6 Thoughts on a Thursday
Clark Lea has had three impressive seasons coordinating the Notre Dame defense. There is a lot to be said about the culture he’s helped build and emphasis on fundamentals throughout all position groups. All three of his defenses have had that as their foundation and it’s shown up time and time again.
He’s now coached on two teams who have had two undefeated regular seasons.The 2018 team was built around a strong defense. This current incarnation of the Irish is much more balanced, but the defense they are playing right now stacks up well compared with the ‘18 team.
It’s incredible how different the two groups are.
The 2018 team was loaded with future NFL Draft picks. They had an All-American at one corner spot and a 4th round pick at the other. They finished 10th in SP+ and 16th in FEI. The pass defense was elite (only 5.6 yards per attempt against) and they were 5th in points per scoring opportunity (when the opponent reaches your 40 yard line).
This 2020 defense certainly has some great players and there are at least a handful of future NFL players amongst the starters, but Lea has this defense winning in different ways than the 2018 team.
They are 9th in SP+ and 10th in FEI, so the rankings are similar. This unit is built around Havoc, though. They create negative plays and that has made up for them giving up more big chunk yardage.
The Havoc Rate for the 2020 defense is 22.4%, which is going to finish top-10 in the country (likely top-five). The Stuff Rate is 30.5% (1st). The sack rate is 8.3% (27th). They are fifth in Power Success Rate (not allowing conversions on 3rd or 4th and short).
Compare that to the 2018 team and it looks drastically different. The Havoc Rate was 17.3% (41st), Stuff Rate was 18.7% (71st), and Power Success Rate was 98th. The Sack Rate was 6.7% (55th).
That might be surprising to some when you put up the one for one comparisons with Notre Dame’s front seven with the two teams. Jerry Tillery, Julian Okwara, and Khalid Kareem combined for 33.5 tackles for loss in ‘18. The duo of Te’von Coney and Drue Tranquill were as good as any set of inside linebackers the Irish have had in the last few decades. Right there makes it seem like the numbers from the two seasons should be switched.
But it’s not just about the front line guys for Notre Dame this season. It’s all of the pieces together that make the defense as good as it is and it’s a much deeper group with their front seven. With that depth, the overall mentality has been to put offenses behind the sticks and get into favorable 3rd down situations.
That has been a constant and it’s a huge reason why Notre Dame has been elite on 3rd down, only allowing conversions on 26.36% of attempts (second in the country).
The 2018 defense was a bend, but don’t break, group. They didn’t create the negative plays, but they were one of the best at not giving up explosive plays. Then when teams crossed midfield, they shut things down.
The 2020 Notre Dame defense is about breaking their opponent. They may give up more big plays, but they win at the line of scrimmage with stout play from their interior defensive linemen and the linebackers are able to play downhill because of it. They get teams into 3rd downs and they get stops.
It’s two different defenses in terms of identity and yet, it’s the same coordinator.
I don’t know what the future holds with Lea and his time at Notre Dame, but I hope he’s back running the defense in 2021. Part of that is because I know he’s a heck of a coach and he’ll continue to have a strong defense no matter who his personnel are. The other part is that I’m interested to see how much this has to do with Lea being a chameleon or if this Havoc monster is the direction the defense is headed.
2. Speaking of Havoc monster, no one is more deserving of that description than Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. He’s been consistently making splash plays in his two seasons as a starter. He’s up to 16 Havoc plays this fall in only 10 games. He had 19 last season.
Notre Dame fans can debate the best linebackers of the Brian Kelly era, but it’s really difficult to do. My top three would be Manti Te’o, Jaylon Smith, and JOK and they couldn’t be more different when contrasting their skill sets and how they were used in the defense.
What is not up for debate is the fact that Notre Dame has not had a better playmaker at linebacker in the last decade than JOK. He’s accumulated 35 tackles for loss, interceptions, pass break ups, and forced fumbles over the last two years and still has as many as three games left this season.
Te’o had 32.5 in his final two years for the Irish. Smith had 27. Tranquill had 28.5. Coney had 28.
If there is one thing Notre Dame can count on if they make the College Football Playoff, it will be that JOK is going to make plays no matter who they are playing.
3. Speaking of making plays, the duo of Drew White (10) and Bo Bauer (6.5) at Mike linebacker have a combined 16.5 Havoc plays. That’s outstanding production, but may be going unnoticed because it’s two splitting the position rather than just one.
