Uyeyama's Keys to the Game | Boston College
The more and more I have dived deeper into the matchup between Notre Dame and Boston College, the more I like the Irish to win comfortably. It’s more than just a talent gap between the two programs. It’s the way I see things trending with both teams.
Phil Jurkovec has been very good for BC in leading them to a 5-3 record. However, his numbers against winning teams this season have been mediocre at best. He’s averaging 6.6 yards per attempt versus 8.4 YPA against losing teams. His pass efficiency drops over 26 points against programs with winning records.
BREAKING NEWS: Notre Dame is a winning team.
BC has no shot in this game unless Jurkovec plays lights out. He has not done that against the best teams on BC’s schedule.
The Irish have an elite run defense (2.6 yards per carry on 1st down and first in Stuff Rate). BC has struggled to run the football and won’t do it in this game. That means the game will be in the hands of Jurkovec.
No quarterback in the country has been pressured more times than him and he’s handled it pretty well. He can’t carry the offense all by himself against the best teams in the ACC, though. I think it’s going to be difficult for BC to put up points and two of my keys to the game have to do with that. The third is a mismatch that several teams have exploited against BC’s defense this season.
Make Jurkovec settle for shorter throws
It may be a surprise that Boston College has pivoted so far away from their previous offensive identity, but it’s not a shock because they are playing to their strength of their quarterback. They are a heavy play-action team (⅓ of their passing plays and nearly 40% of their yards come off of play-action) and much of the time they use it to take deep shots down the field.
As Notre Dame fans know, Jurkovec throws the deep ball well. The Notre Dame defense has to take away those deep throws as much as possible. And if they do attempt to take those shots, the pass rush has to put Jurkovec on the ground.
An important part of it will be to win with only four rushers. Clemson brought the house in the first half against Jurkovec and got burned for two passing plays longer than 30-yards. Those plays helped set up touchdowns for BC.
In the second half Clemson blitzed a lot less. Jurkovec was 4 of 12 for 43 yards (3.6 per attempt) with no deep completions.
Against Syracuse last week, Jurkovec was only blitzed on 10 of 30 drop backs. They also limited his deep throws and tried to keep everything in front of them. BC reached the red zone five times, but only managed one touchdown.
BC’s red zone offense is bad. They only score touchdowns 50% of the time they get inside the 20 yard line. Notre Dame must limit the big plays through the air and force Jurkovec to be efficient to beat them.
Limit Hunter Long
Clark Lea loves to take away the other team’s best offensive weapon and it’s arguable if it’s wide receiver Zay Flowers or tight end Hunter Long for BC.
Flowers is the big play guy and I do expect Notre Dame to cheat a safety over the top of where he is aligned on most plays. Long is the guy who helps BC consistently move the chains, though. No tight end in the country has caught more passes than him and 28 of his 43 catches have gone for 1st downs.
I’d expect Lea to mix up what he’ll do matching up with Long, but Kyle Hamilton is someone who has proven he can shut down tight ends and slot receivers again and again. I think we’ll see him one on one against Long quite a bit on 3rd downs.
It’s not a coincidence that BC started out 3-1 and were constantly targeting Long in those games. He was targeted 46 times in the first four weeks. Defenses have started to pay more attention to him and his targets have dropped to 21 over the last four games. BC is 2-2 in those matchups.
Exploit the mismatch
Notre Dame is going to run the ball and should do it pretty well, but it is worth mentioning that BC’s run defense has been very good in recent weeks. In their last three games they have held teams to 3.14 yards per carry.
If linebacker Isaiah McDuffie isn’t playing, that will hurt them. I do not expect the Irish to run the ball at will on BC with or without McDuffie.
One mismatch Notre Dame should be able to exploit is Kyren Williams and the Irish running backs versus BC’s linebackers. Opposing backs in the ACC have feasted on them with 30 catches for 434 (14.5 per reception).
Last week was all about blitz pickup. This week could be about big plays in the passing game.