Scouting Report | Stanford
Troy Taylor took over a two-win team at Sacramento State and immediately turned them around. They won nine games in his first season and established themselves as FCS playoff fixtures. They made the playoffs in each of his three full seasons there, with a 12-1 record in his final year.
Taking over the Stanford job was a much more difficult proposition.
Though they have 15 players who were 4-star recruits on their roster, there’s maybe one future NFL player who is an upperclassman. The roster was decimated during the final years of the David Shaw era with several players leaving for the NFL or to start at other Power 5 programs. With the admission restrictions at the school, he wasn’t going to have any quick fixes either.
Even though they are going to take some time to rebuild, it looks like they’ve got the right guy in place to do that job. They have less talent, but are way more modern with their schemes and will just need time to get the pieces in place. They had a massive comeback victory against Colorado after being down 29-0 at halftime and somehow beat Washington State 10-7. I don’t believe they win those games if Shaw is the coach.
Notre Dame should be plenty motivated to prove a point against them after what happened last season, but this Stanford team is much different than that one. That one had five NFL Draft picks and 11 other players on the roster who are currently starting for other Power 5 programs.
This team is young and filled with players who are playing roles they aren’t quite ready for yet. It’s a big reason why they are 115th in penalty yards per game.
Stanford is 131st in net scoring per drive and it’s a bottom tier roster in comparison to other Power 5 programs.
Offense
I’ll say this: Stanford is a lot more fun on offense than they have been in years. They do a lot with a little.
They run a ton of formations, use a ton of pre-snap motion, use the quarterback a lot in the run game, and make defenses prepare for a lot of different looks.
That’s all true, but they are who they are right now when it comes to talent. They are 91st in OF+, 96th in points per drive, and 111th in yards per play.
They lost receiver John Humphreys early in the season and lost their best player, tight end Benjamin Yurosek, halfway through the season. Yurosek is that aforementioned upperclassman who should be an NFL Draft pick.
Expected Strengths
They are able to scheme up opportunities to make plays because of everything they do with formations. That’s part of the reason why they are middle of the pack in terms of explosive passing plays (58th in 20+ yard receptions).
The two quarterbacks are both guys who can break tackles. They have a combined 29 missed forced tackles and the two have 16 rushes of 10+ yards.
Elic Ayomanor had a Notre Dame offer as a recruit and has had a breakout season on the boundary. He had 294 yards to help them comeback to beat Colorado and has emerged as one of the best big play threats in the country. Their offense heavily revolves around targeting him.
Potential Weaknesses
Woof, it’s a long list.
The line has been flat out bad. They have been forced to play a bunch of true and redshirt freshmen up front. They are 118th in PFF’s pass block grade, 107th in EPA (expected points added) per dropback, and starting QB Ashton Daniels has been pressured on 46.1% of his dropbacks.
42.6% of pressure has come from the left side of the line, but they really aren’t strong at any position.
They are 100th in sack percentage and 115th in havoc rate against. The passing game is extremely inconsistent and they force the ball into Ayomanor quite a bit hoping he can play the role of Superman. They are 103rd in PFF’s passing grades.
They don’t run the ball well either. They are 108th in run block grade, and 112th in EPA per rush.
Stanford isn’t much better situationally. They are 98th in Eckel rate, which means they don’t get many scoring opportunities. They are 119th in points per Eckel, which means they don’t take advantage of their opportunities.
Unsurprisingly, they are also bad on 3rd down. The are 91st in 3rd down conversion percentage.
Personnel notes
QB Ashton Daniels
- 6-2 215
- 5 fumbles
- 77th in ESPN’s QBR
- 5 INTs on 3rd down, one of the lowest rated passers in the country
- hand injury forced him to leave the Oregon St game
- Used in the run game, a good athlete
- 5.2 YPC on designed runs 15 missed tackles forced
- Above average arm, inconsistent accuracy
QB Justin Lamson
- 6-2 215
- Syracuse transfer
- 6 fumbles
- 130th in ESPN’s QBR
- Used primarily as a runner
- 43.9% completions
- Frequent scrambler when first read isn’t there
- Use him on short yardage -
14 missed tackles forced
RB Casey Filkins
- 5-11 206
- Runs tough, not shifty
- Injured, did not play vs Cal
RB EJ Smith
- 6-0 210
- Returning from an ACL injury
- Only two runs of 10+ yards since the middle of September
- 26 catches, 8 vs Cal
- Cal played two high and a lot of checkdowns
- Got some burst, but hasn’t had much room to work with
RB Sedrick Irvin Jr.
