Notre Dame Opponent Preview | Clemson
Clemson has won 31 games in the last three seasons. At most programs they’d throw a parade. After the run that Clemson had previously, 69 wins in five seasons(!), it was considered a borderline crisis.
Dabo Swinney might have gotten too comfortable. He went in-house to replace both of his championship coordinators after the 2021 seasons and it didn’t work out well for them.
Swinney’s response to that was to get uncomfortable again by bringing in Garrett Riley. His offenses finished 29th, 21st and 9th at SMU and TCU in the last three seasons and he’s bringing his version of Air Raid to Clemson to see if they can climb up from 44th in OF+ (combined FEI and SP+) all the way back to the top-10.
Despite being loaded with 5-star talent, the defense dipped to 17th in DF+, the lowest ranking for them since Brent Venables' second year as coordinator back in 2013. Swinney retained Wes Goodwin to run the defense and if they decline again, it won’t be because of talent. They are once again loaded on that side of the ball despite losing four NFL Draft picks from their front seven.
A lot of change that happened this offseason had to be motivated by the way Notre Dame whooped them last November. In Swinney’s own words, it was an “ass-kicking”. They had won 14 straight games prior to that and were under the illusion they had turned things around.
They’ll be looking for revenge when the Irish visit Clemson late this season. We’ll have a very good idea of what kind of team the Tigers are before then.
Post-Spring SP+ Ranking
They are 12th overall, 21st on offense and 11th on defense.
Key losses
QB DJ Uiagalelei did not have the three-and-out run that many expected him to have at Clemson. He’s off to Oregon State to find a better fit.
WR Joseph Ngata had 41 catches and was their second leading receiver in 2022. The bigger loss in the passing game is TE Davis Allen (5th round pick). He led the Tigers in receiving touchdowns the last two seasons and caught 11 of 12 contested targets last fall.
Starting LT Jordan McFadden (5th round pick) was their best linemen and they need former top-50 prospect Tristan Leigh to step in to fill his shoes. Leigh has only played 70 snaps in his two years on campus.
DE Myles Murphy, DT Bryan Bresee, DE KJ Henry, and LB Trenton Simpson are the four they have to replace in the front seven. Even a program like Clemson won’t be able to plug in replacements who are at the same level they were. Murphy had 32 Havoc plays in the last two seasons and Henry was one of the best edge rushers in college football in 2022.
They did lose more depth players to the transfer portal, but none of them were significant contributors last year or were expected to be this year.
Key additions
Usually this is the section where I have to do the most research, but Clemson has either been unwilling or unlucky when it comes to adding talented transfers. That means they aren’t getting any instant impact help from outside of the building other than a few freshmen who might make a splash.
Two who have a chance to are DT Peter Woods and edge Tomarrion Parker. They could be in the rotation immediately and Woods has already impressed their staff with a strong spring as an early enrollee.
Top returners and returning production
They are 36th in returning production. They’re 73rd on offense and 23rd on defense (returning production on defense is weighted towards the back seven more than the front seven).
It’s QB Cade Klubnik’s team now. The former 5-star recruit didn’t have a debut season that was reminiscent of Trevor Lawrence and his numbers in the bowl game (5.8 yards per attempt, two interceptions and zero touchdowns) aren’t anything to get hyped about, but he’s expected to be much improved as a sophomore in a new system. He’s a dual-threat who had a couple of key first down runs in the win against Syracuse last season.
RB Will Shipley had 1,424 yards from scrimmage last fall and scored 15 touchdowns on the ground. Him and Phil Mafah (5.3 yards per carry) are a strong duo. I think they’ll see some lighter boxes this fall compared to last year so those numbers could go up.
Four starters are back up front, including OT Blake Miller. He started as a true freshman and he was particularly impressive as a run blocker.
DTs Ruke Orhorhoro (13 Havoc plays) and Tyler Davis (10.5) are men. They are literally men as in fifth-year players who could have entered the NFL Draft last year and been selected. They both chose to come back and are All-ACC caliber defenders.
Edge Xavier Thomas has had a roller coaster career after being the top ranked player in the country as a recruit. He’s struggled to stay healthy. They need him to be. He had an elite pressure rate vs true pass sets (28.6%) in 2021. He only saw action in three games in 2022.
LB Barrett Carter (22.5 Havoc plays) and LB Jeremiah Trotter (21.5) are as good as any linebacker duo in the country. Carter made the move to inside linebacker after the Notre Dame game and continued to play at a very high level.
They have three very good players returning at safety in Andrew Mukuba, Jalyn Phillips, and RJ Mickens. They have plenty of experience returning at corner as well led by Nate Wiggins (15 Havoc plays) who is far and away the best of the group.
Three big questions?
Can Riley rejuvenate the offense?
Clemson fans were spoiled by back to back generational talents at quarterback and a ridiculous amount of elite skill talent. The train was supposed to keep on rolling, but the offense was stale and without players who were far superior than the competition, they fell back to earth.
Garrett isn’t just Lincoln’s brother. He’s an accomplished coach in his own right. This is his first time running an offense outside of the Air Raid ecosystem, though. He has to go in and decide what to implement and what will work best for the talent he has.
One note that may or may not matter months from now, but Marcus Freeman’s defense at Cincinnati faced Riley’s SMU offense during the 2020 season. They put up their lowest yards per play (3.41) and points (13) in that game.
Do they have a “dude” at receiver?
That would definitely help out Riley if they do. The jury is out on Antonio Williams who only averaged 10.8 yards per reception. Beaux Collins has shown flashes as a deep threat and I was a big fan of sophomore Adam Randall as a recruit. Clemson needs at least one of those players to be the next version of Tee Higgins, Justyn Ross, or Mike Williams. They used to have a couple of these impact receivers each season and it’s held back their offense just as much as anything else.
Can the defense get back to elite status?
Goodwin still has a lot to prove to be considered where Venables was as a coordinator, but it’s more than just scheme for them.
They need better cornerback play. They need some unproven defensive linemen to step up and become the next group of high NFL Draft picks. Maybe as important as anything else, they need to be tougher. They were bullied by Notre Dame as much as they were out coached by them.
If they’re not tougher this year, they’ll probably get bullied again.
How they’ve recruited
Clemson didn’t quite become the recruiting juggernaut that were supposed to be after those national championships. They have recruited well, but that top-three class in 2020 proved to be the exception and not the rule.
They have a 66.7% blue-chip ratio over the last four classes and 11 5-stars included in there, but all five of the ones they signed in ‘20 are no longer on the roster and 12 total blue-chips are gone.
Dabo hasn’t found those hidden gems like Isaiah Simmons recently. Without any of those sprinkled in, the team will go as far as former elite recruits like Trotter, Carter, Mukuba, Thomas, Shipley, and Klubnik can take them.
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