6 Thoughts on a Thursday

Hopeful Notre Dame fans were anticipating Sam Hartman being a Heisman candidate this fall. Even the most pessimistic fans knew he’d be an upgrade over what the Irish had at quarterback in 2022. There is no argument that he hasn’t been that.

He was considered the top prize of all the transfer portal quarterbacks in 2023 and although he hasn’t been a top-10 quarterback in college football this season, he has been much better than most transfers at the position. Hartman is 20th in ESPN’s QBR. The only 2023 quarterback transfer who is ranked higher is Oregon State’s DJ Uiagalelei (12th).

Uiagalelei was seen as a reclamation project. He was a highly ranked recruit who was stuck in a bad situation at Clemson. In the right one, he’s been very good for the Beavers. It’s not that dissimilar from Michael Penix Jr. at Washington. Reunited with Kalen DeBoer, he has thrived as one of the top players at the position in the country. No one was projecting that for him after his career was on the downslide at Indiana.

Looking at the quarterbacks available from the ‘23 transfer portal, it hasn’t exactly been stellar results for that group. Outside of Hartman and Uiagalelei, the hit rate hasn’t been good. No one is raving about Graham Mertz, Jack Plummer, Brennan Armstrong, Devin Leary, and Jeff Sims.

The reason why I’m pointing this out is because Notre Dame is about to go back into the portal this off-season. There is no guarantee that they can find someone as good as Hartman, but it still makes sense for them to try and add a player there.

Going into the season with three scholarship quarterbacks isn’t the worst thing, but starting an offseason with three is less than ideal. All it takes is one quarterback, whether its Steve Angeli, Kenny Minchey, or CJ Carr, to separate from the others and three can become two very quickly.

And going into a season with two scholarship quarterbacks is a disaster.

Having four gives Notre Dame some security. One can leave after the spring, much like Tyler Buchner did, and they still have some security. That’s why pursuing a fourth makes a lot of sense.

Who that fourth will be is anyone’s guess right now.

Two of the top potential options won't be options for anyone. Utah’s Cam Rising looks like he is returning to Utah his seventh(!) year. Tulane’s Michael Pratt has already accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl, which means he is preparing to enter the NFL Draft. Not that either of these two were guaranteed hits, but plenty of programs would have loved to add them.

I don’t even know if it’s possible to speculate as to who might be available. Duke’s Riley Leonard is a popular candidate right now, but what if Mike Elko stays? It seems likely he would stick around there as well.

Is there anyone who would be excited about Texas’ Maalik Murphy being available with Ewers deciding to stay at Texas?

Someone who has put up prolific numbers at a lower level or at a group of 5 program might sound like an intriguing possibility, but while there have been plenty of success stories of skill players moving up to the Power 5 and having success, there are less than a few examples of a quarterback making the jump with great results. (The only one that comes to mind in the last decade is Vernon Adams when he transferred from Eastern Washington to Oregon.)

I know some have suggested that Notre Dame should try to add a veteran backup who is fine with being just that, but that isn’t much different than signing Ronnie Powlus to a scholarship to essentially be a career practice player. Having someone like that to always be available sounds good in theory, but there are reasons why we don’t see that scenario at programs around the country.

If Notre Dame is going to add someone, they need to try and add the best player possible. They should also try and find someone who doesn’t have to make the type of adjustment Hartman had to make with a drastically different scheme.

It may not be possible to find the perfect fit and I’m not overly confident there are going to be great options available for them to recruit, which is why it might not matter who they bring in.

The favorite to start against Texas A&M in 2024 may be on the roster right now, but since they are going to take another swing in the portal, they need to try and hit a home run. Simply aiming to get on base isn’t the way to go.

2. The portal quarterbacks in ‘23 haven’t hit big (at least not yet). There are plenty of ‘22 success stories, though.

Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, Dillon Gabriel, Penix, Caleb Williams, Quinn Ewers, and Jaxon Dart are all ranked in the top-16 in QBR. Other than Williams, each of them have been better in year two at their new programs. That’s pretty amazing to have seven of the top-16 be from that portal class.