- 5-10 190
- True freshman, former ND commit
- Broke a bunch of tackles for 45-yard run vs Arizona
WR Elic Ayomanor
- 6-2 210
- Big time playmaker
- Win contested, 24 contested targets
- Strong after the catch, 33.8% of the YAC is from him
- 9 receptions of 30+ yards
- 8 since October, tied for most in the country
- Carried them to comeback win over Colorado, dominated matchup with Travis Hunter
- built the offense around, 66 targets in the last 6 games
WR Bryce Farrell
- 5-10 190
- 22 catches, 18 carries
- Used on jet sweeps
- 42 targets, little production
WR Tiger Bachmeier
- 6-1 190
- True freshman
- 10 for 95 vs Washington
- 58 targets is second on the team
- Got some juice, make something after the catch with space
- 41 yard deep ball vs Cal, big time diving catch
TE Sam Roush
- 6-5 242
- Become the featured TE with Yurosek out
- 30 targets in the last five games
- Has had at least one reception of 15+ every one of those games
- Key player vs Wazzu, 7 catches
- Emerging as a contested catch guy, can move after the catch
RT Connor McLaughin
- 6-7 295
- First-year starter
- Couldn’t block Washington’s edges
- Gave up multiple pressures in six games
- 4 pressures vs Cal
LT Fisher Anderson
- 6-6 294
- Had a 0.0 PFF in three games -
2 sacks, 7 pressures against UCLA
LT Luke Baklenko
- 6-6 295
- true freshman
- started last 3 games
- Not ready to play, but no choice
- 9 pressures allowed vs Oregon St and Washington
- 5 pressures against Cal
LG Trevor Mayberry
- 6-3 315
- Penn transfer
- Has struggled to adjust to a higher level
RG Simione Pale
- 6-4 315
- True freshman
- 5 starts at RG
- In over his head, not ready to play yet
- 25 snaps vs Cal, had trouble in pass pro
RG Jake Maikkula
- 6-5 290
- Started last 4 games
- RS frosh, more bad than good
- Didn’t play well vc Cal
C Levi Rogers
- 6-4 301
- One constant up front
- Been solid, their best OL
Key for Notre Dame
Contain the quarterback, limit Ayomanor
If they aren’t moving the chains with the quarterback run game or scrambles, they will have a tough time producing first downs.
If they aren’t getting big plays from Ayomanor, they aren’t a very explosive offense.
The matchup with Ben Morrison and Ayomanor should be a good one. BMo has to win as many 50/50 balls as possible.
Defense
Bobby April III was on Wisconsin’s staff from 2018-2022 coaching outside linebackers and his position group was extremely productive. Before that he was in the NFL and he had all of the qualifications to be a good coordinator.
He’s running a similar system to what Jim Leonhard ran at Wisconsin. Unfortunately for him, he doesn’t have the material to work with right now and they’re even worse on defense than they were last season.
As a reminder, Notre Dame lost to the Cardinal last season because ND’s quarterback missed open throws when he had a clean pocket. It wasn’t because Stanford’s defense was very good.
They are 112th in DF+, 122nd in YPP, and 129th in points per drive. They’ve given up over 40 points in six of nine Pac-12 games.
They play a ton of zone coverage and don’t have the athletes to match up across the board.
Expected Strengths
I think it says all you need to know is that their biggest strength is that they still play hard despite being bad.
Potential Weaknesses
They lack playmakers at all three levels of the defense. They don’t have NFL talent and there isn’t a single player who is playing at an all-conference level.
They are 133rd in havoc rate. Yep, that’s dead last. They have only forced one fumble all season.
Stanford is 129th in pass rush grade, 122nd in EPA per dropback, and 130th in coverage grade. They are 112th in 20+ yard receptions allowed. It all melds together in a disastrous way.
