Scouting Report | Wake Forest
Dave Clawson does not get enough credit for the job he has done at Wake Forest.
His 63-59 record might not be worthy of building him a statue, but they should probably rename a building after he moves on because it’s an amazing accomplishment just to have a winning record at Wake. The last coach to leave there with a winning record stopped coaching there in 1950.
Clawson has been to seven straight bowl games and they’ve won five of them.
That bowl streak seems likely to end, though. After a listless performance against NC State, they are now 4-6 on the season. After a 3-1 start, they’ve lost five of their last six games. They are 1-6 against ACC competition.
They just lost to Duke, a team who was without their starting quarterback and had seven other starters out. On Saturday they lost to NC State with Brennan Armstrong at quarterback. Armstrong only regained the job because NC State’s starter announced he was redshirting earlier in the week.
After the game, Clawson said Wake had “lost their way” and talked about finding solutions, which included playing more players who haven’t been starting previously.
So, to say that Wake Forest is reeling heading into their matchup with Notre Dame would be accurate. It’s also their seventh straight week without a break and they are feeling it.
Ranked 74th in SP+, this is a program that has overachieved for years. Just not this year.
Offense
Wake had one of the top offenses in the country the last two seasons and that has changed drastically. They have not been able to replace Sam Hartman at quarterback and AT Perry . Losing Donovan Greene for the season, one of the top senior wide receiver prospects in this NFL Draft, was another unexpected blow that they haven’t been able to recover from.
They are 114th points per drive, 120th in yards per play, and 92nd in SP+.
They still employ the same slow mesh offense with a fast tempo to try and run as many plays as possible (they are 24th in pace), but they’ve been much worse at running it at every phase.
Expected Strengths
They literally come into this game with none if we’re talking about areas where they’ve been good. In their seven ACC games, they’ve scored more than 20 points twice. It was 21 in their only win against Pitt and 21 in their loss to Duke.
Offensive tackle DeVonte Gordon and guard Michael Jurgens have been bright spots up front and Jahmal Banks has had moments on the boundary this season. That’s about it.
Potential Weaknesses
The quarterback play has been horrendous. They are 115th in PFF’s passing grade and 125th in EPA per drop back. It’s been that ugly.
Michael Griffis has been the starter, but it sounds like he won’t be the starter against Notre Dame after getting pulled against NC State. He might have lost his job already if Mitch Kern didn’t get injured.
They are 114th in 3rd down conversion percentage. They are 129th in red zone touchdown percentage. They score touchdowns on less than 50% of their trips to the red zone.
They don’t get much relief from explosive plays either. They were built on the deep ball before, but are 119th in plays of 20+ yards from scrimmage this season.
They don’t get much from running the ball either. They are 96th in EPA per rush and 79th in yards before contact per rush. The line can’t hold up like they have in previous years with too many leaks.
They had only seven yards rushing vs NC State.
They are 97th in havoc rate allowed and have already allowed 43 sacks in 10 games. They are 131st in sacks (130th in sack percentage) against per game and 131st in tackles for loss allowed per game. They allow pressure on 40% of drop backs and the backs have not been good at picking up the blitz.
