs UNC
- 7.7 YPA, 2 TDs in first start vs Louisville, but under 50% completions
- Only pressured six times vs Louisville
- Connected on 3 deep balls for 2 TDs, plus arm talent
- Horrendous under pressure, 6 of 21 2 INTs
- 50% 6.2 YPA vs blitz
- Not a dual-threat, but a decent athlete who can move the chains
- slid early short of the sticks when he could have won the game vs WF
- Best game vs WF, but only 6.7 YPA
- Not afraid to fit the ball into tight windows
QB Phil Jurkovec
- 6-5 235
- Boston College and Notre Dame transfer
- Benched after horrid start
- Issues with accuracy, sticks on one read
- Good deep ball thrower
- Poor pocket awareness
- Does a terrible job handling the blitz
RB Rodney Hammond Jr.
- 5-9 195
- Sun Bowl MVP last season, two TDs
- Runs hard, can be a tackle breaker
- Not a home run threat, long of 23 this season
RB Daniel Carter
- 5-10 230
- Got most of his run against Wofford
- Had a short yardage TD vs UNC
RB C’Bo Flemister
- 5-11 205
- Notre Dame transfer
- 6th year player
- Screen pass for 61 yards TD vs VT
- Runs tough, good balance after contact
- 2 TDs vs Louisville
- Averaging less than 4.0 YPC
- Was RB1 vs WF, 23 for 105
WR Konata Mumpfield
- 6-1 185
- 122 catches the last two seasons
- 2nd in targets
- 2 for 7 on contested catches in ‘23, 16 of 32 before ‘23
- Not a burner, but good route runner
- Slot fade to clinch the Louisville game
WR Daejon Reynolds
- 6-2 210
- Florida transfer
- Only caught 12 passes at UF
- 11 catches on 25 targets
WR Bub Means
- 6-2 215
- Tennessee and Louisiana Tech transfer
- SR Bowl watch list
- 27 for 401 last year
- 4.36 40, 39-inch vert
- 75 yard tuddy vs VT
- 46 yard TD vs Louisville on a post route off of play-action
- 2 for 9 on contested catches
- 41.7% of his targets are deep, only 4 of 20 on them
- ⅓ of his targets on the season vs WF, the guy they want to be WR1?
WR Kenny Johnson
- 6-1 195
- Freshman
- 100 yard KR TD
- 21.1mph on that return
- Only 10 targets on the season before WF, 7 in that game
- 34-yard TD vs Louisville on a deep shot
- 47.1% targets have been deep shots
TE Gavin Bartholomew
- 6-5 250
- Big play threat, 6 receptions of 20+
- 60-yard TD vs Cincinnati
- Jumbo WR, not a good blocker
- A difficult match up, YAC threat
TE Karter Johnson
- 6-2 255
- 3 for 34 this season
- Primarily blocking TE, but below average
RT Ryan Baer
- 6-7 330
- 6 penalties this season
- Has given up multiple pressures vs every FBS opponent
- Only played 5 snaps before this season
LT Branson Taylor
- 6-5 330
-Started at RT, move to LT after an injury
- Has not done well since moving
LG Blake Zubovic
- 6-4 330
- Did not play vs Louisville due to injury
- Was their best iOL until UNC, gave up 4 pressures + a sack
- Returned to lineup vs WF
RG BJ Williams
- 6-3 315
- True freshman
- First action vs Cincinnati, gave up 6 pressures
- Stepped in vs Louisville, 27 snaps vs WF before being benched
RG Jason Collier Jr.
- 6-6 330
- Started at RG, moved to LG vs Louisville
- First year as a starter, overwhelmed in pass pro
- Missed assignments
C/G Jake Kradel
- 6-3 305
- Returning starter, only played 3 games due to injury
- Below average player last season who struggles in pass pro
- Tough time vs Cincinnati DTs
- Returned vs WF, 50 snaps at RG
- Struggled to deal with lateral movement vs WF
C Terrence Moore
- 6-5 305
- Less than 50 snaps before this season
- Stepped in for Kradel and played well
Key for Notre Dame
Avoid the explosives
Pitt’s offense has been bad. They were a bit better with a new quarterback, but still bad.
