The Back Corner Fade

December 14th, 2016

Last week, we took a look at the undercard of the bowl season. This time around, we’re going to get into deep thoughts about the Big Boy games and what to look for. I’ll also give my fearless predictions that you can run to the back room of your local, shady pool hall, meet up with some guy named “Monty” and drop some serious cabbage that your great-aunt Edith gave you (along with a 6-pack of Gold Toe socks) for Christmas. You’re welcome in advance.

Here ya go, lads…..

Citrus Bowl: Louisville vs LSU: This has all the potential to be a great game. Lamar Jackson, the Heisman Trophy winner (and new pal of Johnny Manzeil,) vs a very athletic LSU defense. As I’ve mentioned before, I’m elated that Coach O got that gig. I have a funny feeling he’s going to give material for Back Corner Fade’s for years to come. He also is a pretty damn good defensive football coach and he’ll have something in mind for Jackson and the boys. The biggest question is can LSU score enough to beat them. Yes, even without Leonard Fournette, they’ll be able to run the ball, but Danny Etling is, well, just awful. Because of that, I gotta take the Birds. Louisville by 4.

TaxSlayer Bowl: Kentucky vs. Georgia Tech: This use to be the Gator Bowl, a game that usually had interesting match-up’s early in the day on New Year’s and was great to watch as you were coming out of the comatose from what was the night before. I’m glad that they switched the name to the TaxSlayer Bowl. The old name of Gator Bowl doesn’t deserve a couple of tomato cans like this. UK by 6 

Cotton Bowl: WMU vs Wisconsin: Over/under on how many times PJ Fleck’s “enthusiasm” is mentioned: 25. That being said, it’s a helluva story that WMU is undefeated and playing in a New Year’s Day “Oh, so close” bowl game. I believe that they’ll be prepared, they’ll play well, and be in this game well into the second half. I also believe that in the end, Wisconsin is going to physically beat the hell out of them. As good as WMU has been this year, like any other MAC team, the issue is depth. For them to have any chance, they better be up a few scores in the second half. Out of all the teams they could have drawn, this might be the worst one simply because of how physical Wisconsin is. Wisconsin by 13.

Outback Bowl: Iowa vs Florida: This scorcher will be on my set for 3 minutes at a time. The time? That would be when WMU and Wisconsin are in a commercial break as they play at the same time. Iowa beat Michigan this year (and we all thank you for that,) they also are a very average, boring football team. Florida has a decent defense, but they also have an offense as sophisticated as a Pop Warner team led by former Purdue QB, Austin Appleby ( which begs the question, since when did the SEC become the Isle of Misfit Boiler Quarterbacks?) First one to 20 wins. Florida by 2.

Rose Bowl: Penn St. vs USC: Ok, show of hands that you thought Penn State would win the Big 10 and be in the Rose Bowl at the start of the season? Yeah, I didn’t either. Good for them, I guess. I’m going to echo what Jamie mentioned in one of his articles last week: The Big 10 simply isn’t that good. I’m sure we’ll hear all about how this team has helped “the healing” in State College. Ok, whatever. Heal all you want. USC played some fantastic football the second half of the season, and I fully expect them to expose the Nitts and the mediocrity of the Big Ten. USC by 17

Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs Oklahoma: Have a little offense to go with that reheated pork and sauerkraut why don’t you. This has all the ear markings of some explosive offensive football and wouldn’t be surprised to see this one to end with a combined score in the 60’s or higher. While this isn’t a vintage Gus Malzahn offense, they can still put points on the board and to beat OU, they’re going to have to do just that: score a boat load of points. Since starting 1-2, OU has averaged almost 48 points a contest. Granted, I realize that’s in the CFL South, but that’s still turning some serious numbers. Let’s also face some reality: the SEC (minus Alabama) was simply average this year. This is an average Auburn team playing in a game, at 8-4, that they simply shouldn’t be in. I fully expect Big Game Bob and Co. to roll in this one. Oklahoma by 21.

Peach Bowl: Alabama vs Washington: I really like this Washington team. They’re so solid in all aspects of the game. Great QB, two very good backs, great receivers, and a nasty, nasty defensive front. They’re well coached and very deserving of being in this game. Even with how talented a team they are, can you really pick against Alabama in a situation like this? Heck, in the SEC Championship Game where they looked awful on offense, they still won by 38 points. I heard a stat about Alabama’s defense that simply blew my mind: Going into the SEC title game, the defense had scored as many touchdown’s as they’d given up this season. Excuse me?!?! While I believe Washington will play well and be in this game in into the second half, Bama will simply be Bama and find a way to pull away in the end. Alabama by 15.

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio St vs Clemson: Being an ND fan in Ohio, you can probably guess who I want to win this game, and frankly, I believe Clemson will win. OSU is loaded, no question, especially on the defensive side of the ball but they also have an issue: J.T Barrett has not been good this season. If you watch him play, he locks on to one receiver and if he’s not open, he’s in trouble. He’s a good runner, but he’s not Lamar Jackson, Greg Ward, DeShaun Watson good. He also hasn’t faced a defense this good or as fast either this season. Because of these issues, I think OSU is going to struggle to score points. Greg Schiano’s defense will keep them in the game, but I just can’t see them having enough offense to get over. . . .thank God. Clemson by 10.

I’m sure many of you are feeling like me as bowl season begins: anger. With the talent that ND had this past season, the reality that the boys are going to be home for the holidays is a very bitter pill to swallow. While I didn’t think this was a “New Year’s Day” team going into the season, I also never could imagine it not being bowl eligible. What’s even more mind numbing is that 3 of the 8 loses were to teams that also weren’t bowl worthy with only one of them is playing on New Year’s Day (USC.) This is inexcusable. No point going into what needs to be done this offseason. I think Mike, his fine staff, and so many of you knowledgeable fans and alumni have covered it. Brian Kelly is going to be back for better or worse. My guess (and hope) is that he’s on double-secret probation, ala Les Miles this past season. Here’s the real rub: I don’t want the guy to fail. I want to see him get this thing back in order. If he does, it means ND is winning a lot of football games and we’re not the punch-line of jokes from the media, our ND hating buddies, and family members that you grimace when you see them at Christmas dinner because you know a ball-breaking is coming. The hope now is that the staff can salvage and add to this recruiting class (which it appears is going well so far,) get stronger in the weight room, and regroup in spring ball. Is that too much to ask?