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Notre Dame Football

6 Thoughts on a Thursday

November 11, 2021
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Notre Dame fans had their issues with Chip Long as an offensive coordinator. There was also a lot more than just his play-calling that led to him no longer being at Notre Dame after the 2019 season.

One thing that everyone would have to acknowledge is that he improved the red zone production drastically in his three years as a coordinator. They ranked in the top-10 in red zone touchdown percentage in two of his three seasons calling plays. The Irish have only ranked in the top-30 once in any other season under Brian Kelly.

They’ve been average in most seasons at getting seven rather than three and they are again this season. They currently rank 71st in touchdown percentage when they reach the red zone. Even last season, Tommy Rees' first as offensive coordinator, they finished 84th in that statistic. It didn’t matter that they had one of the top offensive lines in the country or that Kyren Williams was great at making tacklers miss. They weren’t able to consistently put the ball into the end zone enough and that has carried over.

Well, it has and it hasn’t. They might only be scoring touchdowns on 59.4% of red zone trips in total, but the numbers have been much better when Tyler Buchner is involved in that area of the field.

When he’s been inserted into the game or he has run the offense on drives that have reached the red zone, Notre Dame has scored touchdowns on nine of 11 tries (81.8%). They have scored touchdowns on 10 of 20 (50%) on every other red zone opportunity. (Note: I took out the final red zone trip against North Carolina as Notre Dame chose to take a knee rather than score in that situation.)

The simple way to look at it is that Buchner is a mobile quarterback and Jack Coan is not. Buchner forces teams to defend more options and that opens up more possibilities for the offense. If it was that easy, though, then why would the offense have regressed in the red zone in 2020 with Ian Book returning at quarterback? There’s much more that goes into it including play calls and personnel that end up impacting what happens, which Kelly mentioned in his press conference earlier this week.

It’s impossible to argue against the success of Buchner when they get scoring opportunities compared to when he is not in the game. That’s really what matters most in this context. They score touchdowns with him and struggle to do so when he’s not in there.

They’re about to play a Virginia team with one of the top offenses in the country and will need to put up as many points as possible to get the win. So if it’s a tight game and you’re screaming at your television to put in Buchner when Notre Dame enters the red zone, you’d be justified in doing so.

The numbers say he should be in the game more if they want a better chance at scoring touchdowns down there.

2. If Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong plays against Notre Dame, he’s going to get his yards. He’s only had one game this season where he has thrown for less than 337. Any ideas of holding their passing game down to a low total should be disregarded.

With the receivers they have, it feels inevitable that they will make plays. The key will be to keep them out of the end zone.

There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Notre Dame’s defensive backs, but eyes are going to be on starting corners Clarence Lewis and Cam Hart in particular. Both have had stretches of strong play, but both fit into the unproven category more than anything else.

Lewis gave up a couple of big plays against Cincinnati and has had issues with double moves this season. Hart had a three game stretch where he gave up one completion on 16 targets, but he’s allowed completions on eight of his nine targets and has missed some tackles.

There’s a chance that these two could be starting opposite of each other at corner for the next couple of seasons, but I wouldn’t say anyone feels confident about these two matching up when the Irish play Ohio State to kickoff next year.

Notre Dame needs better play from both of them. They’ll be tested in this game and we’ll see how they handle all of the deep shots Virginia takes. They throw it deep a combined six times a game to Dontayvion Wicks (23.7 yards per catch) and Ra’Shaun Henry (17.3).

3. I’m certainly intrigued by Xavier Watts as an athlete and like what I’ve seen from him covering kicks and tackling downhill in garbage time against Navy. But intrigued is one thing. People being hopeful he gets some opportunities this season says more about the safety situation minus Kyle Hamilton than it does about Watts.

He has played exactly two snaps in coverage and they both came against Navy.

I think he’ll be someone to watch as a potential starter next year, though. I was high on Watts as a prospect and thought he could be a significant contributor on either side of the ball. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s in the mix to start at safety next season.

4. I’ve written about Notre Dame playing all of the toughest defenses they’re going to face in the regular season in the first half of the year and now they’re playing all of the weakest ones. It’s the opposite on the other side of the ball where they played plenty of average to below average offenses, but have faced more difficult challenges on defense with USC, North Carolina, and now Virginia.

Strangely, the Cavaliers have also played an extremely unbalanced schedule when it comes to who they have played on defense. All eight of the FBS defenses they’ve gone up against have been bad. Miami (82nd in EPA per play), Wake Forest (104th), North Carolina (106th), BYU (105th), Duke (114th), Louisville (80th), Georgia Tech (72nd), and Illinois (77th) might the be the worst collection of defenses any Power 5 offense has faced in 2021.

They’re about to play Notre Dame (18th) and Pitt (23rd). It’s probably going to be Notre Dame without Hamilton so that changes some things, but the Irish are definitely the best defense they will have gone against all season.

That part of this game should be talked about a bit more than it has. How many great offenses have to wait until their 10th game before they even play an above average defense?

5. Kelly mentioned that Lorenzo Styles Jr. will be working out of the slot now that Avery Davis is out for the season.

I have three words when thinking about that: throw the bubble.

I lied, I have two more words: slot fade.

Get this kid the football and let him cook.

6. I went from two weeks ago to thinking Notre Dame is a long shot at best to make the College Football Playoff to *shoulder shrug* I could see it happening.

There are so many teams in front of them that could lose that even if Notre Dame’s resumé looks just okay, they might still get in.

There hasn’t been a year like this in recent memory where a 12-team playoff made so much sense because there’s a clear lack of separation between almost every team ranked in the top-10 after Georgia.

Sure, Alabama is loaded with talent, but they lost to a backup quarterback versus Texas A&M and played tight games against Florida and LSU. Bama has rarely looked this beatable.

Oregon beat Ohio State, but lost to a terrible Stanford team and have looked uninspired against mediocre Pac-12 competition. I don’t think anyone would feel confident picking them to beat Utah in a Pac-12 Championship game.

Ohio State is like Alabama. They have elite talent, especially at the skill positions. However, they are playing Purdue, Michigan State, and Michigan in the next three weeks. It wouldn’t be a shock to see them drop one of those games and then they’re likely out.

Cincinnati has no tough tests remaining and has the Group of 5 stink on them. Michigan and Michigan State are going to be picked to both drop a game and then drop out of the conversation. Oklahoma’s conference has been bad and they’ve looked vulnerable. We know the Irish are flawed and Oklahoma State still has to play OU.

Nothing seems certain with those nine and while I wouldn’t feel great about picking Notre Dame to beat at least half of those teams, they don’t play any of them.

I don’t think the Irish are in any way close to being one of the best four teams in the country and as of right now I wouldn’t say they are one of the four most deserving either. None of that may matter if enough of those teams lose, which could very well happen to the majority of them.

 
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