6 Thoughts on a Thursday

In less than 10 days since the transfer portal opened, Notre Dame’s staff has done a heck of a job addressing roster needs with commitments from five players. All five have the potential to be starters and I couldn’t have said that about the dozen scholarship players who have entered the transfer portal who played for Notre Dame last season.

They still might add a couple more potential starters from the portal, but we’ll have to wait and see. Even if it ended with just these five, this would be the most transfers Notre Dame has had in their two-deep...maybe ever?

All that means is that they are pretty much in line with most programs. Out of the College Football Playoff teams this season, Texas and Alabama have six transfers in their two-deep. Michigan has 10 and Washington has 11. Georgia, who just missed out on the CFP, has four.

The majority of the best programs are built through recruiting and development much like the best teams in the NFL are built through the draft and development. Transfers can help and the right ones can help A LOT, but the foundation is recruiting and development.

The four players who were recognized as first or second team All-Americans for Notre Dame (Xavier Watts, Joe Alt, Howard Cross, and Audric Estime) are examples of that.

It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement of adding transfers and I could see all five of the transfer commitments being very good for Notre Dame.

Riley Leonard does have the potential to be that projected high pick if things fall into place for him with the Irish. RJ Oben could be the same kind of play Javontae Jean-Baptiste was for the Irish at defensive end. Maybe Beaux Collins is primed to have a big year in a more stable offense and maybe Kris Mitchell is this year’s Jamari Thrash or Juice Wells as a former small school speedster who becomes a Power 5 playmaker. Jordan Clark is a scheme fit who could have a similar impact that Thomas Harper had in the nickel as well.

It’s not likely that it’s going to work out that well for all of them, but it did work out that well for JJB and Harper last season.

Those transfers will be important, but it’s even more important for Jaden Greathouse and Jayden Thomas to be healthy at receiver and continue to develop into the players they can be. It’s important for returning stars like Cross and Ben Morrison to continue to ascend and have others do the same with more opportunities.

Jeremiyah Love might just be the best player on offense next season for the Irish. He’s only scratching the surface of the player he can become at Notre Dame. No one should forget about Mitchell Evans who was having a great season before his knee injury. When he’s healthy, he could end up being the best tight end in the nation in 2024.

The majority of the best players on the team have to be players who were already on the roster in 2023. I expect that to be the case. Even with the ability to fill in gaps on the roster with transfers, the core is going to be built from within and the Irish will go as far as they can carry them.

2. The outlier from the contenders in terms of transfers is Florida State.

They have 19 transfers in their two-deep and no one can argue with the results.

Their top four receivers are transfers. Their leading rusher is a transfer. Three starting offensive linemen are transfers. Even their star quarterback was a transfer. Jordan Travis originally started out at Louisville. FSU hit big on a bunch of these players.

From their offense, WR Keon Coleman, WR Michael Wilson, TE Jaheim Thomas, and RB Trey Benson are going to play on Sundays next season. DE Jared Verse might be one of the top edge rushers off the board in the NFL Draft and DT Braden Fiske has played his way into being an NFL Draft pick in his sixth-year. I don’t know if they’ll hit that big again on that many guys because no one has hit that big on that number of transfer players.

I’m not sure if the success they had this season is sustainable for them either because 1) they have to do it again with some transfers because of the ones who won’t be there in ‘24 and 2) they really only started to recruit at a high level again in the 2023 and 2024 cycles. FSU signed only 10 blue-chip recruits combined in the 2021 and 2022 cycles and five of them are no longer with the program.

Maybe FSU has the magic formula with transfers and they certainly haven’t been afraid to put resources into landing talent there. But I look at programs like Florida, LSU, and USC and see how the heavy reliance on the portal hasn’t worked out for them at all. It’s been bad on defense.

Florida finished 71st in DF+ (combined FEI and SP+ defensive rankings). LSU finished 88th and USC finished 100th.

Florida has four transfers starting on their defense, LSU has five (nine in their two-deep), and USC has six (14 in their two-deep!). They didn’t hit big like FSU and their defenses were straight up bad.

There were 22 defenders who played 100 snaps or more on defense for Notre Dame this past season. JJB and Harper were the only transfers. I don’t think I’m going out on a limb with the notion that one of the reasons Notre Dame was great on defense was that they recruited and developed much better than those other three. They were bad and had too many holes to fill and not enough answers within their own the roster.

3. Jack Kiser coming back was one of those low key announcements that is probably a lot more important than most would think.

It’s going to be a young linebacker room and having a veteran who has played in the defense for multiple seasons is valuable. Having him as a mentor for those guys is important. Having his experience playing all three linebacker positions is important. Having someone who has made plays in big moments (think the 4th down stop against Ohio State this season) is important.

I’m not even certain Kiser will be a starter or if he’ll split playing time with another player at an inside linebacker position next fall. At bare minimum he’ll ensure that young linebackers Drayk Bowen, Jaiden Ausberry, Jaylen Sneed, Preston Zinter, or Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa will have to earn playing time and not have it given to them.

Kiser being there makes all of those young players accountable and gives Notre Dame someone they can rely on at multiple positions.