Here’s there EPA without explosive plays vs FBS teams:
Cincinnati: -39.55
WVU: -28.35
UNC: -16.32
VT: -19.82
Louisville: -15.92
Wake: -22.86
Notre Dame is one of the best defenses in the country at preventing explosive passing plays of 20+ yards (tied for 13th) giving up only 2.13 per game. If that continues against Pitt, they are going to struggle to put up points.
Defense
Narduzzi is known for defense and though it took him a little bit to get it right after leaving Michigan State, they have been consistently good on that side of the ball. This is the fifth straight season they have a top-40 defense and they are able to find the right talent who fit exactly the way they want to play.
They were 32nd in DF+ prior to the Wake Forest game (note: updated to 38th) and 25th in YPP, but are 78th in points per drive because they’ve had to carry the weight of the team all season.
There is a bit of uncertainty with the status of some linebackers who didn’t travel to Wake Forest, but they’ve been relatively healthy on this side of the ball and have played pretty well.
The identity hasn’t changed all that much from when he was at Michigan State for so many seasons. Notre Dame assistant Max Bullough excelled while playing for Narduzzi in East Lansing and his old DC still loves early down blitzes, a physical secondary, and safeties playing downhill.
Add in a well-coached defensive line and it’s good defense that isn’t loaded with game wreckers, but plays well within the scheme.
Expected Strengths
They are 21st in yards per carry against. Cincinnati is the only team who has had success running on them and it was more about them having a few explosives than any sustained success.
They win with numbers and can get caught on occasion in the wrong call, but they disrupt more than make mistakes.
They aren’t as deep on the defensive line with pass rushers, but are 17th in sack percentage. Two edge guys, Hayes and Okunlola, are going to eventually play on Sundays and the second and third level defenders just know how to time up and fit blitzes well.
The last four games they have started to make a lot more plays. They have a 20.6% Havoc rate in those match ups and many individuals who have been given bigger roles this season are getting better and better.
Potential Weaknesses
They are 97th in yards per attempt allowed and 98th in pass efficiency defense. Though they return a lot of experience at cornerback and those players made a lot of plays last season, they aren’t playing as well in 2023.
I don’t know if it’s as simple as saying they got worse. It’s more of a combination of what the scheme asks them to do in terms of being aggressive and having the pass rush not be as good. Pitt is 82nd in PFF’s pass rush grade in 2023 after being 22nd in 2022.
They have had a tough time defending the perimeter in many weeks. They are 117th in PFF’s tackling grade and the inexperience at linebacker has hurt them here, but even experienced players have struggled.
They are 118th in red zone touchdown percentage. I guess it makes sense since they are not a bend, but don’t break defense. They try to attack and can get overly aggressive. That can come back to bite them when they don’t hit home with some pressure packages.