They aren’t much better at stopping the run. They are undersized up front and are 99th in EPA per rush. They’re 123rd in Eckel rate and 131st in points per Eckel. We always hear about complimentary football and their defense compliments their offense in all of the wrong ways.
They are 132nd in 3rd down conversion percentage and they give up an average of 25.2 first downs per game. That’s dead last.
It’s a whole pile of yuck all around.
Personnel notes
Edge David Bailey
- 6-3 245
- 8.5 TFLs last season
- 20.53mph on the GPS -
5 sacks
- Decreased role, dropped to a rotation player
- 20.5% win rate vs true pass sets
- Mostly in the game for pass rush purposes, but plays hybrid position
Edge Tevarua Tafiti
- 6-2 235
- 6 havoc plays
- Role has increased during the season, improved vs the run
- 17 of 19 pressures have come in last 6 games
- high motor, raw as a pass rusher
- Hybrid player who drops in coverage about 50% of the time
- Has taken snaps away from Bailey
Edge Wilfredo Aybar
- 6-2 252
- Wins with twitch
- Multiple pressures in 5 of last 6 games
- Not a good run defender
Edge Lancey Kenelly
- 6-4 250
- Average traits
- Best game vs Cal, 3 pressures and a sack
DT Pat Caughey
- 6-5 264
- 3-tech
- RS frosh who has added quite a bit of weight, but can’t physically match up
DT Jaxson Moi
- 6-2 303
- Nose
- Struggled to hold up vs Cal and teams with good OLs
DT Anthony Franklin
- 6-3 281
- Flashed against bad teams, 19 pressures vs Hawaii, Sac St, Colorado, and Wazzu
- Overmatched against above average lines
- Fireplug
DT Tobin Phillips
- 6-3 295
- Gets moved in the run game -
Active, sack vs Cal
LB Gaethan Bernadel
- 6-1 227
- FIU transfer
- Leads team in tackles
- Blitz him frequently, only 5.5 havoc plays
- 12 of 22 pressures came against Hawaii and Sac St
- Struggled when teams run at him
LB Spencer Jorgenson
- 6-3 233
- Not a great coverage player
- Below average player
LB Tristan Sinclair
- 6-1 221
- Extreme boom or bust player
- Brings violence, but not instinctive
- Missed 19.8% of tackles, takes bad angles
- Targeting penalty vs Cal rescinded
- Flashes the most out of any second or third level defender
S Scotty Edwards
- 6-0 205
- First-year starter
- 2 INTS
- Missed the Cal game with an injury
S Mitch Leigber
- 6-1 202
- Played his most snaps in last two games with Gilman out
- Sack against Wazzu
- 4 missed tackles vs Cal
- Attack him if matched up in the slot
S Alaka’i Gilman
- 5-9 194
- Missed the Oregon St and Cal games with an injury
- Physical player, limited athlete in coverage
S Omari Porter
- 6-2 205
- Barely played this season, 87 snaps vs Cal
- Solid vs the run
- motion got him matched up with a WR in the slot, cooked for 54 yards on a post
Nickel Jshawn Frausto-Ramos
- 6-0 184
- True freshman
- Increased role in 2nd half of the season
- Hasn’t found the football
- Picked on by Cal, 7 catches, 5 1st downs
Nickel Jaden Slocum
- 6-1 200
- Benched since UCLA game
- Giving up 18.2 per reception and 156.3 NFL passer rating
CB Collin Wilson
- 6-0 192
- Cooked for big plays, but competes hard
- Given up explosives in six games
CB Zahran Manley
- 6-2 189
- Grabby
- poor tackler, missed over 30% of tackling opportunities
- given up 234 yards after the catch
Key for Notre Dame
Be efficient
If an offense is able to stay on schedule, the big plays are going to come because they have deficiencies at too many positions. They have too many defenders who have trouble matching up against better players.
Special Teams
K Joshua Karty is one of the top kickers in the country. He’s made 20 of 23 attempts with two of his misses from beyond 50.
He’s made 35 of his last 38 field goal attempts. He also made a 61-yarder last season and has made three kicks over 50-yards in 2023.
P Aidan Flintoft has taken over the job after splitting it earlier in the season. He’s averaging 42.8 yards per punt.
Farrell is the main returner and he’s just a guy back there.
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