Scouting Report | Boston College
Jeff Hafley has been coaching for a long time so his rise was meteoric like it might seem. He just was in the background more before getting his chance to coordinate a defense on the big stage at Ohio State.
He did a fantastic job there and that led him to being named the head coach at Boston College. What he’s done in his first season has been impressive. His program was projected to be one of the worst in the conference and they are 5-3 overall and 4-3 in conference play. That includes one score losses to Clemson and North Carolina.
He’ll have his team ready and motivated to play Notre Dame this week, but he’ll have to make sure they are more disciplined than they have been. BC is 107th in penalty yards per game and will need to play very clean to have a shot at an upset.
Injuries
LB Isaiah McDuffie was injured against Syracus and his status against Notre Dame is unknown. He’s one of the leading tacklers in the country.
Starting safety Jahmin Muse was also injured and it’s unclear if he will play as well.
WR Kobay White is out for the season and he would have given them another big play threat outside.
Offense
This offense has been much better than expected and has experienced a large philosophical change from the previous regime. Everything is now built around the quarterback and the passing game.
Though they are 85th in yards per play, they’re 43rd in SP+ and 60th in FEI. They have some playmakers that help make up for some of their weaknesses.
Expected Strengths
The biggest strength has been the play of their quarterback. Phil Jurkovec has been good for them even without much help at times. It’s been impressive how he has handled pressure in his face and he has the arm to make every deep throw.
He’s also been a true dual-threat and is averaging 6.2 yards per carry minus sack yardage.
The offense is 13th in passing plays of 30 yards or more. They can strike for a big gain at any moment and have two of the best receiving options in the ACC.
Receiver Zay Flowers has been a stud for them. He can win deep and contested. He can help with jet sweeps in the running game. He has 11 catches of 20 yards or more.
Tight end Hunter Long has been a breakout star this season. No tight end in college football has more receptions than him. He’s a reliable intermediate target who rarely drops a pass. 28 of his 43 receptions have gone for 1st downs.
The receiving group as a whole has been a pleasant surprise. CJ Lewis is big (6’3” 217) and does well boxing out corners. Ohio State transfer Jaelan Gill hasn’t had a huge role, but has made some plays out of the slot.
They are 32nd in the country in 3rd down conversion percentage.
Potential Weaknesses
The running game has been bad. This used to the identity of the team, but some losses on the offensive line and no more AJ Dillon was part of their pivot towards a different system.
They are 101st in carries that gain at least 4 yards. They are 111th in YPC (3.06). The old school smash mouth mentality is gone and that was how they found success previously. The offensive line is bad as a whole.
This is partly because they were recruited to run a different system, but they give up a good amount of pressure and are inconsistent run blocking. They’re 84th in sack rate, give up pressure on 40% of drop backs, and Jurkovec has been sacked 22 times.
LT Zion Johnson and RG Ben Petrula have struggled in protection.
Not all of that is on the line. Jurkovec holds the ball too long to try and make a play and has also fumbled five times. No one in the country has been pressured more than Jurkovec. Some of that is on him.
They have been brutal in the red zone. Their touchdown percentage is only 50%. That’s not going to cut it if they want to pull off the upset this week.
Scheme
Frank Cignetti sounds like he is a private detective, but he’s someone who came from the NFL with plenty of experience. He’s instituted a system that is heavy with play-action passing. About ⅓ of their drop backs are play-action and almost 40% of Jurkovec’s yards come off of play-action passes.
They want to take as many deep shots as possible. Jurkovec averages 6 deep throws per game.
Expect a lot of pre-snap motion, a lot of boot, and about 40% 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends).
They pass the ball 52% of the time.
Key Players
QB Phil Jurkovec - A huge upgrade for them at quarterback. He misses some easier throws, but will come back and make a great one after.
WR Zay Flowers - Notre Dame will want to make sure they are playing a safety over the top of him on most plays.
TE Hunter Long - We could see him matched up against Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah quite a bit.
RB David Bailey - When he can get downhill, he’s a physical runner. He hasn’t been able to get downhill very much in 2020.
Key Matchup for Notre Dame
Flowers vs Nick McCloud - Long is the go-to player who moves the sticks, but Flowers can change the game with one play. McCloud has been physical and aggressive, but has had trouble tracking the ball deep.
Defense
Hafley didn’t inherit great talent on defense, but he’s helped this group plays hard under coordinator Tem Lukabo. They are 59th in FEI, 69th in SP+, and 51st in YPP, but that’s with a bunch of players who will be going pro in something other than football.
Expected Strengths
They have caused 14 turnovers, including seven interceptions. They have done that by playing fairly disciplined in the back end of their defense and getting a decent amount of pressure.
They average 2.75 sacks per game and they are led by a solid group of edge rushers. Marcus Valdez’ sack totals aren’t big, but puts a lot of heat on quarterbacks. Max Roberts and Brandon Barlow are solid as well.
They’re very effective when they blitz and fit where everything is supposed to be. Linebackers Max Richardson and Isaiah McDuffie are both thumpers and like most of BC’s blitzers, they win a lot against running backs.
Potential Weaknesses
They’ve given up 27 passes of 20 yards or more and are 118th in plays of 20 yards or more from scrimmage. This has more to do with talent than mental mistakes in my opinion.
Clemson killed them with Travis Etienne out of the backfield (140 yards) and the linebackers are a huge liability in coverage. Georgia Tech’s backs both had big gains against BC. This could be a day where Notre Dame’s back and tight ends go off.
They are pretty average when it comes to situational defense. It’s the big plays that have hurt them the most. Virginia Tech gashed them with quarterback runs.
Scheme
They blitz 36.7% of the time and mostly play zone behind it, but will mix it up. They aren’t overly exotic with how they do things and keep it simple.
They try to keep a lot of stuff in front of them and they have given up big plays when they have tackled poorly. Virginia Tech and North Carolina were examples of that. When they do tackle well, like they did against Clemson, the simple approach can look pretty good.
Key Players
LB Max Richardson - Leads the country in tackles, but he’s not an agile guy in coverage.
LB Isaiah McDuffie - Physical and a very good blitzer. If he’s out this week, their run defense should take a big hit.
Edge Marcus Valdez - Leads their team in pressures.
Key Matchup for Notre Dame
Kyren Williams vs Richardson - If they can isolate Richardson on a wheel route, expect good things for the Irish.
Special Teams
They are 87th SP+ on special teams.
Kicker Aaron Boumerhi is 9 of 10 on kicks inside of 40 yards. He’s 1 of 4 on kicks of 40 yards or longer.
Punter Grant Carlson is consistently average. He’s not going to blow it for BC, but he’s not going to flip the field often.
The coverage and return teams are average. Notre Dame should have a pretty big edge against them in that department.