Notre Dame Opponent Preview | Duke
I’m sure when Mike Elko left Notre Dame for a big pay day at Texas A&M, he thought he would be head coach sooner rather than later. He spent four years in College Station, though, before finally getting his opportunity to run his own program at Duke in 2022.
As far as debuts go, it couldn’t have gone much better.
They went from 3-9 to 9-4 and Elko won ACC Coach of the Year. Each one of their losses came in by one score as well.
They have a much tougher schedule this season than they did in ‘22. They open with Clemson and play Florida State as well as Notre Dame. That’s going to make it much more difficult for them to win nine games again.
However, just about everyone who produced on offense is back for a group that jumped from 112th to 43rd in OF+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking). They also jumped from 115th to 48th on defense and with Elko and defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci running things, they’re going to be solid there again.
Ohio State, USC, and Clemson are in their own tier on Notre Dame’s schedule this season. Duke, surprisingly, might be at or near the top of the next tier. A week after playing Ohio State, this won’t be an easy match up for the Irish.
Post-Spring SP+ Ranking
They are 55th overall. They’re 51st on offense and 61st on defense.
Key losses
They lost two starters up front on the offensive line and depth is a concern there. They tried to address it in the transfer portal, but a couple of the players they brought in for the spring didn’t win starting jobs and already decided to leave the program.
If they have injuries, they could be in big trouble.
Safety Darius Joiner was a graduate transfer for them last season and he had a fantastic season. He was one of the better safeties in the conference and might have been their best player. His 17 Havoc plays (tackles for loss, interceptions, pass breakups, and forced fumbles) will be missed.
LB Shaka Heyward was very good for them the last three years. He had 94 tackles and 14 Havoc plays in ‘22.
LB Rocky Shelton took advantage of the four game rule and transferred to Miami during the offseason. He’s really the only loss of note who transferred. They did a great job retaining their talent after a successful season.
Key additions
OL Jake Hornibrook from Stanford is projected to start at guard. He played left guard last season and is solid in the run game, but below average in pass protection.
They brought in CBs Myles Jones and Al Blades Jr. as transfer, who both have plenty of experience. Jones had 29 starts at Texas A&M and had 39 career Havoc plays in 49 games. Blades Jr. started 15 games at Miami and has four career interceptions, but none since 2020.
They played three corners for most of the season and have two returning who played over 600 snaps. With Jones and Blades added, defensive back is probably the strongest position on the team.
Top returners and returning production
They are 33rd in returning production, ninth on offense and 73rd on defense. Losing their top two tacklers, Heyward and Joiner, is the reason for that ranking.
QB Riley Leonard was a bit up and down as a passer, but he’s a dual-threat who finished with 699 yards rushing and just under 3000 yards passing. He’s in the upper half of quarterbacks in the ACC.
LT Graham Barton is one of the best returning left tackles in the country. He’s the one player on their roster who is considered a top NFL prospect.
WR Jalen Calhoun led the team in receiving with 62 catches for 873 yards. He’s a reliable target who played in the slot on 58.9% of passing snaps last fall. They had seven players who had 14 catches or more last season and they all return.
Their top-five rushers are back as well, led by Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore (6.4 YPC).
DT DeWayne Carter is one of the top interior defensive linemen in the ACC. He had 18 Havoc plays, which includes 11 tackles for loss. He finished with the second most pressures (52) out of any Power 5 defensive tackle.
Nickel back Brandon Johnson had 18.5 Havoc plays and he’s a very effective blitzer.
DE Vincent Anthony is a former 4-star recruit who played as a true freshman in ‘22 and is set to start this season. He’s a breakout candidate for them as well as CB Chandler Rivers, who started as a freshman and played beyond his years.
One big question
Can the defense stay this lucky?
Notre Dame fans know that Elko places a huge emphasis on creating turnovers and they relentlessly work at skills in practice to get better at it. It paid off for Duke last season with 17 forced fumbles and Duke was lucky enough to have their opponents fumble seven more times. They recovered 16 of them, which was first in the nation.
The ball doesn’t always bounce that way and the numbers say that recovering ⅔ of fumbles isn’t sustainable. Texas A&M definitely worked on the same stuff Duke did and they only recovered 17 of 52 (32.7%) during his four years there, including only four of 19 in 2018.
That good fortune was a big factor in boosting up their season and if they aren’t as lucky in 2023, they will probably have a tougher time hanging with more talented teams like Notre Dame.
How they’ve recruited
They signed one 4-star recruit from 2020-2023, the previously mentioned Anthony.
Elko is upgrading the recruiting and General Manager Derek Miller has done a very good job of adding smartly in the portal, but the key for them right now is retaining and developing talent. That’s a big check filling out that box in year one.
Their returning experience and a good coaching staff should make them a bowl team again this fall. They open the season with Clemson so we’ll see how just how much all of that will keep them competitive against teams with significantly more raw talent.
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