6 Thoughts on a Thursday
74.3% completion percentage, 10.5 yards per attempt, and eight receptions of 20-yards or more is the kind of production any program would want out of their passing game. That’s what Jack Coan helped deliver in week one against Florida State and I don’t think there was a single Notre Dame fan who wasn’t excited about what he was going to do this season after that performance.
The excitement waned each week since then to the point where it was consensus that he needed to be replaced at quarterback. When the team failed to move the ball with him at the beginning of the Virginia Tech game, it was expected. When he was inserted back into the game after Tyler Buchner was injured, it’s doubtful that any fan believed he could pull out a win in that situation.
But he did and looked a lot like he did in that season opener against FSU. He finished those final drives completing 7 of 9 passes for 93-yards and touchdown.
There is still plenty of skepticism that Coan can keep that up, but regardless of how the masses feel, he’s the starter heading into USC according to Brian Kelly. As long as that’s the case, it’s up to Tommy Rees to try and help Coan be that player more consistently.
I think part of doing that is helping him with formations by spreading teams out and taking advantage of favorable matchups like they did in those two games. Another part feels almost too simple and has a lot to do with what Rees is calling as well as Coan’s decision-making: he needs to get the ball out quicker.
When Coan gets the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds, he’s averaging 8.5 YPA and completing 73.8% of his throws. He’s 22nd in the country in quarterback rating when that happens. (All of these numbers courtesy of PFF)
The issue is that, whether by play-design or Coan’s indecisiveness, the ball isn’t getting out that fast frequently. That’s only happening on 43% of his drop backs. That’s 107th in the country.
When he is holding onto the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, his completion percentage drops by 23.2% (50.6) and his YPA drops by a full two yards (6.5). His rank in passer rating on those throws is 98th.
There’s been plenty of times when holding onto the ball too long has been on Coan. It’s generous to say his pocket awareness has been questionable and he can be better pre and post snap as well. That is all fair criticism of his play.
On the other side of things is Rees and he has to be aware of how much better Coan has been when getting the ball out faster and must call more plays with this in mind. Combine that with some of the protection issues they’ve had this season and it only makes sense that there needs to be more of an adjustment when it comes to quick game passing concepts.
If Coan is going to be behind center for Notre Dame, he’s going to need help in order to be the player he’s looked like during his best moments. Some of that has to come from himself and some of that help can be provided by his coordinator.
2. Maybe I just wasted a bunch of time researching and writing that. Coan could come out against SC with a couple of three-and-out drives and then never start a game again. That’s how unpredictable the quarterback situation is currently for Notre Dame.
Let’s just say that Coan does play his best and remains the starter the rest of the season. I don’t think that means Tyler Buchner shouldn’t continue to have an expanded role because he brings something to the table that the offense needs.
They run the ball significantly better when he is in the game and his running is a massive piece of that equation. That’s going to be important during this stretch to finish the season because the run defense has been bad for five of their last six opponents. Georgia Tech has been average, but the rest have issues stopping the run.
USC is 96th in average line yards and 114th in stuff rate. North Carolina is 79th in ALY and 102nd in stuff rate. Navy is 68th and 101st, Virginia is 98th and 80th, and Stanford is 115th and 116th.
The opportunities are going to be there to run the football against these teams and until proven otherwise, no one should have faith that they can take advantage of that with Coan at quarterback even with a reconfigured offensive line.
We’ve seen enough to have faith with Buchner running the offense to believe they can run it pretty well, especially against these defenses. As I wrote about earlier in the week, sprinkling in more play-action with Buchner would help them be less one-dimensional with him in the game too and I think that is another area where the Irish can be much more productive.
3. One of the things that Brian Kelly had to deal with that his predecessors didn’t was the fact that Stanford and Navy were stronger than they had been in decades. Under David Shaw and Ken Niumatalolo, the games against those programs weren’t easy wins like they had been in the past.
Shaw and Niumatololo had been praised for their ability to sustain success at places that hadn’t been able to consistently do so. That’s why it feels so strange to see both Stanford and Navy struggle to the point where for the first time ever, both could at least be mentioned as being on the hot seat next year.
Niumatalolo is now 4-12 in his last 16 games. He was 11-2 in 2019, but his team was 3-10 the year before that. I don’t think he’ll be fired if they win 3 games again this season, they’re currently 1-5, but things have clearly declined. They haven’t been this bad since Paul Johnson’s first season in 2002.
