Notre Dame Opponent Preview | USC
Through all of the ups and downs in the post-Pete Carroll era, the one thing that never dipped at USC was the skill talent. They continued to recruit elite prospects and finished with a top-25 in OF+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking for offense) in nine of 12 seasons.
In only one of those seasons did they have a top-10 offense, though. Enter Lincoln Riley, who had a top-10 offense every season he was at Oklahoma, including three seasons where they finished first in OF+ (once as coordinator, twice as head coach).
USC had the top ranked offense in college football last season with quarterback Caleb Williams leading the way. He is back and they are loaded with skill talent again. It would be shocking if they finished outside of the top-5 on offense this fall.
But about that defense…
Uh, it was bad. They finished 94th in DF+ and as much as the transfers helped them on offense, they couldn’t plug all of their holes on defense.
Riley brought back Alex Grinch as defensive coordinator and added nine more transfers on that side of the ball. They needed more talent, but the problems may be deeper than that.
In the six years Riley has been a head coach, the only season his defense was above average was the 2020 Covid season. Whether it’s the way they practice or his focus being directed towards the offense, average has been the ceiling for his team’s defenses.
Notre Dame is likely going to have to win a shootout against USC because that’s how Riley’s teams get beat. They gave up over 40 in each of their three losses last season Oklahoma gave up an average of 43.5 points in the 10 games Riley lost there.
Take the over when the Trojans visit South Bend in October.
Post-Spring SP+ Ranking
7th overall, 1st on offense and 39th on defense
Key losses
The Trojans don’t lose a ton of quantity, but the quality is significant. OL Andrew Voorhees was an All-American at left guard and easily their best player up front.
WR Jordan Addison didn’t have the same prolific numbers that he put up at Pitt, but he was still a first round pick and their leading receiver despite missing three games.
RB Travis Dye was their leading rusher after transferring from Oregon (though they did not miss a beat when he got hurt).
The two defenders they had who were drafted were outstanding for them in 2022 and the defense would have been even worse without them.
CB Mekhi Blackmon was their best cover guy (18 Havoc plays) and was one of the best cover corners in the Pac-12.
DL Tuli Tuipolotu put up double digit sacks and 27 Havoc plays. He was a game wrecker for them and the next closest D-linemen to his production barely contributed ⅓ of Tuipolotu’s havoc numbers.
Key additions
WR Dorian Singer (Arizona) led the Pac-12 with 1,105 receiving yards last season and he’s essentially their Addison replacement. He’s not quite at that level and is a different type of receiver who wins contested more often, but they don’t need him to be the same as Addison with the depth they have at the position.
RB Marshawn Lloyd (South Carolina) is a former elite recruit whose stats are a bit misleading for a few reasons. He didn’t get much help from a poor offensive line and his yards per carry were inflated going against weaker competition (7.65 YPC vs non Power 5 and less then four YPC vs Power 5 programs), but he should get a chance to shine with a better scheme and personnel helping him.
They have three members of the 2023 Fab 50 who only add to their already loaded group of skill talent. WR Zachariah Branch, TE Duce Robinson, and WR Makai Lemon could all factor into the offense this fall and have big play potential.
Former Wyoming guard Emmanuel Pregnon is a monster with an NFL future. They brought him in after the spring and he’s expected to step into Voorhees’ old spot. G Jarrett Kingston (Washington State) has started at guard and tackle during his college career. He was the Wazzu’s best O-linemen and should be a quality starter. OT Michael Tarquin (Florida) started at right tackle for the Gators last fall and is another projected starter up front.
USC didn’t like what they had on the defensive line so they went out and basically got a whole new starting group from the transfer portal.
Jack Sullivan (Purdue) was a plus pass rusher in the Big Ten and he might not even start for USC.
DE Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M) and DT Bear Alexander (Georgia) were elite recruits who played limited reps as true freshmen, but they have SEC traits and game wrecker potential.
DT Kyon Barrs (Arizona) was second team All Pac-12 in 2021 and he has some disruptive potential as a nose tackle.
LB Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State) is a high ceiling addition to the defense. He flashed consistently as a blitzer and finished with 13 tackles for loss in 2022.
CB Christian Roland-Wallace (Arizona, again) is expected to step into a starting role. He’s started a ton of games and played at a pretty high level, but never had the ball production anywhere close to what USC got from Blackmon last season.