4. I understand why some fans don’t feel confident about Leonard being a great quarterback for Notre Dame. I think a lot of people who fall into that camp are jaded by what happened with Sam Hartman because he didn’t live up to the expectations of many.

It’s apples to avocados to compare the two, though. They are different players with different skill sets and at different stages of their careers.

Hartman started over twice the amount of games that Leonard has. Hartman also played with better receivers in a completely different offense than the one Duke ran.

There is a scenario where Leonard, 28th in ESPN’s QBR during the 2022 season, makes a leap at Notre Dame and becomes a top-15 quarterback in 2024 before eventually being one of the top quarterbacks in the 2025 NFL Draft. That’s obviously the best case scenario.

There is also a scenario where Leonard doesn’t win the starting job at Notre Dame. I would say that’s very unlikely, but it could happen.

Another scenario is something I’ve talked about the last couple of weeks. That’s the Brandon Wimbush vs Michigan in 2018 scenario.

Wimbush started against Michigan because they thought they were going to need his legs to win that game against a very good defense. They did need them and he did win the game. He rushed 59 yards, which led the team, and finished with QBR of 84.1 (out of 100).

Ian Book ultimately took over the job and maybe the Irish would have beat Michigan with him starting, but one thing we know is that they wouldn’t have made the CFP in 2018 if they didn’t beat Michigan. Starting Wimbush rather than making that Book’s first home start in that type of game worked out well.

That’s one possible scenario with Leonard. He’s someone who has started and won big games. He beat Clemson to open last season and had a 91.4 QBR against one of the top defenses in the country.

Sure, he had a miserable time throwing the football against Notre Dame’s defense (there were many members of that club), but he also brought Duke back after being down 13-0 to take a lead in the fourth quarter. His passing didn’t get them there, but his eight carries for 62 yards in the second half sure helped.

There’s a long way to go to see how it all plays out. One thing we know right now is that the opener against Texas A&M, however their roster looks in September, is going to be an important game for Notre Dame when it comes to making the CFP. Having Leonard gives them a better chance of winning it.

5. It’s still not entirely clear who will and won’t be playing for Notre Dame and Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.

At the very least, fans can be excited about seeing a lot of players who are going to have bigger roles in this game than they did all season and that could also act as a preview for next year.

This game also is an opportunity for players who didn’t have great seasons to end things on a positive note. I’m thinking of two players specifically: Jayden Thomas and Jordan Botelho.

Both of them didn’t produce as expected largely due to injury. Thomas’ hamstring pretty much shut him down after the Ohio State game. He had 19 targets in the first five games. He had six the rest of the season.

The hope is that he is completely healthy and without a ton of receivers available for Notre Dame, he should get more chances to make plays.

Botelho was beat up this season. If the neck roll he was wearing late in the year didn’t give it away, the lack of explosion with his first step should have been another obvious sign. Maybe the time off is able to allow him to be closer to the player he was a year ago.

Everyone wants to see the new guys in the bowl game. It would be nice to see the older guys looking like the older versions of themselves.

6. I have no idea what to expect from Notre Dame’s offensive line in the Sun Bowl.

I know inevitably someone will ask me to predict who is going to start on the offensive line in College Station next September at some point over the next few months. It’s not quite the same as asking me to predict lottery numbers, but there is so much time between now and then and so many variables that it doesn’t feel far off from that.

That uncertainty doesn’t exactly scream Joe Moore Award finalist in 2024, but the best offensive lines aren’t always built like the one the Irish had in 2020. That one featured every starter returning from the previous season with two fifth-year players, two fourth-year players, and one third-year player. They were a finalist for the best offensive line in college football.

The finalists for the award from this past season are built a bit differently.

Georgia played seven linemen this season with one in his second season and three in their third seasons. LSU had two of their five starters who were in their second seasons. Oregon played a true freshman, one sophomore, and two more in their third year. Washington had one true freshman and one true sophomore play for them this season up front.

The rest of those lines were composed of players who were in year four to six in college.

I’m not brushing aside that players who are entering year four like Rocco Spindler or Pat Coogan won’t be important for Notre Dame. If it’s mostly young guys across the board, it’s not the best situation for an offensive line. That’s why I can’t imagine the staff not continuing to try and find an experienced offensive tackle who can play in the transfer portal.

With all of that being said, the greatest offensive linemen for the Irish the last 15 years have all been good enough to play when they were young. Zack Martin, Ronnie Stanley, Quenton Nelson, Joe Alt, Blake Fisher, Tommy Kraemer, Robert Hainsey, Aaron Banks, and Jarrett Patterson were all members of the 200 snap club as sophomores. That’s a pretty impressive group and they are about to be joined by Billy Schrauth (196) and Ashton Craig (177).

They’ll need some young players to play next season. A sophomore like Charles Jagusah or maybe even a freshman from this class they are about to sign is very likely going to have become a starter or key reserve for them.

The thing about Notre Dame is that the offensive line room is filled with a bunch of guys that were blue-chip recruits. They will have players capable of being included with those greats I just listed.

I think it’s too soon to be worried about the offensive line for next season or to even overreact to what we see from the offensive line in this game, either good or bad. Things will work themselves out up front and Notre Dame has enough talent to find the right combination of players to succeed there. Just don’t ask me to predict who the combination will be until we get to next summer.

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