Scouting Report | Clemson
One year ago, Clemson was 8-0 and traveling to Notre Dame thinking they were on their way back to the College Football Playoff after a one-year hiatus.
They had a six-year run where they made the CFP every season and won two national championships. They only lost seven games during that span.
It was Marcus Freeman starring as the coach with his back against the wall when Dabo Swinney brought his program to play Notre Dame. Things have flipped quite a bit since then. Now it’s Swinney who desperately could use a win in a big game.
Losing seven games in six years feels like a lifetime ago. They are now 7-7 in their last 14 games and 4-4 this season.
Clemson could easily be 7-1, they lost two games in overtime and turnovers killed them in their other two losses, but that doesn’t really change who they are. They have a lot of raw talent (5th in 247Sports’ team talent rankings), they are 24th in F+, and they have a really good defense and a not so good offense.
That’s why they are in the good defense/bad offense quadrant in terms of opponent adjusted EPA per play.
Clemson is 0-3 against top-30 opponents this season, but their only loss at home was in overtime to Florida State.
Offense
Hiring Garrett Riley away from TCU was seen as an incredibly savvy move by Swinney, but it hasn’t worked out well through eight games.
His offenses finished 29th, 21st and 9th at SMU and TCU in the last three seasons and he brought his version of the Air Raid to Clemson to see if they could climb up from 44th in OF+ (combined FEI and SP+) to back where they were previously.
That climb has been a little bit more difficult than anticipated. A new play-caller has not made a difference with them currently ranked 46th in OF+.
Riley helped develop Max Duggan into a Heisman contender, but that hasn’t happened with Cade Klubnik. They are averaging 19.3 points per game vs Power 5 opponents and are 91st in points per drive. They are currently 24th in pace of play, so Notre Dame has to be prepared for tempo, but that’s something that only works well when the offense is getting first downs.
They have only senior starting on offense. It’s a very young group.
Expected Strengths
Well, I don’t know if I would classify anything from them as a strength on offense.
The duo they have in the backfield is a good one, but Will Shipley may not be available in this game after suffering what looked like a bad concussion against NC State.
Potential Weaknesses
They don’t have a dude at wide receiver. There’s no elite guy they can just chuck it up to like they used to have for many years. They’ve recruited well in terms of star rankings, but these guys haven’t panned out and their top receiver Antonio Williams is going to be out for this game.
The offensive line play hasn’t been good. They are 100th in run blocking grade and 99th in EPA per rush. They allow 7.7 TFLs per game against Power 5 competition (100th) and have a 20.5% havoc rate allowed vs Power 5 programs. Notre Dame’s defense is 22nd in havoc rate.
The poor O-line play has led to poor quarterback play. They are 77th in EPA per drop back. Florida State and Miami were able to get a ton of pressure on him (46.7% and 53.7% respectively).
This from ESPN’s David Hale sums up the struggles of the passing game. (Stats are from before the NC State game)
They are 99th in red zone TD percentage. They struggled to execute in that area of the field. They are also 97th in plays of 20+ yards from scrimmage. They are often forced to get the ball out quickly and haven’t had anyone proven to be dynamic after the catch.
