Scouting Report | Alabama
It was eight years ago that Brian Kelly led Notre Dame to the national championship game against Alabama. There was plenty of hope about the Irish winning that game leading up to that matchup.
Then the game started.
It wasn’t a case of Notre Dame not showing up that night in the Orange Bowl. It was clear that Alabama had a roster that was on a different level. The Irish defense had seven starters that would become NFL Draft picks, yet they looked like a JV squad next to an Alabama offense that averaged 7.25 yards per play and put up 42 points on a group that had not given up more than 20 once in the previous 12 games.
Kelly has brought Notre Dame a long way since then. They’ve won 10 or more games in five of the last six seasons and they’re in the College Football Playoff for the second time in three years. The roster is deeper and more talented than it was in 2012. This is the healthiest the football program has been in decades.
Unfortunately, Nick Saban has not taken a step back at Alabama. They are also deeper and more talented than they were in 2012, which is part of the reason why they are heavy favorites to beat Notre Dame.
This Alabama team might be the best Notre Dame has played in the last decade. It’s going to take a great performance to beat them.
Injuries
There are two big ones.
C Landon Dickerson is out with a knee injury and he’s arguably the top center in college football. He won’t be easy to replace.
WR Jaylen Waddle is out and he was arguably the most explosive playmaker in college football. He’s impossible to replace, but they have enough talent on offense that they haven’t missed a beat.
Offense
Alabama’s offense is 1st in FEI and 1st in SP+. It’s the best offense in college football and up there with the best in recent memory. They average 7.83 YPP and have three players in the top-five in Heisman voting. They’re the first team to have that since 1946.
Does anything more to be said? It’s capital “E” Elite.
Expected strengths
It all starts up front where they are once again nominated for the Joe Moore Award as the best offensive line in the country. They are 8th in sack rate, 10th in stuff rate, and are very good across the board.
With Dickerson out, left tackle Alex Leatherwood is the standout. He’s a beast in the run game and is a dominant player.
As impressive as they are run blocking, they have been fantastic protecting quarterback Mac Jones. He’s only pressured on 18.5% of drop backs. They’ve only allowed double digit pressures twice (Georgia and Mississippi State). Notre Dame will not win this game unless they can get to Jones and no defense has been great at that against this offensive line.
There was a thought that Alabama’s passing offense would take a step back when Tua Tagovailoa left for the NFL, but Jones has been phenomenal. The deep ball was considered a weakness for him before the season, but he’s completing 57% of his deep throws. His 11.4 yards per attempt leads the nation.
He’s been money in the red zone completing 75% of his throws 15 touchdowns against zero picks. As a team they are 8th in red zone touchdown percentage. He hasn’t had a game where he finished below a 66% completion percentage. The level of consistency from him is what has made him so special.
Of course, he looks a lot better because he is throwing to the best receiver in college football. DeVonta Smith is the top guy and there is no other who is even close to him. He has 39 receptions on deep balls (20+ yards or longer) and is great in almost every area. No one consistently gains separation like he does. He feasts on one on one coverage.
John Metchie has emerged as a really good number two. He’s also a deep threat. The Crimson Tide are tied for seventh in plays of 30-yards or more because of Smith and him.
In case you thought this was purely a dangerous aerial attack, the running game is very good as well. Najee Harris and Brian Robinson Jr. are a physical combination in the backfield with Harris as the bell cow. He’s incredibly tough to tackle with only UNC’s Javonte Williams forcing more missed tackles than him this season running and catching the football.
In case you thought this was only a big play offense, it needs to be mentioned that they are 1st in 3rd down offense. They are difficult to get off the field and that means more opportunities for big chunk yardage.
Potential Weaknesses
A lot of strengths and not many weaknesses.
Jones is protected so well, but he’s not a running threat. Notre Dame doesn’t have to account for him in the running game so that is one less thing to worry about. And if they can get to him with their pass rush, he’s not going to escape and hurt them with off-platform throws.
Both Georgia and Texas A&M held them to under 4.0 yards per carry. So the running game can be slowed and neither of the backs are breakaway threats. Harris is right up there with the North Carolina backs in 10-yard runs, but isn’t a burner.
Scheme
Steve Sarkisian has done an awesome job calling plays for them the last two years. Everything he does is about getting favorable matchups. They run a lot of RPOs and play-action. They are more of a pass-heavy team.
Alabama averages 53.08% run (66th), which is notable because they have blown out teams. They have the 8th most rushing attempts in the 4th quarter and are running clock to close out games.
They are 44.1% pass on 1st down and that really helps them set up the play-action passing game. 47.4% of their throws come off of play-action.
When I’m talking about matchups, think about Harris being moved out wide and forcing corners to tackle him or lining up Smith all over the field. He’s in the slot 36.9% of the time and has 39 of his 98 catches from there.
Notre Dame has to be careful to not let him get one on one with a safety or it’s pretty much an automatic six. I expect Notre Dame to attempt to bracket him on as many snaps as possible.
Key Players
QB Mac Jones - Great pocket movement. Great accuracy. Poised with his pressure in his face. Notre Dame needs to find a way to get him on the ground.
WR DeVonta Smith - 1,511 yards. A dynamic deep threat and after the catch.
WR John Metchie - 16 receptions of 20-yards or more, which is tied for 11th in the country. He’s going to get a lot of single coverage in this game and he’s a tough matchup.
