6 Thoughts on a Thursday
Notre Dame finished with 41 and 38 sacks respectively in the last two seasons. It’s the only time they ended up in the top-15 in that category in the past decade. Those numbers and having Isaiah Foskey and his 22 sacks would suggest that the Irish pass rush was better than ever.
Anyone who watched the games would disagree.
It’s not that Notre Dame’s pass rush was bad, but it wasn’t close to being elite like the sack numbers might suggest. They finished 50th and 38th in PFF’s pass rush grades the last two years, mostly because they didn’t have enough impactful pass rushers on the defensive line.
Even Foskey, who was terrific at getting passers on the ground, wasn’t consistently dominant in terms of getting pressure on the quarterback. His pass rush win percentage was 18.9 on true pass sets (TPS), 38th out of Power 5 edge defenders in 2022. It’s not a coincidence that Iowa State’s Will McDonald, Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson, and Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah became first round picks and Foskey wasn’t. Their percentages were 39.6, 33.7, and 30.1 respectively.
(What’s a true pass set? It’s a pass with no play action, no screen, no rollout, no quick game (time to throw between two and four seconds), and with more than a three-man rush. It gives a better picture of a pass rusher because a team might throw it 50 times in a game, but if large chunk are screens/quick game, those aren’t losses if a defensive linemen doesn’t get pressure)
Notre Dame did have an elite pass rush in 2018 and 2019. They finished fourth and fifth in pass rush grade those seasons. The sack numbers weren’t as good (34), but the impact on quarterbacks was.
A statistic that backs that up is opponent passer rating. The Irish defense held opposing passers to the sixth and fifth lowest passer rating those seasons. On top of that, they had multiple pass rushers who were good to great at generating pressure.
In ‘18, it was Julian Okwara (27.4% on TPS), Khalid Kareem (21.6%), and Jerry Tillery (28%, first out of interior linemen). In ‘19, it was Kareem (30.1%), Jamir Jones (25.7%), and Okwara (25%).
In ‘21, they didn’t have a single defensive lineman who finished above 20% (Foskey was highest at 16.7%). In ‘22, they had a couple who were close (Foskey at 18.9% and Justin Ademilola at 19.6%). That needs to change this fall.
I think it will.
The biggest reason is that Jordan Botelho (30.8% in limited pass rush attempts) is going to have the same size role that he had in the Gator Bowl when he finished with two sacks and 10 pressures. To me, he is a lock to have a monster season rushing the passer.
Then there is Javontae Jean-Baptiste, who was at 20.4% last season at Ohio State. He’ll have more opportunities to produce pressure with Notre Dame and should be a candidate to have a breakout season in the eyes of NFL scouts.
After that, the question will be if they can get more from an interior pass rusher. Howard Cross was at 12.7% last year, which doesn’t make it seem like he will be that guy, but Sheldon Day went from 11.7% in 2014 to 21.6% in 2015. It’s not unprecedented and hopefully Cross isn’t playing on one ankle for a good chunk of the season.
Then there’s Rylie Mills. He didn’t make the expected leap in 2022 that Notre Dame fans were hoping for, but it might have been delayed by him being forced to play outside at end. His pass rush win rate dipped 9.3% compared to 14.6% when he played as an interior player the previous season. With him moving back inside to 3-technique defensive tackle, the leap could happen this season.
Notre Dame lost a player with the most career sacks in the history of the program and even with that, I think they will be better at rushing the passer this season. The sack numbers might be down, but the impact should be greater.
2. I didn’t mention three players who could end up being factors and I left them out on purpose because none of them have enough experience.
Marist Liufau played a lot of snaps at linebacker, but he wasn’t rushing off the edge very much outside of a handful of snaps here and there. When he was on the line as a pass rusher, he often worked as a spy, which he did pretty effectively against North Carolina.
I’d expect him to be used off the edge quite a bit more this season and if Notre Dame decides to use that “Big Dime” package as a primary defense on 3rd downs this fall, then we could see him there a lot.
The other two are Josh Burnham and Junior Tuihalamaka, who will be battling it out to play behind Botelho at Vyper this fall. That additional pass rusher role on 3rd downs should be up for grabs with Liufau and them as the primary contenders.
Kareem and Okwara both flashed as pass rushers in year two after barely playing as freshmen. Burnham’s and Tuihalamaka’s development should be fun to watch this fall.
3. Like most you, I’m pretty tired of talking about Notre Dame recruiting these days. I’m definitely tired of having to explain to people that Marcus Freeman has recruited better than Brian Kelly. Not landing Justin Scott striking out on some other top targets this cycle doesn’t change that.
If things ended today, Freeman would have signed 50 blue-chip prospects (4 or 5-stars) in the last three cycles. In the previous three classes Notre Dame signed 40. The average rating in these Freeman classes is 91.41. The average of Kelly’s best three year run of classes (2012-2014) was 90.94.
Freeman and the staff haven't landed enough of the top of the board prospects, specifically in this class. That’s true and they still are recruiting better and upgrading the overall talent on the roster.
Math wins over vibes. You might not like the vibes currently, but someone complaining that this is the same as it was before is only doing so based on what is happening in the last couple of weeks.
People shouldn’t be talking about Freeman vs BK as a recruiter. They should be talking about Freeman this year vs Freeman the previous two years.