Personnel notes
Edge Dayon Hayes
- 6-3 265
- One of the better edge rushers in the ACC
- 26.7% pass rush win % vs true pass sets
- 29 pressures, t-4th in ACC
- Wins with twitch, big short yardage stop vs Louisville
- Inconsistent vs the run, can get bullied at times
- speed to power
- NFL prospect
Edge Bam Brima
- 6-5 270
- 2 sacks vs VT
- Long and strong at POA
Edge Nate Temple
- 6-4 250
- Deent motor, but average back up
Edge Samuel Okunlola
- 6-4 245
- Played most snaps of his career vs Louisville
- 3 pressures and a sack
- 3 total sacks on the season
- Breaking out as a pass rusher, NFL traits
DT Devin Danielson
- 6-2 290
- 6th year player
- Career back up
DT David Green
- 6-1 285
- 5 sacks in 2022
- 5th year player
- Just a guy
DT Deandre Jules
- 6-3 310
- Stood out to me as their best interior run defender
- Disruptive with above average lateral quickness, jumped out on film vs UNC
DT Tyler Bentley
- 6-2 300
- Two down nose guard
- 5th year player
LB Solomon Deshields
- 6-3 225
- Not great in coverage
- Good blitzer, 6.5 TFLs
- Injured early vs WF, looked like a concussion
- Status uncertain for ND
LB Jordan Bass
- 6-4 215
- True freshman
- First extensive action vs WF, 52 snaps
- Stepped in when Deshields went down
LB Bangally Kamara
- 6-3 230
- 11 havoc plays in ‘22
- Missed several games, returned for Louisville
- Line him up inside and outside
- Plus pass rusher, 3 pressures vs Louisville
- 4 missed tackles vs WF
LB Shayne Simon
- 6-3 235
- Notre Dame transfer
- six PBUs in ‘22
- Struggling as a tackler this season
- Good blitzer
- Scheme fit with they way they ask him to attack rather than read
LB Brandon George
- 6-3 245
- Career backup, 5th year player
- 2 TFLs
- Between the tackle runs stuffer
LB Kyle Louis
- 5-11 220
- Hybrid Rover type
- Missed 6 tackles vs VT and UNC
- Benched when Kamara came back
- Can get engulfed by bigger blockers, but good blitzer who knows who to get skinny
- Did not travel to WF, possible injury
LB Rasheem Biles
- 6-3 215
- two blocked kicks
LB Braylan Lovelace
- 6-2 220
- True freshman, rotational player at LB
- Outstanding two-way player in HS
- Rover type
- increased playing time, 8 tackles vs VT
- Did not travel for WF, possible injury
S Donovan McMillon
- 6-2 210
- Florida transfer
- leading tackler
- Good scheme fit, basically a small
LB S Javon McIntyre
- 6-1 195
- 2nd in tackles
- Primarily a box safety, plays downhill
- Super long, intriguing athlete in the slot
- 5.5 havoc plays
S Philip O’Brien
- 6-0 185
- Slot defender
- Not a natural fit there, but has been solid
- Pick against WF, but was a deep safety
CB AJ Woods
- 5-11 195
- 16 havoc plays in ‘22
- 4.28 40, top speed 23mph on the field
- Another player who has struggled tackling
- Louisville went after him, gave up 16 per reception and DPI on a deep ball
- Only one pass defended this season
CB MJ Devonshire
- 5-11 190
- Kentucky transfer
- 11 havoc plays, 2 picks sixes in ‘22
- 5 missed tackles in six games
- Grabby
- Had his best game of the season vs Louisville
- Struggled against the speed of UNC WR JJ Jones
- Still making plays, 10 havoc plays so far in ‘23
- Can get caught reaching in press and then get beat
CB Marquis Williams
- 5-9 180
- six career INTs
- 6th year player
- Gave up 8 for 128 vs Louisville
- 2 penalties vs Wake
Key for Notre Dame
Beat them on the perimeter
This isn’t exactly Notre Dame’s strong suit, but Pitt’s defense is built to win against the inside run game. They outnumber in the box and run blitz frequently. Going strength vs strength the entire game with them isn’t a recipe for success.
The Irish have to find matchups outside they can win and also get the ball out to the perimeter and let athletes like Jeremiyah Love, JD Price, Jordan Faison, and Chris Tyree get the ball in space.
Special Teams
Ben Sauls has been great on kickoffs for them with 77.1% of his going for touchbacks this fall. He’s also the kicker and has made 6 of 9 field goals. He’s 3 for 5 over 40 yards. He was 20 of 24 last season and made 15 of his last 16.
P Caleb Junko is averaging 43.1 per punt.
WR Kenny Johnson had a 100 yard TD return on a kickoff this season and he can fly so that is something to monitor in this game.
They gave up a punt return touchdown vs UNC where no one came close to the returner.
Freshman LB Rasheem Biles has two blocked punts this season.
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