They also added CB Tre’quon Fegans (Alabama), a former top-150 rated prospect, who redshirted in his only college season.
Top returners and returning production
14th in returning production. 32nd on offense, 15th on defense It’s really all about Caleb Williams. The returning Heisman trophy winner was phenomenal in every way for them and is the projected top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The only thing that slowed him down was a hamstring injury against Utah. Notre Dame has to try and find a way to put a straight jacket on Houdini and keep it on him.
WR Mario Williams, WR Brendan Rice, and WR Tahj Washington are all back at receiver. Williams is poised to have a monster season with Addison gone and Rice had a huge bowl game (6 for 174 and two touchdowns). He’s ready for a bigger role this fall, but still brought in 39 catches in 2022.
It might surprise people that Washington was the second leading receiver on the team (50 catches) and he could lead the team this fall or end up lost in the shuffle because they have so many options.
Everyone is expecting Lloyd to be RB1, but they are also bringing back Austin Jones (5.2 YPC) and he had big games against UCLA and Notre Dame to finish the season. At the very least he’s a solid number two and they will have plenty of depth in the backfield.
Raleek Brown is part of that depth and he’s an option who can be dangerous as a receiver and has the speed to create some problems.
OL Jonah Monheim and C Justin Dedich are the two returning starters. Monheim was a player Notre Dame really wanted to flip late as a recruit and he’s emerged as a quality player who could play at a high level at guard or tackle.
The list of impact players returning on defense isn’t long.
S Calen Bullock had five interceptions last season and he’s getting love as preseason All-American. They’ll need him to have a similar kind of year this fall.
LB Eric Gentry was more intriguing than good last season, but he’s long (6’6”) and athletic. He produced 10 Havoc plays in only 11 games.
Three big questions
Can the defense be competent?
The only good thing about the defense last year were the turnovers and history says that is unsustainable. They were lucky to win 11 games with poor special teams plus a defense that finished 94th in DF+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking) and 111th in points per drive.
Riley decided to retain Grinch as defensive coordinator. They’ve upgraded on the defensive line, but adding so many new players was likely one of the main reasons why they had so many busts (127th in plays of 30-yards or more against).
Six transfers projected to start could end up burning them again.
They need to make a big jump or else everything will fall on the offense again. It’s going to be critical for them to develop young talent like Lucas, Alexander, and the highly rated talent they have signed in recent years like CB Domani Jackson, DL Korey Foreman, and LB Raesjon Davis. They were are all expected to become great players, but none of them have proven anything at the college level up to this point.
Can they stay healthy up front?
USC’s collective went all-in acquiring offensive and defensive line talent in the transfer portal. They might have added seven starters combined.
All of the additions on the defensive line make them better and deeper. Time will tell if they have anyone who ends up being elite, but they have a good mix of high ceiling youngsters and older players with experience.
They are noticeably more thin on the O-line. Poor recruiting has burned them and if one of their best five goes down, it could spell trouble.
A couple of injuries and it might mean Williams will have to be an escape artist on every snap.
Can Williams be as transcendent as he was last year?
Williams was unbelievable last season, but they needed all of that greatness to win 11 games. He might put up the same numbers, but maybe he won’t be quite as awesome on 3rd and long. He converted more first down passes on 3rd and 10+ than any other quarterback in the country.
If he’s even slightly worse than he was in 2022, can the rest of the team make up the difference? It’s an unknown and a pretty big deal for USC because he meant everything for them in what looked like impossible situations.
How they’ve recruited
They have a 57.8% blue-chip ratio over the last four cycles, but that’s with only signing 64 total players (37 blue-chips). Seven of those blue-chips are no longer on the roster.
However, they added 14 transfers who were ranked as blue-chips as transfers (not their high school ranking), so they have more than enough talent playing key roles for them. There are 10 players on the roster who were ranked as composite top-50 recruits out of high school and four of them transferred to USC. Ohio State (11) and Clemson (11) are the only programs who Notre Dame faces this season with more on their rosters.
The big issue for them is that only one of those 10 is projected to be a starter on defense (three others are backups) and out of the 44 total blue-chip recruits/transfers, only 18 of them play defense. 10 of them are freshmen or sophomores.
They can miss on skill talent on offense because they’ve signed so many elite prospects where enough are going to hit. They don’t have the same margin for error on defense where they need to start developing some of these players to make an impact this fall.
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