ND Opponent Preview | NC State
It was business as usual for top tier programs after the NCAA granted an extra year of eligibility to every athlete who played during the shortened 2020 season. These teams have had a few players take advantage of the “bonus year”, but the rosters were still mostly composed of players who would have had eligibility anyway.
It’s been much different for programs who rely on players who weren’t top NFL Draft prospects. NC State is one example of a program who took full advantage of players being allowed an extra year. Their roster last season was loaded with fifth and sixth year players and it’s the same in 2023. They have nine projected starters who are utilizing their extra year and they are getting full use of their 85 scholarships.
This is a bit of a transition year for Dave Doeren’s team, though. They are losing several defenders who were highly productive and some important players on offense as well. Under defensive coordinator Tony Gibson, they finished 14th and 11th in DF+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking) in 2021 and 2022. It’s going to be difficult for them to continue to be a top-15 defense having to replace so many key pieces.
This would be a great time for their offense to carry more of the weight and perhaps that’s why they were thinking when Doeren decided to hire Robert Anae (previously at Syracuse and Virginia) and bring in former Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong. The thought seems to be that reuniting these two could produce the kind of results Virginia had in 2021 when Armstrong was considered one of the best quarterbacks in the ACC.
The problem is that this isn’t the same roster as the one Anae had to work with at Virginia. His assignment will be much more difficult this time around with less proven skill talent and some massive losses up front.
If Notre Dame was facing last year’s NC State in their first true road game of the season, this would have been considered one of the tougher match ups on the schedule. There’s a lot more unknown about this year’s NC State team and it shouldn’t be nearly as difficult. It’s probably the best thing that the Irish get to play them early in the season while they are still figuring things out.
Post-spring SP+ rankings
They are 43rd in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s post-spring SP+ rankings. They are 67th on offense and 21st on defense.
Key losses
QB Devin Leary was injured for a good chunk of last season so it might have felt like he was already gone, but he’s off to Kentucky to be their starter.
RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye also transferred to Kentucky. He’s a tackle breaker who struggled to stay healthy, but when he was on the field, he was very productive.
They lost three of their top-four receivers (112 catches) from last season. WR Devin Carter was their most explosive receiver and would have been a perfect fit with this new offense, but he transferred to West Virginia.
G Chandler Zavala was their best OL and he was taken in the fourth round by the Carolina Panthers and they also lost first team All-ACC center Grant Gibson.
LB Drake Thomas was first team All-ACC and LB Isaiah Moore made the second team. They combined for 193 tackles and 41 Havoc plays. S Cyrus Fagan (11.5 Havoc plays) and S Tanner Ingle (12) are also gone. That’s a lot of playmaking gone and they were all experienced players in Gibson’s system as well.
DT Cory Durden was an All-ACC level player for them the past two years and he’s out of eligibility. DT Joshua Harris has NFL potential and he transferred to Ole Miss. They do have some good players returning up front, but Harris would have helped soften the blow with Durden gone.
If Notre Dame suffered these kinds of losses in an offseason, Irish fans would be rightly freaking out.
Key additions
QB Brennan Armstrong will try to resurrect his NFL Draft stock with a new program and his old OC. He’s QB1 for them, but he had a tough time behind a shaky offensive line last at Virginia in 2022 and this O-line could struggle as well.
They were able to add G Dawson Jaramillo (Oregon) from the transfer portal. He is projected to start at guard. He didn’t start last season for the Ducks, though.
DB Robert Kennedy comes in as a grad transfer from Old Dominion. He’s expected to start at nickel and was a productive player in the secondary at ODU. He also played very well against Virginia Tech last season.
WR Dacari Collins from Clemson is a big body who has plenty of eligibility left. The former blue-chip recruit might be needed to help immediately given the uncertainty at receiver.
WR Kevin Concepcion is a true freshman who is expected to contribute this season. He made a bit of a splash in NC State’s spring game and could add some much needed speed to the vertical passing game.
K Brayden Narverson transferred from Western Kentucky. He was 15 of 21 last season with a long of 53.
Top returners and returning production
They are 98th in returning production (56%), 77th on offense and 104th on defense.
LB Payton Wilson and CB Aydan White are both back and are All-ACC level players. White had four interceptions and 17 total Havoc plays Wilson missed a couple of games, but still finished with 82 tackles and 16.5 total Havoc plays. If NC State is going to continue to be a top-15 defenses, these two will be a major reason why.
DL Davin Vann (10 Havoc plays) led the defensive linemen with 43 pressures and he’s their best player up front. He has game wrecker potential.
Injuries limited DE Savion Jackson last season, but he has the talent to play on Sundays. He’s very good against the run.
You might have noticed that I didn’t mention anyone on offense and it’s because they don’t have anyone on that side of the ball who is projected as an All-ACC level player and have no one who is considered a top NFL prospect.
One big question
Do they have the receivers to make the switch on offense successful?
The answer is no today and they do have some young players who could end up helping them a lot, but they wanted to add an impact receiver or two in the transfer portal and had no luck.
The big thing that made that Virginia offense hum in 2021 was Armstrong’s ability to throw the deep ball to multiple threats who could stretch the field. NC State has to find at least a couple of those on the roster if they want the good version of Armstrong.
Okay, let’s make it two big questions.
Can they replace all of the playmakers on defense?
It’s probably a no, which means they will take a step back this fall. Gibson’s 3-3-5 does the best when he had studs at linebacker and safety. They have Wilson, but everyone else there is relatively unproven.
How they’ve recruited
Normally we see teams who sign less high school recruits dip heavily into the portal, but they kept so many veterans to take advantage of the “bonus year” so they haven’t been adding a ton of recruits.
The blue-chip ratio for them in the last four classes is 16.9% and they’ve signed only 12 total. Only one of those players has left the program, though.
They also have four fifth year blue-chips and one sixth year blue-chip still on campus in addition to adding one in the portal.
They have 17 blue-chips on the roster, but that has never been what NC State has been about under Doeren. They have been able to identify and develop talent at a good level to keep them and that has helped them stay a winning program.
They also have a ceiling and will never be one of the best in the ACC because of that. Experience made up for some of that lack of raw talent in the last couple of years, but with less experience this fall, it’s fair to expect them to dip below that 8-9 win level they’ve been at the past three years.
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