3 Notre Dame Defensive Observations from 2023 College Football Preview Magazines
Last fall, Notre Dame finished with a defense ranked outside the top 20 for the first time since the team won just four games in 2016.
The Fighting Irish ended 2022 ranked 36th according to Football Outsiders DF+, which combines Football Outsider’s DFEI (opponent-adjusted drive efficiency data defensive ratings) and ESPN’s SP+ rankings.
Three popular college football preview magazines believe the Notre Dame defense may return to form in 2023, but they hold a few obvious hesitations.
“With the loss of three veterans up front, including the school-record holder for sacks (Isaiah Foskey), the line is a concern,” wrote an Athlon Sports contributor regarding the Fighting Irish defense. “The Irish were stout much of the time in ‘22 but allowed too many ill-timed TD drives and collapsed in the red zone (130th nationally, allowing 32 scores in 34 possessions).”
It’s important to remember that these college football preview magazines are far from infallible. With a relatively small staff, the publications produce 100s of pages covering major storylines, key transfers and all 133 FBS programs — all on a tight deadline.
Yet these publications still carry significance inside the college football ecosystem. Fans, analysts and television personalities nationwide formulate opinions based on these publications.
Below are three observations on Notre Dame’s defense after reading three of the most popular annual college football preview magazines from Athlon Sports, Lindy’s and Phil Steele.
Notre Dame should exceed expectations on defense if…
the line generates a consistent pass rush.
The Irish ranked 13th in team sacks in 2022 with 38.0. Understandably, national analysts expect Notre Dame’s pass rush to hold the team back this fall.
“The Irish are a fringe playoff contender,” wrote an Athlon Sports contributor. “Yet teams with dominant defensive lines are winning national titles, and the Irish don’t have one to match.”
Notre Dame must replace 19.0 sacks from last year’s defensive line. That includes 11.0 sacks from Foskey. Justin and Jayson Ademilola chipped in 3.0 sacks apiece before turning pro during the offseason.
“They may be down a notch with the loss of their top three guys,” Steele wrote.
Steele still ranks the Irish defensive line 18th in the nation, two spots behind Alabama. His publication is higher on the Notre Dame defensive line than the others.
Fortunately, there are a few x-factors with the ability to raise the program’s ceiling significantly.
Fifth-year defensive end Javontae Jean-Baptiste is relatively unproven with 8.0 career sacks, but he ranks 10th among draft-eligible defensive ends, per Steele. It’s a projection based on Jean-Baptiste’s talent and expanded role in the Fighting Irish defense. He certainly has the talent to become a day-two pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Rylie Mills is the No. 24 overall draft-eligible defensive tackle, but can the rising senior outperform this ranking given his unique athletic profile and full-time commitment to playing defensive tackle?
If he can, Notre Dame could have a disruptive force up the middle for the first time in several years. Let’s not forget about Howard Cross II, the No. 78 overall DT.
Jordan Botelho isn’t rated among the top 80 edge players, but he has the talent to be. As I pointed out the other day, his 2022 numbers are similar to Jack Sawyer’s, Steele’s No. 7 draft-eligible defensive end, but Botelho played 200 fewer snaps.
Most national publications and analysts assume the Irish will have a top-25 defense. Can young players like Jason Onye, Gabriel Rubio, and Junior Tuihalamaka step up? If they can, Notre Dame’s pass rush could be among the best in college football and raise the defenses ceiling.
Ben Morrison garners lofty expectations after a breakout freshman campaign
Lindy’s rates Morrison as the No. 4 overall returning cornerback in college football behind Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry, Iowa’s Cooper DeJean and Ohio State’s Denzel Burke.
All three pre-season magazines placed the rising sophomore on either their second or third All-American team.
Morrison is the primary reason Lindy’s projects the Irish as having the sixth-best defensive back unit in the nation, especially given unproven commodities at field corner and safety.
“We wouldn’t be shocked if second-year cornerback Benjamin Morrison ends up being a two-time All-American before heading off to the NFL,” wrote a Lindy’s contributor. “If fellow corner Cam Hart can avoid the injury bug that has plagued his career, the Irish have a top duo on the outside while exploring intriguing but unproven pieces at safety.”
That’s high praise to heap onto Morrison, a player that at least one recruiting service (On3) rated as a three-star prospect this time last year.
Essentially, Morrison must improve upon his breakout freshman campaign while handling high expectations.
If he can, Notre Dame could have its best secondary since 2018. If not, the defense could finish well outside the top 20 for a second straight season.
Does the Irish roster have Top-Tier Linebackers?
Fighting Irish often criticize Notre Dame’s trio of senior linebackers: JD Bertrand, Marist Liufau and Jack Kiser.
From a national perspective, all three are revered and rank among the top-40 at their respective positions.
Bertrand - No. 14 inside linebacker
Liufau — No. 11 outside linebacker
Kiser — No. 36 outside linebacker.
Only two teams on Notre Dame’s 2023 schedule possess draft-eligible linebackers rated higher.
Ohio State:
Tommy Eichenberg — No. 1 inside linebacker
Steele Chambers — No. 5 outside linebacker
Clemson:
Jeremiah Trotter Jr. — No. 3 inside linebacker
Barrett Carter — No. 3 outside linebacker
Steele rates the Irish linebacker rotation as the seventh best in the nation, ahead of Ohio State’s.
“The Irish held foes to 74 YPG below their season average last year (14th) despite having to replace two starters at linebacker,” Steele wrote. “This year they return their No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 tacklers and they’re backed by two ‘very highly touted’ redshirt freshmen and three more true frosh.”
Athlon Sports is also high on the Irish linebackers, ranking this unit No. 9 overall.
Additional Observations
Preseason Team Rankings:
Phil Steele - No. 10
Lindy’s - No. 12
Athlon Sports - No. 14
…
Steele projects Notre Dame to have the sixth-best special teams unit in the country and ranks Michael Vinson as the best long snapper in the nation.
“The Fighting Irish blocked an amazing seven punts last year vaulting up to No. 7 in our special teams rankings,” Steele wrote. “While they lose their kicker and punter, they add USF transfer kicker Spencer Shrader, who has a strong leg, and redshirt freshman Bryce McFerson, who has a huge leg and had a great spring.“