Shaw had a heck of a run while building on what Jim Harbaugh accomplished on The Farm. He won 11 or more games in four of his first five seasons. But there is no debate that they’ve declined recently. They’re 11-14 in their last 25 games.
They were physical and had strong running games and played great defense for a long time. Now they can’t run the ball and can’t stop the run. They are who they used to be.
Niumatalolo has been the head coach at Navy since 2007. Shaw has been the head coach at Stanford since 2011. I don’t know how much longer Kelly is going to coach at Notre Dame, but when he leaves it is likely going to be his decision. It’s not trending that way for those other two.
4. Marcus Freeman and Clark Lea are always going to be compared. It was the same for Bob Diaco and Brian VanGorder. It happens everywhere whenever a coordinator is replaced.
There’s this idea that Freeman has more of an attacking scheme and that Lea was more bend, but don’t break. Through six games, that hasn’t exactly been the case.
Lea blitzed 32% of the time last season and Freeman has brought pressure against quarterbacks 26.9% of the time. I think Freeman would probably like to blitz a bit more often, but he also knows he can’t play cover 1 as much as he’d like to with this personnel.
In regards to the bend, but don’t break approach, that’s a bit of what we’ve seen from Freeman’s defense in the first half of 2021. They are 11th in red zone touchdown efficiency giving up touchdowns on only 41.67% of red zone trips for the opposition. That’s better than any of Lea’s defenses at Notre Dame (their best finish was 23rd last year at 53.33%).
If we’re looking at points per drive, Lea’s defenses in 2018 and 2019 finished 8th and 6th in the country at 1.4 and 1.34 PPD respectively. His 2020 defense was 27th at 1.73 PPD. Freeman’s defense through six games is ranked 22nd at 1.62 PPD.
This stuff can all change so much with Notre Dame playing three strong offenses the rest of the way. UNC is 10th in F+, Virginia is 13th, and USC is 25th. Outside of Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, those teams have the three best quarterbacks the Irish will have faced this fall.
I’m excited to dive into the comparisons after this season is over, even while knowing that comparing Freeman to Lea isn’t exactly apples to apples due to Lea inheriting an experienced defense in 2018 and Freeman inheriting one that had to replace six starters.
5. The offense clearly needs to make a lot more improvements than the defense in the second half of the season. As Kelly mentioned during his press conference earlier in the week, the things they worked on defensively during the bye week were less about scheme and more specifics like fine-tuning coverage.
Little things can make a big difference and we’ll see if the defense can improve on some of those little things that they needed to work on, but I’m also curious to see if more players can emerge in the second half of the year.
Cam Hart had a breakthrough first six games, but can he find that consistency to be great every game? The potential is there for him to be even better and he’ll certainly be tested by better passing offenses.
The next piece are the linebackers making more plays. There was going to be a big hole that needed to be filled after losing Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (18 Havoc plays in 2020) and maybe it was always going to be by committee, but it didn’t help losing Marist Liufau. It’s a safe bet that he would have produced Havoc plays somewhere in the double digits.
With no Liufau, the linebackers have combined for 15 through six games. They had a combined 48 last season so they’re on pace to have a giant JOK sized hole with their Havoc right now.
More from the collective group would help, but if one guy can emerge as a playmaker that would help a lot. Who that guy will be, I’m not sure based on what I’ve seen so far. I do like the way Jack Kiser has played at Rover even if he hasn’t made the splash plays.
6. I think Notre Dame is better than USC and Kelly is very likely going to walk out of the stadium with an 8-3 record against their biggest rival on Saturday night. What that might mean for the rest of the season really depends on how Notre Dame wins.
It would say a lot about how the second half of the season might look for the Irish if they dropped 40 on the Trojans. That’s not something we have seen from Notre Dame this season other than an overtime game against Florida State. (They scored over 40 against Wisconsin, but that was greatly aided by two pick-sixes and Chris Tyree’s kick return touchdown).
To me, scoring 40 would say that the progress we saw against Virginia Tech wasn’t a smoke screen. USC has given up 40 in each of their three losses and outside of Oregon State, they haven’t played any good offenses.
I’m not ready to call Notre Dame’s offense good even if they do put 40 on the board against what has been a bad USC defense, but it’s what a good offense should do. That would be a big step in the right direction and a sign that they are capable of putting up points each week the rest of the way.