6 Thoughts on a Thursday
Notre Dame isn’t a full-member of the ACC in football, but they aren’t far off having to play five games against ACC opponents each year. Recently, in terms of wins and losses, that arrangement has worked out pretty well for the Irish.
They are 14-1 in the regular season the last three years against ACC teams. Even if you include the abomination that was the 2016 season, they are 23-7 overall (.766 winning percentage) against the conference since the scheduling agreement came into effect in 2014.
The only ACC program with a better winning percentage against the conference during that time is Clemson. It’s really almost comical how much they have dominated within the ACC since 2014. Their winning percentage is an unreal .957.
I think it’s pretty obvious if Notre Dame were to join the ACC as a full-time member in football, they would be the second best program next to Clemson. It’s also clear that the gap between them and the next tier of programs would be quite large.
That gap exists because of recruiting. While the Irish have some work to do to match the jump Clemson has taken in the last cycle and a half, they are a notch above other ACC programs because of consistency. In the last four cycles Notre Dame has signed 49 prospects with a 4 or 5-star ranking. Miami has signed 42. Florida State has signed 43. When comparing how Notre Dame has developed their players to Miami and FSU recently, the gap widens pretty significantly for Notre Dame.
The rest of the conference is way down the list of terms of blue-chip prospects brought in.
Clemson during the last four cycles has signed 52 blue-chip recruits, 13 of them 5-stars.
The Irish are clearly better than the rest of the conference. They are also clearly running behind Clemson, although they have a better shot at catching them than Florida State and Miami at the moment.
The two programs play each other three times over the next four years. It’s an opportunity to show where things stand for Brian Kelly and Notre Dame football as a whole. Clemson has already reached the mountaintop twice in the previous four years and they are built to get back there again in the next four. If Notre Dame wants to do the same, they’ll have to go through Dabo Swinney’s team.
By the end of 2023, it will be four times in six years and five games overall that Irish have gone head to head with the Tigers. They’ll only call it a rivalry by the end of it if Notre Dame shows they can beat them.
The closest comparison I can think of to Notre Dame playing Clemson so many times is USC under Pete Carroll. They were a similar juggernaut and the Irish had the misfortune of playing them every year while the program was often down. No one associated with Notre Dame wants to see a replay of that scenario and that’s what makes these upcoming games the most important ones Kelly will have coached while in South Bend.
2. These programs aren’t going head to head on recruits very often, but they are going to be with running back Will Shipley and potentially with offensive tackle Nolan Rucci. Both are top-100 recruits in this class with Shipley 20th currently in the composite rankings and Rucci 14th. (I have Rucci 23rd in the ISD Fab 50 and Shipley just outside of it at 73.)
Those two are critically important recruits for Notre Dame outside of being outstanding prospects. It’s mostly because Clemson has been stockpiling top-100 prospects in recent cycles and Notre Dame has been pretty stagnant when it comes to recruits of that caliber.
Notre Dame signed 14 top-100 recruits in the four cycles (2012-2015) that fed into that 2015 team that lost a close game to Clemson. Swinney signed 13 during that same time, so it’s not a surprise that the two teams were so evenly matched when it came to great players.
Fast forward to when the two met again in the College Football Playoff after the 2018 regular season and Clemson had widened the gap with top-100 recruits. Notre Dame signed 14 from 2015 to 2018. Clemson signed 22.
Heading into this year Notre Dame has signed, you guessed it, 14 top-100 prospects in the previous four cycles. Clemson has signed 23.
That number is also going to grow for Clemson. 10 of those 23 came in the 2020 class and they already have six committed in the ‘21 cycle. If they throw Shipley and Rucci on to the pile while taking them away from Notre Dame, it’s going to make things even tougher in the next two games.
It’s not just that they will help Notre Dame if they choose the Irish. It’s that they won’t be helping Clemson, which is something Irish fans have to think about now.
3. Speaking of signing more top-100 prospects, Alabama has signed 40 top-100 prospects over the last four cycles. Georgia has signed 39. Ohio State has signed 35. LSU has signed 24. Those programs and Clemson are the only ones who have over 20.
USC has signed 20, but only five in the last two cycles.
Notre Dame is in the same tier as Penn State (15), Auburn (14), Florida (12), Texas (16), Texas A&M (17), FSU (12), Miami (12) and Oklahoma (13).
No one should be expecting Notre Dame to ever get to the point where they average 10 top-100 recruits a cycle. Alabama has so many guys like that on their roster that they can afford to take on character risks like Antonio Alfano and not have it make an impact at all when he transfers. I just don’t see that being the case for Notre Dame.
Can they get to the point where they average about five in a cycle? I think that is definitely achievable and they’ll need to do that and continue to hit home runs with some lower-ranked recruits like they have been.
4. Clemson has finished 5th, 6th, 1st, and 7th in sack rate the last four seasons. Notre Dame cannot be one dimensional trying to rely on the pass to beat them. I know LSU shredded them through the air, but Notre Dame does not have the same personnel that they had. And if you look at the five games Clemson has lost in the last five seasons, every team but 2017 Alabama has had success running the ball on them. That ‘17 Bama team won with defense against Kelly Bryant at quarterback.
(All of these stats are minus lost yardage for sacks)
LSU rushed for 194 yards and 7.76 yards per carry last season. Alabama rushed for 4.25 YPC and 170 yards in 2015. Syracuse rushed for 4.9 and 201. Pitt rushed for 5.25 and 163.
We know Clemson doesn’t have Bryant at quarterback so it’s going to be tough to win the game on defense. Notre Dame has to have some success running the ball against them or they’ll have no shot at winning the game.
5. If there was one area where Notre Dame had a big edge over Clemson when they played at the Cotton Bowl it was the Irish defensive line against Clemson’s O-line. Maybe I’ll change my mind before they play, but I think it will be an advantage for the guys in blue and gold again.
Notre Dame is replacing some talented edge defenders, but I think the oness they have returning are going to be more than fine. Ade Ogundeji, who had a sack in that game going against All-American tackle Mitch Hyatt, will be someone that Clemson should be concerned about.
The Tigers are replacing four starters and the O-line is the one area where they haven’t recruited nearly as well compared to the rest of the roster. The pass rush will have to harass Trevor Lawrence because if they give him too much time in the pocket, he could go off.
6. Dabo Swinney is one of the coaches I like the least in college football, but I respect the success he has brought to Clemson’s program on the field. No one can deny the impact he has had in turning them into a true power that is on equal footing with Alabama.
That’s precisely why if Notre Dame is able to beat Clemson, that win would mean more for how Brian Kelly will be remembered than any other.
These games mean more. They mean more for Notre Dame and mean more for Kelly in terms of how he’ll be viewed when his time is over at Notre Dame. A win or multiple wins would be as big as Florida State in 1993 or Miami in 1988.
That’s why I devoted all 6 Thoughts to Clemson this week and why there will be many more thoughts about this potential rivalry in the weeks to come.
