How Much Has Returning Production Mattered to Notre Dame?
Four straight seasons of 10 wins or more and two playoff appearances is the best sustained run of success for Notre Dame since the peak of the Lou Holtz era. If Brian Kelly’s program is to keep it rolling, they’ll need to overcome some significant losses from the roster.
The 2016 recruiting class, the best in the last decade for the Irish, is all out of eligibility. Nine ND players selected in the NFL Draft is the most since 1994. They lose several impact starters on both sides of the ball and, more importantly, they are losing most of the production that helped them get to the College Football Playoff in 2020.
ESPN”s Bill Connelly tracks returning production, a more accurate way of seeing what a program is losing compared to returning starters, and Notre Dame is near the bottom in the nation according to Connelly’s formula. They are 123rd in returning production on offense and 108th on defense. 123rd overall.
At the very least, 2021 is about reloading because of the personnel losses. How much will losing that production mean for Notre Dame can’t truly be quantified at the moment, but it should be noted that it meant a lot for LSU and Michigan last season.
LSU (127th) and Michigan (125th) both regressed sharply from the previous year. LSU went from the best offense in recent memory and 1st in FEI to 94th on offense. Michigan’s defense dropped off of a cliff going from 14th in FEI to 115th.
Those are nightmare worst case scenarios and a lot of that has to do with more serious issues within both programs. There is definitely more stability with Notre Dame and though they are losing Clark Lea at defensive coordinator, they replaced him with Marcus Freeman, who arrives with a great track record of success at Cincinnati.
Is there anything we can learn about regression from Notre Dame not having a lot of returning production in previous seasons? After looking at where the Irish stood in that department heading into each of the last four seasons, I believe the answer is yes.
2017
86th overall in returning production. 83rd on offense, 96th on defense.
Anyone who understands the program realizes this offseason was about much more than not having a ton of production coming back. There was a full-on reboot of the program and despite not having significant production returning on either side of the ball, they improved from 54th to 11th on defense in FEI. They shot up from 44th to 13th on offense.
2018
20th overall. 98th on offense, 1st on defense.
They dropped to 29th on offense and slid slightly 16th on defense (all rankings are FEI). Losing two top-10 picks from the O-line and having serious quarterback issues to start the season equaled that drop, but the offense remained above average even with that.
This is also where we start to see a trend of players who had either little or no production from the previous season become significant factors. Miles Boykin’s produdction mostly came from the Citrus Bowl against LSU in 2017. He was a legitimate number one wide receiver in ‘18.
Dexter Williams also made the leap and matched Josh Adams’ per game production after coming back from a suspension.
The difference between 16th and 11th isn’t very much, but it is interesting that they didn’t make the leap. It was Lea’s first year as a coordinator, though.
2019
97th overall. 86th on offense and 95th on defense.
They moved up a smidge to 25th on offense and all the way up to 5th on defense. The defense really stands out. 95th with what was returning and still managed to be better. That says a lot about the talent and depth being developed as well as the job done by the staff.
This year massive leap in production came on the defensive side of the ball. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah went from zero tackles in his career to being a Havoc machine. Drew White and Jamir Jones had a combined one Havoc play heading into ‘19 and finished with a combined 20.5.
Those are three players who didn’t do much of anything before that season and they helped Notre Dame’s defense maintain the standard of playing at a very high level.
2020
83rd overall. 64th on offense and 102nd on defense.
They dropped to 24th on defense and moved up to 17th on offense. They essentially lost all four starters in the secondary and two NFL draft picks at defensive end so going down 19 spots on defense wasn’t at all surprising.
The improvement on offense, even with several unknowns at receiver, had a lot to do with new coordinator Tommy Rees leaning in by using his best personnel. Those unknowns ended up producing too.
Who would have predicted that true freshman Michael Mayer would have one less reception than Cole Kmet had from the pevious season or that Kyren Williams would go from redshirting to finishing top-10 in the country in rushing yards? I know there was no one who thought that Javon McKinley would go from 11 career receptions to leading the team in receiving.
Say it again: recruiting and development.
Should a drop on offense and defense be expected in 2021?
Health on offense and development on defense might be able to change that.
Kevin Austin, Lawrence Keys, and Braden Lenzy had very little production for Notre Dame last season due to injuries and project to be key pieces of the current offense. If healthy, it would be surprising if that group, combined with Avery Davis and an ascending Michael Mayer, didn’t surpass what the offense lost with Ben Skowronek and Javon McKinley.
The key will be at quarterback to see how Ian Book will be replaced. This is less so about his passing and more about his ability to run.
The Irish certainly lost some talent on defense, specifically in the front seven with Daelin Hayes, Ade Ogundeji, and Butkus Award winner Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. A deeper defensive line and third year linebackers ready to make the leap could certainly make up for those losses. Marist Liufau and Jack Kiser are prime candidates to go from very little production to playmakers in 2021. Jordan Botelho was a terror on special teams in 2020, but is someone to watch to replace what was lost at end.
If the young corners build on how they performed in the spring, then a move back to the top-10 on defense isn’t off the table.
Clemson was 104th in returning production on defense last year. They finished 1st in FEI. Being the top defense in the nation is probably too ambitious, but being like Clemson and not experiencing a drop off is what I would expect from Notre Dame on that side of the ball.
They have been able to stay as a top-25 defense for four straight years because of coaching, recruiting, and development and I see that continuing.
Alabama is 126th in returning production on offense in 2021. They finished 1st in FEI in ‘20 and there probably will be a regression with a new coordinator, new quarterback, and so much more to replace including the Heisman trophy winner. However, they will still be elite on offense because we know the talent is going to be as good as any team in the country.
That’s where those programs are and we know that Notre Dame isn’t quite at that same level, but they have been able to maintain strong play on both sides of the ball even after losing significant production in recent years. And it’s all because they’ve continued to recruit well and have developed even better.