6 Thoughts on a Thursday
Clemson had a two year run where they had a generational quarterback throwing to two elite receivers that could take over a game in an instant. The combination of Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross was almost unstoppable.
Together the pair combined for 42 touchdowns in 2018 and 2019. Having two 6’4” receivers that could win vertically and also dominate in 50/50 situations made their offense special. When a running back like Travis Etienne was thrown in, it allowed the offense to jump to another level and forced teams to make a decision: they could either load up to stop the dominant runner or constantly play two high safeties to help combat the giant receivers.
Whatever option teams chose in that scenario never seemed to work out.
Higgins is now gone to the NFL. Ross is gone too, but it’s an injury that has taken him off the field. It’s just Etienne left of that great trio and he doesn’t have his starting quarterback for this game against Notre Dame.
Clemson’s 2020 offense does not lack for talent, even without Lawrence. Amari Rodgers has been fantastic this season replacing some of the production lost from Higgins and Ross. He’s been among the top receivers in the ACC. But he’s not 6’4” and even if he was, that would be one replacement for Higgins and Ross. The Tigers haven’t been able to find the other receiver to pair with him yet.
The way they have replaced those yards is to activate Etienne in the passing game in a more expanded role. He had 37 catches last season for 432 yards. He’s already at 29 catches for 434 yards this season.
I highlighted in my piece yesterday how he’s their best player and he can beat defenses in a variety of ways. If Notre Dame wants to stop this Clemson offense they’ll have to worry about a lot of different things, but one thing is clear if they want to win. They can’t let Etienne take over the game. If Clemson’s offense is going to beat them, they need to make someone else step up and do it.
He leads the country in plays from scrimmage that have gone for 20 yards or more. He averages 148.6 yards per game as a runner and receiver.
When Lawrence has been absent as the starter, Etienne has taken over. Lawrence left the game against Syracuse last season with an injury. All Etienne did was rush for 203 yards and three touchdowns on that day. With a freshman quarterback getting his first start last week, Etienne took over and pitched in 224 total yards and two touchdowns. That was 50% of the yards Clemson gained on the day. (Oh, he chipped in a 40-yard kick return as well)
Clemson is not going to want to put this game on the shoulders of DJ Uiagalelei if they don’t have to. They are going to milk everything they can with Etienne as a runner and receiver to make sure they get this win before Lawrence comes back the following week.
Notre Dame has to do everything they can stop him. Clark Lea needs to do everything in his power to make someone else other than Etienne beat them. Sure, he’ll want to minimize the damage of their other weapons like Rodgers and tight end Braden Galloway, but neither of them have shown they can take over a game like Etienne can.
The less touches Etienne has, the better chance of Notre Dame winning the game. Let the other guys prove they can dominate in a game like this. Don’t let Etienne make a case for a Heisman.
2. It seems like I have written for months how Notre Dame’s defensive line winning against Clemson’s offensive line will be huge in this game. It’s going to be even more critical because of the change at quarterback.
Notre Dame has to win up front to slow down Etienne as a runner and they have to pressure Uigalelei. He was outstanding in his debut against Boston College throwing for 342 yards, 8.3 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He did that while only being pressured on 15.9% of snaps, though.
Some of that is a credit to the offensive line that has done well in protection this season (16th in sack rate less than 20% pressure rate overall). Some of that has to do with Boston College not having a very good pass rush.
Clemson has played one team with a decent pass rush and it’s Virginia, but that team generates pressure from blitzing 50% of the time. That’s not the way Notre Dame plays (they are closer to 30%) and they have a much better front four.
I think this might be a game where we see Clark Lea bring back the Bear front he used against Clemson in the CFP in 2018. Clemson runs a ton of five man protection (they had it on 52.3% of snaps against BC last week) and I believe the Irish will have a big advantage if Clemson has to block five against five often.
3. Brent Venables is the best defensive coordinator in college football. He’s coached elite defenses for so long at Clemson and it stays that way no matter who they lose from the previous year. His group is always prepared and always brings something extra to the table with unique pressures.
