6 Thoughts on a Thursday
It was supposed to be a triumphant week for Jack Coan. A win over his former team and it being clear that Wisconsin bet on the wrong horse at quarterback should have been reason to celebrate.
An injury that forced him out of the game and left his status for this week uncertain had to have put a damper on things. Oh, there’s also the fact that he didn’t exactly light the world on fire against that former team and the backup who replaced him was better.
My assumption with Coan, mostly based on the fact that he reluctantly joined Instagram this summer, tells me he is probably pretty good at blocking out the outside noise. I hope so because there has been plenty of noise since last Saturday in regards to his recent play and his job status.
If he’s healthy, I’m certain he will be the starting quarterback this weekend. Whether or not he’ll keep the job this entire season is at least up for debate.
Fair or unfair, it’s inarguable that his performance has declined since the first game of the season. He was very good against Florida State. 10.5 yards per attempt and four touchdowns is good against any opponent. He completed 74.3% of his passes. They might not be a great defense, but his numbers were better than any other quarterback the Seminoles have gone up against so far.
He’s at 55% completions and 6.4 YPA in the three games since. The Wisconsin game was his worst one statistically. He only had 5.4 YPA and completed 51.7% of his throws.
Those are real numbers, but there’s clearly more to it than just that. There were some key drops against Purdue by his receivers and Wisconsin’s defense did pretty much the exact same thing against Penn State’s Sean Clifford, who has been lights out since then. Then there’s the offensive line issues and the fact that despite having two very talented backs, the offense can’t run the football.
The entire weight of the offense has been on Coan’s shoulders and that’s a lot to have to carry.
All of that should be acknowledged. And yet, the lack of success since FSU can’t be ignored.
On the first 11 drives with Coan at quarterback, the offense scored 38 points (3.5 points per drive). On the next 38 drives on offense, they’ve scored 57 points with Coan as the primary quarterback. That’s 1.5 points per drive and would put them around 94th in the country. (That’s worthy of a “How it started, How it’s going” meme) 14 of those 38 drives ended in either a 3-and-out or a turnover (36.8%).
To put it bluntly, that rate of failure on drives is unsustainable if Notre Dame wants to remain anywhere close to undefeated.
The question then moves to, should he be replaced as the starter? The fans certainly seem to be leaning towards yes. That’s primarily because they have seen the other two quarterbacks play and succeed while helpong the Irish win games when Coan wasn’t able to help the offense score points. In only eight drives where Tyler Buchner or Drew Pyne were the primary quarterback, the offense put up 24 points (3.0 per drive).
To many, that’s enough to say a change has to happen. That sample size is so tiny, though, and it’s also going up against the fact that not only did Coan clearly win the job based on his work in the spring and the summer, but he also lit up the first game and showed that the offense could do some serious damage with him running it.
Coan might not be healthy enough to start this game and then everyone will get to see Pyne and Buchner play. It will be against a great Cincinnati defense as well so it’s not going to be an easy test for either player to pass.
Whoever starts at quarterback for Notre Dame, they need to be more successful than 1.5 points per drive. They can and have to be better than that.
2. No quarterback can expect to be that much better if the offensive line doesn’t improve. With having to play four players at the left tackle position, it’s understandable that a call for patience with this group is necessary.
The problem is that they don’t have time to be patient. They’re in the endgame now with them in the middle of the heart of their schedule.
The other issue is that this is much more than just a left tackle problem. They haven’t been close to good enough across the board with Jarrett Patterson being the lone exception.
Notre Dame can’t run the ball with a backfield that rivals just about every program in the country. These numbers are frighteningly bad (hat tip to my man Michael Bryan for these)
They are facing another defense on Saturday that produces a ton of havoc so even if they make progress and improve, it might be difficult for it to be noticeable.
If I’m Cincinnati, I’d play nickel for the majority of the game because even when Notre Dame plays with 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends), they are unable to bully a defense like they did last season. The line isn’t anywhere close to being able to do that and until that happens, I don’t see many defenses having to match up with bodies inside when they keep winning one on one battles against the Irish offensive line.
We’ve discussed how Notre Dame has got there with the current personnel and it’s pretty clear that this is who they have and they have to simply be better with this group. It’s certainly not an easy job for Jeff Quinn, but he has to find answers because we’re ⅓ into the regular season and they are currently at the level people that FSU has been at with their line in recent years.
3. I’ll reiterate that one guy isn’t going to fix everything so even if Blake Fisher was miraculously back after the bye week, which isn’t a realistic timeline at all, he’s not going to suddenly make the line go from bad to even average. There’s more to it than that.
I write that while also acknowledging how much of a difference it could have made if Notre Dame had signed Nicholas Petit-Frere in the 2018 class.
Zero sacks given up at left tackle. That would help.
The Irish didn’t really have a great chance to land NPF with Quinn being hired late and Harry Hiestand being checked out for the majority of that recruiting cycle, but NPF is a perfect example how sometimes that one recruiting target can be that important.
4. As Bill Belichick would say, on to Cincinnati…
It was encouraging that Kevin Austin had a bounce back game and one thing that stood out to me was that his two touchdowns came when he was not lined up to the boundary. The deep ball was to the field and the slant was out of the slot.
That might be some foreshadowing for this week because Ahmad Gardner plays the boundary for the Bearcats and no one has had success throwing his direction this season. I don’t know if it will be like what Notre Dame did against Alabama’s Patrick Surtain last season, but my guess is that they won’t be challenging Gardner all that much on Saturday.
I think we’ll see Austin move around plenty of this game and Tommy Rees will attempt to get him the ball in more favorable matchups.
5. Way back in May of this year I wrote about Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder and his play against top-40 defenses. Spoiler alert in case you don’t remember: he hasn’t been very good.
Over the last two years he’s faced Georgia (12th in FEI), (Tulsa 9th), Ohio State (2nd in 2019), Central Florida (27th in 2019), and Temple (38th in 2019). His combined yards per attempt in those games was 5.99.
He’s a dual-threat, but he didn’t exactly shine as a runner in those games either. The Tulsa game was the only one where he had over 200 yards of total offense and that’s not going to get it done if they are going to upset the Irish.
Against Georgia last season, against a defense that had three starters opt out of playing, he finished with 189 total yards and threw for 5.6 yards per attempt.
Last week against Indiana he threw for 5.8 YPA and completed 55% of his throws.
Ridder has yet to play great against a good defense. Notre Dame is ranked 12th on defense in F+ (combined SP+ and FEI rankings). It would be a surprise if he played well in this game and I think they need him to be.
6. As uncertain as I might be about Notre Dame’s offense at the moment, I’m feeling pretty confident in the Irish defense at the moment. I think we’re only going to see them get better as this season rolls along and that should give fans hope that the offense has some time to figure things out while the defense sets the tone.
The one thing I can’t stop thinking about with this group is how many players have stepped up to have significant contributions in individual games. On top of that, many of these players are starting for the first time in their careers and have plenty of room to grow during the rest of the season.
It must be fun for Marcus Freeman and the defensive coaching staff to wonder who the playmakers are going to be this week and not because they are searching for anyone to step up. It’s all because they keep having different defenders elevate their level of play.