Personnel notes
QB Cade Klubnik
- 6-2 195
- 73rd in ESPN’s QBR
- Poor decision-making with RPOs, blitz impacts him
- 4-5 record as a starter
- Good athlete who can move the sticks as a runner
- 6 TDs, 5 INTs vs ACC opponents
- Struggled vs the blitz against FSU, 46.7% completions
- 4.2 YPA vs blitz against Wake
- 9 deep shots vs Miami, 18 in their other six games
- 5.2 YPA, 2 picks vs NC State
- 8 batted balls, 5th most in the country
- 9 fumbles, most in the country
- 5.3 ADOT vs NC State, 7.2 on the season
RB Will Shipley
- 5-11 205
- All-purpose monster last season, 15 TDs
- High effort runner that typically takes more than one to bring down
- Good long speed, but lack of explosive runs this season
- Long of 21
- 17 catches, mostly check downs
- 4.8 per reception
- A more dangerous receiver last season
- Concussion vs NC State, looked really bad when it happened
RB Phil Mafah
- 6-1 230
- Runs hard through contact
- 4.32 YPC after contact
- Does have big play ability, 3 carries of 40+
- Similar player to Estime
WR Tyler Brown
- 5-11 180
- True freshman, plays in the slot
- 153 vs Syracuse
- 3 catches for 6 yards vs NC State
- Can be a vertical threat if they get a match up
WR Beaux Collins
- 6-3 210
- 8 of 13 on contested catches
- Flashes on the boundary by winning back shoulder
- His best is good, but disappears and has 4 drops
WR Antonio Williams
- 5-11 190
- 17 for 192 this season
- Missed 3 games and then came back for Miami
- Injured toe, expected out for ND
- Best receiver on the team
WR Adam Randall
- 6-2 225
- Inconsistent hands
- Big time athlete, underachiever
WR Troy Stellato
- 6-1 190
- 8.1 yards per reception
- He can run if he gets space
TE Jake Briningstool
- 6-6 230
- Breakout game vs Miami, 5 for 126
- 8 for 93 vs NC State
- 20 targets in the first 5 games, 26 in the last 3
- Tough matchup, basically a big receiver with some wiggle
LT Tristan Leigh
- 6-6 315
- Not a dominant run blocker, but been solid in pass pro
- Light feet
- Splitting the job with Sadler
- Moved to RG for NC State
- Didn’t look super comfortable, beat on a lateral move for a hit on the QB
LT Collin Sadler
- 6-6 325
- Splitting the job with Leigh
- The better run blocker, worse pass blocker
- Played most of the snaps at LT vs NC St, struggled in pass pro
RT Blake Miller
- 6-6 315
- Returning starter, true soph
- Hasn’t made the jump this season that people expected him to
- Gave up 11 total pressures vs Duke and Miami
- 5 penalties
- Average in pass pro, loses against twitch
LG Marcus Tate
- 6-5 325 -
3-year starter
- Steady presence, solid in pass pro
- An NFL player
RG Mitchell Mayes
- 6-3 315
- Played multiple position
s - Been brutal in protection, 22 pressures given up
RG Harrison Sewell
- 6-3 315
- True freshman
- Typical rookie ups and downs
C Will Putnam
- 6-4 315
- 6th year player
- Over 3,000 snaps in his career
- Struggles moving defenders in the run game at the POA
- Average player in pass pro
Key for Notre Dame
Whoop them up front
Notre Dame’s defensive line is better than Clemson’s offensive line. If Clemson is forced to become one dimensional and throw the football a ton, it’s likely going to be a long day for their offense against Notre Dame’s secondary.
NC State did a lot of drop 8 against them and it was effective, but I’d expect Notre Dame to continue to be who they are and challenge Clemson with plenty of five man pressures.
Defense
DC Wes Goodwin had big shoes to fill when Brent Venables left to become the head coach at Oklahoma and his first season was good, but not up to the previous standard that was in place.
Despite being loaded with 5-star talent, the defense dipped to 17th in DF+, the lowest ranking for them since Venables' second year as coordinator back in 2013. They’ve been better this season and deserve more from their offense.
They are 10th in DF+, 8th in points per drive, and 7th in yards per play.
Against NC State, they played really well. They only allowed 3 of 13 conversions on 3rd down, gave up 2.5 per rush, 6.9 yards per attempt, and nine first downs. The problem was that they gave up 122 yards on two plays and that came back to bite them.
Expected Strengths
The pass defense is elite. They are 9th in EPA per drop back, 6th in YPA, and are able to play a high percentage of man coverage outside because their corners are so good.
They are 7th in havoc rate and make a ton of negative plays with an aggressive style, but giving up those big plays have been rare. They 9th in allowing plays of 20+ yards from scrimmage.
It’s not dissimilar from Notre Dame in a lot of ways where they are really strong at all three levels of the defense.
Potential Weaknesses
They are 43rd in EPA per rush, which is obviously not bad, but also not great. Duke and Miami both found success running the football on them (6.63 YPC and 5.55 YPC) with some chunk plays, much like the one chunk play NC State had.
They will sell out to stop the run, but did that last year and the Irish had 42 carries from the running backs where they were only stuffed for zero or less three times. They averaged 6.0 yards per carry on first down.