He was appropriately hyped as a recruiter based on what he had done at Notre Dame. I don’t think Notre Dame lands Jaylen Sneed, Josh Burnham, or Junior Tuihalmaka without him. They aren’t closing on Tyson Ford or Benjamin Morrison without him either. (It turns out closing on Morrison was pretty, pretty, pretty big)
I couldn’t see them landing Adon Shuler, Drayk Bowen, Brenan Vernon, Christian Gray, or Jaiden Ausberry without him in the next cycle either. He was a key part of those recruitments and built strong relationships with them before he was named head coach at Notre Dame.
Freeman is great at building relationships. He knows how to sell himself and the program in any kind of setting. He is still involved as a recruiter, but not to the exact same extent now as the head coach. He has so much more on his plate than he did previously, so he can't be.
There’s a big difference between Freeman recruiting as a defensive coordinator and Al Golden recruiting as a defensive coordinator. It's not that Golden is a poor recruiter or doesn't work hard. It’s not even that defense didn't play great last season. I don't think there is a player who would be all in if it was Freeman's scheme over Golden's.
For whatever reason (time away from college, changing recruiting landscape, him wanting to go back to the NFL), Golden hasn't connected to recruits like Freeman did when he was the DC and Freeman hasn’t had the same impact with defensive recruits since he’s been the head coach. There’s more variables at play with some of the top recruits Notre Dame are after, but the biggest difference between this class and the previous two classes is that there is no longer a dynamic recruiter as the DC/linebackers coach.
Figuring out if it’s possible for Freeman to be as big of a factor as he was before and weighing how important having a great recruiter as a DC when Golden does leave is something that will have to be determined going forward.
4. Notre Dame does and should celebrate their differences from other schools and football programs because it can give them an advantage in recruiting. Differences can sometimes be worse, though, and this clip with Penn State coach James Franklin is a reminder of that.
Athletes actually having to go to class and earn their degrees is something that is highlighted in a positive way by Notre Dame. I don’t see how Notre Dame freshman football players having to live in dorms with a roommate that is not a football player is something that helps them in recruiting.
Sure, they can spin it a certain way and I think there are a lot of former Notre Dame players who look back on that experience decades later as a positive. At the moment, that’s not a positive for a majority of recruits. It’s clearly not seen as a positive by the players while they are still in school because almost all of them move off campus to live with teammates the first opportunity they have to do so.
Being a football player at Notre Dame is clearly different than being a regular student. You don’t get treated the same and you also have to essentially work a full-time job of being a football player while still going to class. So, why put another obstacle in the way of someone choosing Notre Dame when they get those advantages at other schools?
Changing this wouldn’t turn Notre Dame into a football factory. It might help them with recruiting players who would no longer have to put the living situation in the con category when comparing programs.
5. As far as first time coordinators go, Clark Lea turned out pretty well for Notre Dame in 2018. With some issues at quarterback and a suspension to their top back for the first four games, the defense carried the Irish to an undefeated regular season and a College Football Playoff appearance.
They finished eighth in points per drive and 15th in DF+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking).
Lea benefited from having the most returning production in the country, a defensive line rotation that featured five future NFL Draft picks, both starting corners being future NFL Draft picks, two stud linebackers, and they added an impact player at safety who had sat out the previous season. He walked into a great situation and took advantage of it.
The situation is pretty close to ideal for Brian Hartline in his first year calling plays at Ohio State as well. He has a loaded wide receiver room, a fantastic duo in the backfield, and an All-American candidate at guard. The talent he’s inheriting would make just any coordinator envious.
I said close to ideal because he’s also breaking in a new quarterback and two new offensive tackles. They have pretty decent options to fill those spots, but it will be a downgrade from what they had in 2022.
Some first-time coordinators end up like Lea. They hit the ground running and end up becoming a head coach in a few years. It doesn’t always go that smoothly.
Even for some who turn out great, there can be growing pains in their first year. Look at what happened at Clemson with Brandon Streeter, who was one and done as a coordinator there. First time defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin kept his job after one year and he may turn out to be a great hire, but their defense dipped to 17th in DF+, which was their lowest ranking since 2013. The talent they had on that side of the ball was a lot better than 17th.
Hartline has awesome material to work with and has a great offensive mind in Ryan Day working with him. Everything is set up for him to succeed.
The Notre Dame game is also the first big game where he’ll call plays, though. It’s also his first big road game where there will be a lot more chaos than calling plays against Youngstown State or Western Kentucky at home. It’s one of those things that I’ve been thinking about that won’t be factored in too heavily when looking at the match up right before it happens. It could end up being a bigger deal than some think and it’s why it’s a good thing for Notre Dame that the game will be played at home in September.
6. Every week matters during the season and no game can be taken lightly as Freeman found out in his first season as coach, but man, the stretch of games from Ohio State to USC with road games at Duke and Louisville in between will be a tough one for the Irish.
The Buckeyes are the most talented team on the schedule.
Duke returns almost all of their production on offense and that’s the kind of game that could end up being a noon kick after a tough night game the week before.
Louisville is a mystery box. They have 39 new players on their roster and no one knows how good they’ll be.
USC has Caleb Williams. I could almost end it there, but that says enough that Notre Dame is going to have to put up a lot of points to win that night.
That stretch of games is going to say a lot about how everyone feels about the season. Go 3-1 or 4-0, then people will be pretty happy about where things stand with Freeman in year two. Do worse than that and most will be reacting like they are now with recruiting.
Notre Dame needs to be in the conversation as a CFP team this fall. They need to be building something even if they aren’t ready to make that big leap yet.
Going on a run during this stretch would indicate that they’re on their way.
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