Personnel notes
QB Mitch Griffis
- 5-11 193
- 136th in EPA per attempt, worse than Phil Jurkovec
- 3rd worst EPA per dropback
- Lowest YAC per reception out of any FBS starting QB
- 9 fumbles in 9 games
- 10 batted balls at the LOS
- Scrambled 12 times against Duke, most of the season
- Good passing day vs Duke
- Benched vs NC State
- Holds the ball too long and scared to let it go
QB Mitch Kern
- 6-2 192
- Replaced Griffis vs VT, 2 fumbles on strip sacks
- Injured and missed multiple games
- Replaced Griffis vs NC State, 5.3 YPA
- Decent touch, doesn’t have the arm to fit it into tight windows
- 4 of 14 vs the blitz against NC St, 3.5 YPA
QB Santino Marucci
- 6-1 217
- Started the Pitt game, threw two picks
- Former walk-on
- Tough kid, limited player
- Took three sacks vs Pitt that were on him
RB Demond Claiborne
- 5-9 200
- RB1
- Patient zone runner
- Good speed, runs hard
- Can do some damage if he gets a crease
- 20 runs of 10+ this season
RB Justice Ellison
- 5-10 209
- 51-yard run vs FSU
- Good at making defenders miss in the hole, but no burner
- Only 1 carry vs NC State, 10 or more carries in 6 games
RB Tate Carney
- 5-10 209
- Use him in short yardage
WR Taylor Morin
- 5-10 180
- 9 TDs in ‘22
- Punt returner
- Best suited for the slot, but plays out wide more in ‘23
- Solid and not flashy, 61 yard play vs Duke came on busted coverage
- 2 catches on 6 targets vs NC St
WR Jahmal Banks
- 6-4 205
- 9 TDs in ‘22
- Their best contested catch guy
- Big body, not a big threat after the catch
- 6 catches of 30+ yards in ‘22
- A bit stiff
- 0 catches on 5 targets vs NC St
WR Ke’Shawn Williams
- 5-10 190
- Primarily a slot who does his work over the middle
- Best game vs Duke, 7 for 90
- Fumble vs NC State WR Wesley Grimes
- 6-2 187
- Deep threat, ADOT of 16.9
- caught 1 pass since VT, doesn’t win contested
- His big plays came against weakest comp
WR Deuce Alexander
- 5-11 165
- First action vs NC State
- Great back shoulder catch for a touchdown
WR Horatio Fields
- 6-3 202
- Had 2 targets on the season, 5 vs NC St
TE Camerton Hite
- 6-3 243
- 1st year starter
- Only 15 targets, 2 catches vs NC St was a season high vs FBS opponents
LT Spencer Clapp
- 6-6 300
- Turnstile vs FSU, 5 pressures
- Struggled with speed
- Can be late with his hands and expose his chest
RT DeVonte Gordon
- 6-5 310
- Started both LT and RT
- Pitt and FSU’s edges gave him a tough time
- Mountainous frame, uses length well
- Beat him laterally
RT Erik Russell
- 6-6 301
- 3rd tackle who played when Clapp was hurt
- also will line up as TE
- Below average player
LG Michael Jurgens
- 6-4 311
- 6th year player
- Moved to center vs Duke, back to LG vs NC St
- Best player up front
- NFL prospect, dominant vs average comp
- Can get beat with quickness, good short setter
LG George Sell
- 6-4 300
- Started at LG vs Duke
- Blown up in short yardage
- A mismatch when he’s in the game
RG Matt Gulbin
- 6-4 313
- Solid overall, getting better this season
- Not super strong at the POA, can get controlled in the run game
C Luke Petitbon
- 6-2 294
- Out vs Duke, back for NC St
- Decent in pass pro, but struggles in the run game with a nose lined up on him
Key for Notre Dame
Crank up the pressure
This offense is looking for answers and just had their worst game of the season. They are fragile right now and their receivers haven’t proven they can win in man coverage.
Al Golden has ratcheted up the pressure in most games this season and he has plenty of reason to do so in this one too. If Notre Dame gets after it early, Wake will have a tough time finding their footing.
Teams have run delayed blitzes and given Wake fits.
Defense
This defense deserves better. (Where have you heard that before?)
No one would claim they are elite. How could they when they have allowed over 6.0 YPP vs Power 5 competition? But they have had no help from the offense all season.
They came into last week ranked 41st in points per drive and are currently 52nd in SP+.
At their best, this is a top-30 level defense in my opinion.
Brad Lambert had good defenses at Marshall (18th in DF+ in 2020) and Purdue (20th in 2021) before taking over at Wake Forest in 2022. He’s improved their defense to the point where they could hang with more of the top teams in the ACC and that wasn’t the case in the immediate years after Mike Elko left.
Expected Strengths
They have some “dudes”. They have three guys in edge Jasheen Davis, safety Malika Mustapha, and cornerback Caelan Carson who are good enough to play on Sundays. Those three and defensive tackle Kevin Pointer are good enough to start for pretty much any defense in the conference.
They are 14th in red zone touchdown percentage. That’s been a staple of wherever Lambert has been. His groups do a great job of playing disciplined in the red zone.
Potential Weaknesses
It isn’t a big group. They are quicker than big up front. All of their interior guys are 280ish and the linebackers aren’t big either. It’s the opposite of going up against Clemson’s front.