Personnel notes
Edge TJ Parker
- 6-3 255
- True freshman
- Leads team in TFLs
- 3 pressures vs FSU
- Big time traits
Edge Xavier Thomas
- 6-2 245
- 6th year player
- Numerous injuries, former top ranked recruit
- Twitchy athlete, but not polished
- 14 pressure in 3 games before Miami
- Did not play vs Miami, not injury related
- Leads the team in pressures, pass rush win rate
- Back for NC State, only one pressure
Edge Justin Mascoll
- 6-4 260
- 6th year player
- NFL traits, not NFL production
- Good vs the run
Edge Cade Denhoff
- 6-5 255
- Rotation player with only one pressure vs ACC competition
DT Tyler Davis
- 6-2 302
- Injuries have kept him in school, but an NFL talent
- 4.95 40
-TFLs down, but still playing at a high level
- Equally good vs run and pass
- Top-5 PFF grade for DTs
- At his best, he’s dominant
- 23.5% win rate vs true pass sets
DT Ruke Orhororo
- 6-4 290
- Can play all over the line
- Explosive flashes
- Monster game vs NC State
DT Peter Woods
- 6-2 315
- True freshman
- No drop off when he’s in the game
- Did not play vs NC State
DT Payton Page
- 6-4 315
- Rotation player
- Win with size and power, not super twitchy
LB Barrett Carter
- 6-1 225
- Outstanding athlete who is comfortable inside and out
- 4.22 short shuttle, 4.55 40
- Great instincts
- 22.5 havoc plays in ‘22
- DB in an LB body
- Can run at him
- A better blitzer off the edge than inside
LB Jeremiah Trotter
- 6-0 230
- Physical
- Wins with great instincts and anticipation
- 20.5 havoc plays in ‘22
- Average speed in space
- 15.5 havoc plays in ‘23
- Very good blitzer, bring him frequently on passing downs
- Not good in man coverage
LB Wade Woodaz
- 6-3 230
- 6 havoc plays, 2 INTs
- Can rush the passer, long
S/Nickel Andrew Mukuba
- 6-0 185
- High level NFL prospect
- transitioned to primary slot defender
- Been outstanding in man this season, 46.6 NFL QB rating when targeted
S Jalyn Phillips
- 6-1 205
- 5th year player
- 5 havoc plays
- Consistently strong tackler
S/Nickel Khalil Barnes
- 6-1 190
- Played very well in coverage as a slot corner
- 30.1 passer rating in the slot
S Sherrod Covil
- 5-11 200
- Played most snaps vs FAU, 4 missed tackles
S RJ Mickens
- 6-0 210
- Started all 7 games to start the season
- Missed the NC State game after appendectomy
- Expected to miss the ND game
- Playmaker, one of the top tacklers on the team
- Great instincts
CB Sheridan Jones
- 6-0 190
- 5th year player
- Lack of ball production over the years
- Good run defender, good tackler
CB Toriano Pride Jr.
- 5-11 190
- played most snaps vs Wake, finished with 3 PBUs
- Missed tackle on a 3rd down slant led to 72-yard house call
CB Jeadyn Lukas
- 6-2 200
- Tough freshman year, much better as a soph
- 25 yard tuddy given up vs FSU’s Keon Coleman, jump ball
CB Nate Wiggins
- 6-2 185
- Long, great athlete
- 4.40 40
- Good ball skills
- Not a great run defender
- Maybe the best corner ND has faced outside of practice
- 12 PBUs in ‘22
- 0 catches allowed on 4 targets vs FSU
Key for Notre Dame
Don’t shy away from the physical challenge
Notre Dame has to find a way to get those explosive plays from Chris Tyree and company to put points on the board and they have to challenge Clemson physically like they did last season.
They’ll be prepared for it, but last year Clemson’s defense quit when they had the ball run down their throats. They will come out inspired, but Notre Dame has to try and make them quit in the fourth quarter again.
Special Teams
Clemson is 111th in SF+ and they’ve had two kicks blocked this season.
K Jonathan Weitz is 5 of 8 with a long of 41. Field goal kicking has been a serious issue for them.
P Aidan Swanson has averaged 44.8 per punt.
Tyler Brown is a good punt returner and Shipley was as well, but don’t expect him to be available.
Kickoff man Robert Gunn III has booted 89.9% of his kickoffs for touchbacks.
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