Notre Dame Opponent Preview | Wake Forest
Dave Clawson is fully in the Ken Niumatalolo zone.
He’s successfully built a winning program at a place that shouldn’t win, but he’s done it with a unique offensive scheme that hasn’t made him unattractive as a coaching candidate at bigger programs. He’s entering his 10th season at Wake Forest and it doesn’t seem like he’ll be going anywhere anytime soon.
They went 6-18 in his first two seasons. They’re 53-38 since then with the only losing season being a 4-5 mark during the shortened 2020 campaign.
For the first time since 2018, Wake will enter a season without an experienced quarterback. It seems pretty logical that they’ll take a step back on that side of the ball after being ranked in the top-12 in OF+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking) the last two seasons, but they’ll still be a difficult offense to play against.
They haven’t found the right formula on defense since Mike Elko left after the 2016 season, but defensive coordinator Brad Lambert coached two top-25 defenses at Marshall and Purdue prior to taking the job at Wake in 2022, so there is optimism that he’ll be the guy to make them more competitive on that side of the ball.
That’s the key for Wake Forest this season. The offense was built to win shootouts the last two years and they won a lot of them (19 wins). They might not be able to do the same in 2023 and if they want to hang with a program like Notre Dame, they’ll need to greatly improve on defense to have a shot at an upset.
Post-Spring SP+ Ranking
They are ranked 51st overall, 38th on offense and 73rd on defense.
Key losses
Notre Dame fans know the big one for them. QB Sam Hartman threw for an ACC record 110 touchdowns and was responsible for 128 total in his time at Wake Forest. That’s 17th all-time in the history of the NCAA.
He holds pretty much every career passing record at the school and to say he’ll be difficult to replace is an understatement.
They also have to deal with losing three starters on the O-line and leading receiver AT Perry (6th round picks, 1,096 yards and 11 touchdowns). Both their second and third leading rushers transferred so depth at RB could be a concern.
On defense, they lost their top-three DTs, two of their top-three edge rushers, and both starting corners.
DT Kobi Turner (3rd round picks) was fantastic after transferring from Richmond. He was their best player on defense and contributed 15 Havoc plays. DT Tyler Williams was a very good interior pass rusher (21.7% win rate in true pass sets) and will be missed.
LB Ray Smenda Jr. led the team with 117 tackles is out of eligibility.
Edge Randall Bothroyd (23.1% in TPS, 11 Havoc plays) might have been their second best player and he transferred to Oklahoma.
CB Gavin Holmes (9 pass breakups) transferred to Texas. That’s pretty much the nightmare scenario for the middle tier Power 5 programs to lose good players to blue-bloods and Wake lost three of them.
Key additions
They’re bringing in DL Bryce Ganious from Villanova and he’s projected to start. They have to hope he can have a Kobi Turner like impact because they need him to. He should replace some of that pass rush they’re losing (23.1% vs TPS).
LB Jacob Roberts transferred in from North Carolina A&T and is also projected to start at inside linebacker. He was an FCS All-American.
Top returners and returning production
They’re 112th in returning production. They’re 117th on offense and 75th on defense. When you lose your QB, top receiver, and so many snaps on the O-line, that’s how it typically shakes out.
RB Justice Ellison is back (707, 4.1 YPC). No other back who returns has more than 14 career carries so Ellison’s health will likely be important.
WRs Donavon Greene (17.4 per reception, 66.7 contested catch), Jahmal Banks (nine touchdowns, 65.2% contested catch), and Taylor Morin (nine touchdowns) are a very good group even without Perry. They are going to take plenty of shots down the field and the new quarterback should feel confident targeting them.
Edge Jasheen Davis led the team in pressures and had 13 tackles for loss last season. He only had one TFL in the first four games and exploded for a dozen in the final nine.
LB Chase Jones (10 Havoc plays) and safety Malik Mustapha (13 Havoc plays) are the two best returning players in the back seven. Mustapha was another transfer portal win for Wake. He also transferred over from Richmond and he’s a very effective blitzer.
CB Caelan Carson missed four games last season and they need him healthy this fall. He’s been their best cover guy the last two seasons and finds the football (21 passes defended in his career).
One big question
Can they replace what Hartman gave them?
Mitch Griffis is going to be the starter at quarterback heading into the season. He earned praise during the spring, but he’s only thrown 56 career passes. 29 of them were against VMI in last season’s opener.
He played well (9.9 yards per attempt, three touchdowns), but it wasn’t exactly an ACC caliber defense he was facing.
The good news for them is that he has been in the system for a long time. This isn’t Hartman coming in as a skinny freshman in 2018 and getting thrown the wolves (although Griffis is about the same size Hartman was then).
The bad news is that he has to show he can hold up during the season because he’s likely to get hit A LOT. Teams relentlessly blitz the slow mesh and he’s going to have to deal with more than he’s ever had to handle before.
They need to be good on offense because they don’t have enough “dudes” on defense. We’ll see if Griffis can keep them close to what they were with Hartman.
How they’ve recruited
They’ve signed three 4-stars in their last four classes.
Clawson has done a great job of building a winning program by leaning into the areas where he has found the most talent (wide receiver) and used a unique offensive system that no one else is doing. It’s a little like the service academies and them running the triple option.
In terms of raw talent, they have no business hanging with a team like Clemson (took them to overtime last season) or beating Florida State (they have three straight wins over the Seminoles). That hasn’t stopped them from overachieving year after year. They might take a step back this fall, but don’t expect them to a push-over when they play the Irish.
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