I don’t see the ‘24 class being nearly as talented as that group, but the one thing that stands out about those seven is that five of them were ranked as elite recruits.

Ewers and Williams were the top quarterbacks in the 2021 cycle. Dart was a top-100 recruit from that same cycle. Nix and Daniels were the top two quarterbacks in the 2019 cycle. You can throw in Uiagalelei from the ‘23 portal class as well becase he was a 5-star in 2020.

Nix, Daniels, and Uiagalelei were graduate transfers, so if Notre Dame is still forced to only shop down that aisle, it might not be barren. The one thing that stands out about them is that all three of had plenty of snaps before they transferred. They were starters, even if they might have had underwhelming careers before they left.

It’s not exactly the same thing with other former top recruits like Oregon’s Ty Thompson or Georgia Brock Vandagriff, both of whom have yet to start a game at those programs. However, someone like Vandagriff might be one of the best options available from a talent perspective if he chooses to enter the portal. My guess is that he will do so with Georgia’s current starter, Carson Beck, looking like he will stay in school after this season.

If the options seem underwhelming, Vandagriff is someone I would view as someone worth targeting to come in and compete with Notre Dame’s quarterback group. He has dual-threat ability, has looked fairly sharp in mop-up duty, and I loved his ability to improvise when he was a prospect.

With the way Beck has played this season, it doesn’t seem like a huge knock against him that he didn’t win the job at Georgia.

(Disclaimer: this is not a name I’ve heard associated with Notre Dame as a target since I know someone will ask. This is simply me suggesting this is the type of player worth targeting if he plans on transferring.)

3. Notre Dame has had an incredible run at the offensive tackle position.

From Zack Martin to Ronnie Stanley to Mike McGlinchey to Liam Eichenberg to Robert Hainsey to Joe Alt to Blake Fisher, that’s three first round picks and about to be four with Alt. Eichenberg and Hainsey were day two picks and we’ll have to wait and see with Fisher, but he will be drafted as well.

I think the best move for Fisher would be to stay at Notre Dame for another season, but it’s starting to look less likely that it will happen. Some team will take him, but he hasn’t put out anywhere close to first round tape and might not even have day two tape at this point.

It doesn’t matter what I or anyone else thinks. If he leaves, that means Notre Dame will have to replace two starting tackles. They had that same scenario in 2021 and it wasn’t exactly a great situation. By the bowl game it was the two true freshmen, Alt and Fisher, starting.

No matter how talented Guerby Lambert is, it would be a tall task to have him start against Texas A&M’s defensive line in week one next year. While I have seen plenty of potential in the limited amount of opportunities I’ve watched Aamil Wagner and Charles Jagusah, there’s a big difference between going into College Station with those two or other inexperienced options on the roster than going in with Fisher and the over 1,600 snaps he would bring with him into next season.

If Fisher isn’t there, I think they need to try and find an experienced tackle. That may be easier said than done because there’s typically a dearth of good choices on the offensive line in the transfer portal, which USC definitely knows after this season and Deion Sanders should know (even if he hasn’t figured it out yet).

I don’t know if either will be looking for a new opportunity, but Wisconsin’s two starting tackles, Jack Nelson and Riley Mahlman, were both originally coached and recruited by Joe Rudolph. It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing with the transition to Luke Fickell and offensive coordinator Phil Longo. The offense is 81st in OF+ (the combined FEI and SP+ rankings) and they are 6-5 with losses to Indiana and Northwestern.

If either of those two are looking around, the fit makes sense.

4. In terms of recent Notre Dame transfers, Alohi Gilman is at the top of the list in terms of impact. I could argue that Javontae Jean-Baptiste is right behind him at number two.

He’s been a terrific addition to the defense as an every down player and has a top-20 grade amongst Power 5 edge defenders this season.

JJB and Thomas Harper were both really good evaluations from Notre Dame’s staff. Obviously Al Washington knew quite a bit about JJB as a player when he was on staff at Ohio State, but he was never a starter there. There wasn’t a ton of buzz about teams after Harper in the transfer portal last year, but Notre Dame saw someone who could thrive at the nickel.