Duke pounded them in the second half. They are 88th in yards before contact per rush.
NC State had some big plays on the ground against them. They had a 65-yard reverse and Wake had trouble stopping the QB run game. They are 106th in 20+ yard runs allowed and give up too many big plays, period.
They are 100th in plays of 20+ yards from scrimmage.
Personnel notes
Edge Jasheen Davis
- 6-3 259
- 13 TFLs in ‘22
- Top-15 in pressures
- 18.3% pass rush win rate vs TPS
- Twitch and can turn the corner
- 17 havoc plays this season
- big time motor
- 8 pressures vs FSU
Edge Kendron Wayman
- 6-4 255
- Average player vs the run
- Not a good pass rusher, doesn’t have top traits
Edge BJ Williams
- 6-4 256
- Early down player
- Basically a zero as pass rusher
DT Kevin Pointer
- 6-1 282
- Louisiana Monroe transfer
- Disruptive first step
- 8 TFLs
- One-gap penetrator
- Want to run gap and not zone against him
- Will chase backside to make play when his man pulls
DT Justin Williams
- 6-2 282
- Plays hard, but clear drop off from the starters
DT Bryce Gainious
- Villanova transfer
- 6-2 281
- Active, quick
- Plus pass rusher from the interior
LB Jacob Roberts
- NC A&T transfer
- 6-1 233
- Leads the team in tackles
- 10 TFLs, 6 sacks
- Very good blitzer
- Better in between the tackles, misses some tackles in space
LB Dylan Hazen
- 6-1 228
- 7 TFLs
- Nothing flashy, but plus player
LB Quincy Bryant
- 6-0 224
- 3rd LB
- Only 7 snaps vs NC St
- Solid, but limited
LB Aiden Hall
- 6-2 217
- True freshman
- Over ⅔ of his snaps came in the last four games
- 18 snaps vs NC St
S Malik Mustapha
- 5-10 205
- 13 havoc plays in ‘22
- 36.5 inch vert
- top speed of 23 mph
- playmaker, downhill run defender
- move him around, versatile player
S Chelen Garnes
- 5-11 207
- 7 havoc plays
- played a lot of ball
- physical, box safety
S Nick Andersen
- 5-11 194
- Missed the ‘22 season
- Super productive as a freshman in ‘20
- Solid starter
S AJ Williams
- 5-11 200
- Hasn’t played since FSU game
- Box safety, below average in coverage
CB Caelan Carson
- 6-0 195
- Legit NFL prospect
- Questionable deep speed
- Battled FSU’s Keon Coleman, but gave up 2 TDs
- Smooth athlete
- Battles through the hands for PBUs
- 10 havoc plays
- Good run defender
CB DaShawn Jones
- 6-0 181
- Beat on a post in man coverage for TD vs Duke
- Late PI and unnecessary roughness helped set up game-winning FG
- 3 INTs
- Below average tackler
- Given up explosives in six games
CB Demarcus Rankin
- 6-0 183
- No snaps since FSU
- Picked on for big plays, 88.2% completions
Nickel Evan Slocum
- 5-11 191
- Been solid for them, 55.8 NFL passer rating
- top-10 in yards per snap, passer rating for slot corners
- Only big play given up was house call slant vs VT
Key for Notre Dame
Be nice until it’s time not to be nice
Notre Dame can be conventional and play safe because Wake’s offense is likely going to struggle, but they can pull away and make this ugly when the time is right.
Wake’s defense allows too many big plays and they had more missed tackles in their last two games than they had in any other games this season. When the Irish get a chance to go big, whether it be a gadget play, a deep shot, or something else, they need to take it because the bubble looks like it is ready to burst with Wake’s team in general.
Special Teams
They are 90th in SP+’s special teams rankings.
K Matthew Dennis is 14 of 19 on field goals with a long of 44. He started out 14 of 16. He missed two against Duke and has missed his last three field goals.
P Ivan Mora averages 41.3 yards per punt.
Morin is a solid punt returner in the Chris Finke mold. He’s going to get you what he can, but isn’t a game-breaker.
Claiborne has some juice as a kick returner. He had a 96-yard touchdown against Virginia Tech.
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