If you add in their tackle numbers per game (7.6), they aren’t far off from what Te’o would do in a season (if you’re strictly looking at numbers).
Both have been good in their respective roles. Together, they pull a Voltron and make a heck of a Mike linebacker.
4. The offensive line is getting praised for being one of the best in college football. Ian Book is doing an interview during Clemson’s game last week (LOL). Michael Mayer has been called Baby Gronk enough that casual college football fans have heard it. Kyren Williams is getting shoutouts from LeBron. Javon McKinley is getting number one wide receiver love.
With all of that, I don’t think anyone can say Notre Dame’s offense isn’t getting the respect it deserves. They have earned the attention and are getting it.
If Clemson didn’t respect Notre Dame’s offense, they do now after they had more success against them than any other program this fall. The Irish are the only team to throw for over 300 and rush for over 200 against the Tigers. They are also the only team to score over 30 in regulation.
The matchup is going to be so interesting to watch because Notre Dame is clearly the best offense that Brent Venables’ defense had to go up against. We know what happened.
Yes, they were missing some starters. We don’t know how much of a difference that will make much like we don’t know how much of a difference seeing the Notre Dame offense again will make. Venables has never coached against a team twice in the same season since he’s been at Clemson.
We do know this is a very good Notre Dame offense. If Clemson stops them it will be because they played great and not because Notre Dame doesn’t have the talent to beat them. This isn’t like the 2012 and 2018 teams where the offense wasn’t on par with the defense.
Notre Dame is sixth in points per possession in 2020. The only two Power 5 offenses above them are Alabama and Clemson. They are 9th in SP+ and FEI. They were 33rd and 29th in 2018. They were 35th and 25th in 2012.
5. PFF tracks numbers for quarterbacks for when they are pressured and when they are not. It’s pretty interesting to look at with Trevor Lawrence this season.
With the caveat that every quarterback is going to be worse when pressured, it does pop out how significantly worse Lawrence has been. With no pressure, he’s 75% passer and averages a gaudy 10.6 yards per attempt. Under pressure he’s a 37% passer and averages only 4.8 YPA .
So, yeah, getting pressure on him will be pretty important.
He’s only been sacked 11 times in his eight starts and has been pressured on 22.1% of his drop backs. Their line is very good in protection and Notre Dame only got pressure on 25% of drop backs in the last matchup.
Before anyone gets ahead of themselves and thinks this means that Notre Dame needs to blitz him a ton, it’s important to mention that the worst game of his career came against LSU and he struggled way more when not blitzed. He was only 9 of 20 and 3.9 YPA when that happened.
They beat him by making him indecisive and taking away his first read. Having a ton of studs defensive backs helped too.
With all of the talk of how much of a winner Book is, it might be easy to forget that Lawrence is even a notch above that level. He’s only lost one game in his career and if Notre Dame is going to make it two, they’ll need to make him uncomfortable with pressure and mixing up coverage looks.
6. Every year there seems to be chaos when it comes to the College Football Playoff and this year has been chaotic since they started playing. Games are being cancelled and rescheduled left and right. Rules are being changed to accommodate some teams and Ohio State is the most recent team to benefit from that.
I don’t have an issue with the Big Ten doing that. It’s a pandemic. Things change. Making stupid rules and forcing teams to fit into a specific criteria when things are constantly changing around them doesn’t seem fair, which is why I have no issue with the Big Ten changing the rules to help Ohio State stay eligible to play for the conference championship.
What I do have an issue with is seven games counting the same as eleven games. It is not nine compared to eleven or twelve to thirteen. It’s five more games that a team has played. That is a huge difference that has to be taken into consideration when picking the teams.
If Notre Dame beats Clemson again, they are in. They don’t have to worry about anything.
If they lose to Clemson, they should still be in because that initial Clemson win is better than any other win any other program has and because going 10-1 and losing to a team you already beat is a lot better than 7-0.
Ohio State getting in if Clemson gets knocked out is okay with me. Ohio State getting in over Notre Dame when comparing the two is not okay with me. That’s some handing Bobby Bowden a national championship in 1993 because he hasn’t won one before type of trash.
Notre Dame can beat Clemson and it won’t be a debate. Even if they don’t, it still shouldn’t be one.