This piece by Matt Connolly from thestate.com did a great job of explaining how Venables constantly changes what he is doing so the offense might not always be sure what they are getting ready to see heading into the game.
What that piece also explained was how bringing something new to the game is essential for an offense to have success because if he has seen it before, it’s probably not going to work against them.
One thing I have been impressed by with Tommy Rees this season has been the decisions to tweak things each week to be a little different whether it’s blocking schemes, pre-snap motion, or route combinations so opposing defenses can’t get too comfortable. He might need more than some tweaks in this game.
If everything the Notre Dame offense runs are things they have run already, that’s not going to be good enough against Venables. There has to be a little something extra this week and it might be something that Brian Kelly and Jeff Quinn ran when they were at Cincinnati, or something John McNulty can borrow from his time in the NFL, or that Lance Taylor can grab from Stanford.
The offense has its identity, but it will take more than that to put up points against this opponent.
4. No teams run on Clemson. Okay, that might not be completely true, but it’s not far off.
Only a few teams have run on Clemson in the last five and half seasons. In their last 66 games, only three teams have averaged over five yards per carry against them. Alabama did it twice and Ohio State did it once.
So if you’re feeling confident that Notre Dame is going to run it on Clemson, you shouldn’t be. They can find some success, but it’s more likely it will be a grind similar to the Pitt game.
Getting three or four on first down and converting on 3rd and short is going to be important at times in this matchup, but it can’t be the main strategy. It will ultimately fail because Clemson is too good at putting teams behind the sticks with negative plays (23.8% Havoc Rate). Because of that, long drives aren’t going to be very successful. It just forces the offense to be too perfect for too long.
Clemson has given up 14 touchdowns this season. Only two of them have been drives where the offense ran 10 or more plays. Unless Notre Dame is going to have short fields to work with because of turnovers, they are going to need to find more big plays in this game to shorten drives.
In the 2018 game, Notre Dame didn’t have a run longer than 11 yards and only had two catches over 20 yards.
5. It goes without saying that Ian Book is going to have to play well. He’s going to have to make some throws he’s missed (more on that in #6) and he’s going to have to create plays when things break down.
Book has created 284 yards of offense (47.3 per game) outside of the framework of the play call. Sometimes he might miss a read, but he has been able to make something out of what might be nothing a number of times as well.
If Notre Dame doesn’t get the big production from the running game, he might need to double that average. He did that against Pitt, the best defense Notre Dame has faced, with 98 yards and four first downs.
I’m going to be very interested to see how Venables attacks Book. He blitzed him on ⅓ of drop backs in 2018 with Book finishing 8 of 13, with 4.2 YPA, and being sacked three times versus the blitz. That and the fact that Clemson has blitzed opposing quarterbacks 43% of the time this season might suggest Venables turns up the heat, but Book has been good against it (60.3% completion, 8.5 YPA).
While I know Book has had some issues against teams dropping eight into coverage in the past, that is also a scenario where it can let Book do some damage with his legs or have some extra time to create on scramble play.
We’ll find out soon enough what Venables will do, but you can bet he won’t want Book to get comfortable either way.
6. Book’s completion percentage in the red zone in 2018 and 2019: 62%
Book’s percentage in the red zone in 2020: 35.7%
Book wasn’t just competent in the red zone the last two years. He was very good. I don’t need to tell you he hasn’t been anywhere close to that this season. Just look at that percentage.
He doesn’t have Chase Claypool, Cole Kmet, or Miles Boykin anymore. Let’s not pretend not having them isn’t a factor. They were responsible for 20 of Book’s 31 red zone touchdowns.
It’s not all about not having them, though. Book has to be better in the red zone. They aren’t beating Clemson if they make it inside the 20 and have to settle for field goal attempts.
This would be a great time for him to break out of his red zone slump. And it would also be a great time to have the next Boykin, Claypool, or Kmet emerge to help him out.