RB Najee Harris - 10th in the country in yards from scrimmage so he’s more than just a power back.
Key Matchup for Notre Dame
Covering Smith - The Irish defense has to play disciplined all day with extra attention on Smith while not having other breakdowns, but they can’t allow Smith to beat them against favorable one on one matchups. He has 11 touchdowns against single coverage this season.
They don’t have any player who will shadow him all day long so it will have to be a team effort.
Defense
They are 23rd in FEI, 7th in SP+, and tied for 21st in YPP (5.03). It’s been a good defense, but not one that has as many dominant defenders up front.
Alabama has played much better in the second half of the season compared to the first part, though. There have many young players who have ascended in recent weeks.
Expected strengths
It’s no shock that they have elite athletes at all three levels of the defense. The run defense has been exceptional as of late. They are giving up 3.17 yards per carry on the year and no one has run for more than 120 yards on them in the last six games. LSU is the only team in that span to break 3.0 yards per carry.
They simply have athletes that allow them to close lanes quickly against the run. DL Phidarian Mathis is a strong player at the point of attack. LB Dylan Moses is a sideline to sideline athlete. He’s fast and violent. LB Christian Harris has emerged in his second season. Unsurprisingly they are strong up the middle.
The pass rush isn’t great overall, but they do have a couple of players who can disrupt on any down. DL Christian Barmore has an 18.8% pressure rate. He’s an elite interior rusher who can push the pocket. Edge Will Anderson is beyond his years a true freshman. He’s on his way to becoming one of the best pass rushers in the country if he’s not there already.
He’s tied for the most pressures in the country. Their top three corners are as good as any group on any team.
CB Patrick Surtain is elite in press coverage. He matches up really well with big receivers. I expect him to line up opposite of Javon McKinley for most of the day. CB Josh Jobe had more forced incompletions than first downs against him this season so the other side isn’t an area where Notre Dame can pick on. Freshman Malachi Moore has been great in the nickel for them.
S Jordan Battle has improved tremendously over the last half of the season. Safety has been a trouble spot for them, but he’s playing really well over the last month.
They are one of the best in the country at forcing turnovers (21) and they’re 23rd in Havoc Rate.
They really tighten up when teams get into the red zone as well. Alabama is 13th in the country in red zone touchdown percentage.
Potential Weaknesses
The big play has been an issue for them in pass coverage. Ole Miss and Florida shredded them (13.1 and 10.2 YPA). They gave up 32 receptions of 20-yards or more during the regular season so explosives plays will be on the table.
It often comes down to breakdowns with their safety play. They are younger there and have had some busts. It’s almost shocking to see them 72nd in 3rd down defense. They had been much better there until they faced Florida. The Gators were close to automatic converting.
Though Barmore can change the game as a pass rusher, he plays high with pad level and will lose ground against double teams. He might be a player they can run at. Moses is a lot like Jaylon Smith with the ground he covers, but he can bite hard on fakes and his athletic ability doesn’t always allow him to cover up for it.
Notre Dame will need to test his reads and the reads of the safeties as much as possible.
Scheme
Pete Golding is their defensive coordinator, but it’s always Nick Saban’s defense. He has run a hybrid one for a while. 3-4 might be the base, but they are multiple with their fronts. They play a lot of match coverage on the back end, which makes sense with the breakdowns with the safeties.
They do have the athletes to match straight up with Notre Dame so I do wonder if they’ll play more man to man in this game than they typically do.
They might be a little more old school in this matchup with the way Notre Dame plays most of the game in 12 personnel so we might see more of that traditional 30 front than normal. That would be the way Saban probably prefers to play it.
Key Players
DT Christian Barmore - 12.5 Havoc plays and handful for any guard.
LB Dylan Moses - A notch below a Roquan Smith type, but still a great player.
CB Patrick Surtain - Highest graded CB according to PFF. A former 5-star recruit who has been as good as advertised.
CB Malachi Moore - The true freshman was the highest graded slot corner in college football according to PFF. He leads their team in interceptions.
Edge Will Anderson - The true freshman has started every game this season and has taken off in recent weeks. He has seven sacks on the year and all have come in the last four games.
Key Matchup for Notre Dame
McKinley and Michael Mayer winning one on one - Notre Dame can talk about ball control, but that’s a lot easier said than done. They’ll need their best players to win matchups in the passing game in addition to possessing the ball as much as possible.
In the games Alabama has struggled on defense, they’ve had the opposition’s best skill guys go off. TE Kyle Pitts had 7 for 129 and WR Kadarius Toney had 8 for 153 for Florida. TE Kenny Yeobah had 7 for 181 and WR Elijah Moore had 11 for 143 for Ole Miss.
McKinley has had stretches this season where he has played like a true WR1, including the first Clemson game (5 for 102). Mayer has been fantastic in his first season, but Notre Dame will need to feature him even more.
Notre Dame needs to give these two the Claypool and Kmet treatment. 10 targets each should be a reasonable expectation.
Special Teams
They aren’t going to lose a game on special teams.
K Will Reichard is 12 of 12 with a long of 52 this season. Smith has taken a punt back to the house and they have some other capable returners. They’ve only had four punts returned against them all season. P Charlie Scott hasn’t boomed a lot of them, but with this team, they don’t need him to.
In big games, Saban hasn’t been shy about running fakes or onside kicks. Notre Dame might have to try and pull off one or two and hope they can catch them.