TaRiq Bracy was going to be difficult to replace. He allowed 0.92 yards per snap last season while in coverage as a slot defender (eigth out of Power 5 corners). Harper was right behind him at 0.94 yards per snap as a slot defender (ninth).

Harper was rarely utilized as a blitzer at Oklahoma State and that’s arguably been the best part of his game for the Irish. He’s fourth out of all Power 5 corners and safeties in PFF’s pass rush production metric. (PRP is a formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times a defender rushes the passer)

JJB leads the team in TFLs. Harper has 10 total havoc plays, tied with Howard Cross for fourth on the team.

One of the main reasons why the defense has played so well this season has been that so many players are in their second year in Al Golden’s system. These two hadn’t played in this defense before this season, though, and have played important roles in making it one of the best in the country.

5. Outside of all the talk about Notre Dame’s offense, who is and who isn’t coming back for next season has dominated the conversation about the program. There’s also players who may choose to opt out of playing in Notre Dame’s bowl game, but I would be a bit surprised if anyone other than Joe Alt and Audric Estime chose to do so.

Even then, Bryce Young and Will Anderson chose to play in Alabama’s bowl game last year and if two of the eventual top three picks in the draft can make that decision, then it wouldn’t surprise me if others did the same.

As much as many dislike the idea of players opting out, it’s certainly not the worst thing to give more players an opportunity in one more game. If it’s not the College Football Playoff, bowl games have become as much about next season as they are about the current one.

Last year Jaylen Sneed had the opportunity to play as a pass rusher against South Carolina. This year we could see the same thing with Boubacar Traore. That’s exciting because I believe Traore has a chance to have a big role on next season’s Notre Dame defense.

I really don’t know what young players, specifically freshmen, that we’ll see more of in a bowl game and it would be great to see one more game of Alt and Estime and every player who has a chance at one last game in a Notre Dame uniform. The alternative is getting an opportunity to see more from players who might replace them. That’s not a bad thing.

I don’t think you could find a Notre Dame fan who wouldn’t be excited to see more of JD Price and Jeremiyah Love on the field.

6. It was surprising that Estime was not even a semi-finalist for the Doak Walker Award as the best back in college football this season.

I think it’s a bit useless to downgrade these other backs because all of these players have put up numbers as well. We can compare the raw numbers and say Estime should be above this or that guy, but it doesn’t really matter. I’m only going to highlight some numbers he put up to show why I believe he should have been included and not why these others shouldn’t be on the list.

Estime has 752 yards after contact this season. That is seventh in the country and is only behind UNC Omarion Hampton, Texas Tech’s Tahj Brooks, and Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon out of the semi-finalists.

His 4.09 yards after contact per carry is sixth in the country and only behind Hampton on that list. (These numbers courtesy of PFF)

Estime is also the only back who played against five defenses that are ranked in the top-25 in DF+ (combined FEI and SP+ rankings). Only one other back among the semi-finalists, Texas’ Jonathan Brooks, has gone up against more than three. Most of the others faced two or less top-25 defenses.

The sad part is that if Notre Dame was 10-1, I’m sure Estime would have been included in that group just like Al Golden would have been a finalist for the Broyles Award as the nation’s top assistant. Chip Long was a finalist in 2018, but he was much more deserving of being one in 2017 when the offense was better. The record for the team was worse.

The way I think Notre Dame fans should look at it is that they’ll still think of Michael Mayer as arguably the best tight end to ever play at Notre Dame despite not winning the Mackey Award and Te’von Coney should be mentioned in the same conversation as Jaylon Smith, Manti Te’o, and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah as one of the best linebackers in college football even though Coney was not a finalist for the Butkus Award.

No Notre Dame feels any different about Zack Martin because he wasn’t named an All-American (which still seems insane) and Quenton Nelson isn’t viewed any differently because he was only a finalist for the Outland Award.

An award doesn’t define how a player should be remembered by the people who actually watched him every game. Those who watched Estime know how great he was this fall.

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