6 Thoughts on a Thursday

I’m not a subscriber to the phrase “Vegas always knows” when it comes to gambling on football, but they are more often right than wrong.

When a sportsbook sets a line, they aren’t just throwing darts hoping to hit something. The house doesn’t always win, but they win more than they lose and when it comes to college football, they are pretty darn good when it comes to predicting win totals.

We got a chance to look at some win totals this week for Power 4 conference teams and Notre Dame. Unsurprisingly, the total for the Irish was set at 10.5.

There’s a couple of reasons why that number is what it is. The first is that Notre Dame should have a very good football team. The second is that they have a schedule that sets up well for them to take advantage of being a good football team.

That’s why they are one of only five programs with a total set at over 10 games along with Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas.

One of Notre Dame’s opponents this fall, Florida State, is right behind them at 9.5. There are two others who aren’t listed here who are at 8.5: Texas A&M and Louisville. USC’s total is 7.5 and then it drops off from there to Georgia Tech (5.5), Virginia (4.5), Purdue (4.5), and Stanford (3.5).

To put all of that into perspective, Notre Dame may not play a team who ends up winning 10 games in the regular season and out of these Power 4 teams, they might only face four or five teams who get to .500. That doesn’t mean this season will be a cakewalk or that they might not lose to a team who isn’t as good as them. But it’s weird to think about them not facing at least one team who I would consider to be in the top tier this season. (FSU and A&M could end up there, but it’s not likely)

The schedule in 2021 was a huge reason why that team, with all of its flaws, managed to win 11 games. Even that season featured a Cincinnati team who made the College Football Playoff and had five day one or two NFL Draft picks on the roster. I don’t think any team the Irish will play this season will be as good as that Bearcats team in ‘21.

Games aren’t played on paper or by inputting numbers into spreadsheets, so they have to go out and get it done. However, this 2024 Notre Dame team should be a lot better than the team they had in ‘21. If that team could win 11 games, it’s not hard to imagine the over hitting on that 10.5.

2. Earlier in the week I wrote about what boxes need to be checked in order to win a championship in the CFP era and I wanted to expand a little bit on that here.

Checking all of the boxes (or checking all but one of them) doesn’t guarantee a championship. It just means you are championship worthy.

Out of all the teams in the FBS last season, one other team was in the same league as Michigan. That was Georgia, who had a squad that was good enough to win a third straight national championship. Unfortunately, they lost to Alabama in the SEC Championship game and didn’t get a chance to play in the CFP. They checked every box with the exception of Havoc rate (16.7%).

Georgia was the only one who checked all but one box in 2022 and they won the CFP.

Georgia checked every box in 2021 and Alabama, who beat UGA in the SEC Championship game but lost in the CFP final, was the only other team who checked all boxes but one that season. (They weren’t a Joe Moore Award semi-finalist)

Here’s where it gets crazy. There were four teams who were worthy champions based on this criteria in 2019. LSU, with maybe the greatest offense in modern college football history, checked every box. They won it all. But Ohio State checked every box as well (they lost a super close semi-final matchup to Clemson). Clemson checked all but one (three future NFL defensive linemen) and so did Alabama (Havoc rate).

Alabama didn’t even make the CFP, but no one came closer to beating LSU that season. They lost to them 46-41.

Clemson in 2018 checked every box when they won the title, but so did the team they beat in the final. Yep, Alabama had a team that was good enough to win it all from 2019-2021. They only won a single championship in those four years.

Being good enough might not be good enough in the end. Hopefully Notre Dame fans aren’t reminded of that like they were a couple of times during the Lou Holtz era.

Although if the CFP existed back then, Notre Dame might have ended up with one or two more championships.

3. ESPN’s Bill Connelly posted his returning production rankings on X (Twitter). Notre Dame is 99th.

What does it mean for them? A whole lot of nothing.

It’s the same for Alabama (100th), Florida State (89th), LSU (64%), Ohio State (56th), and most other blue-blood programs.

What matters for all of these programs are who is gone and who has replaced them. Replacing a starter on the offensive line with a transfer with experience could be a good thing, but Notre Dame could have had some sub-par offensive tackles who were in the portal this spring that make the snap counts look better up front for them. Snap counts are how returning production is measured on the O-line according to Connelly’s formula, but the odds of those players being better than the guys Notre Dame already has already competing on the roster aren’t very good.

The same goes at linebacker where adding a bunch of tackles looks great with returning production, but how many linebackers who were in the portal would be better than the young players on Notre Dame’s roster? The list would be short.

It’s the same at most of these programs. FSU added Marvin Jones Jr. in the portal as an edge and he didn’t have a ton of production at Georgia, but the former elite recruit projects to make an instant impact for the Seminoles.

Connelly acknowledged in this tweet that it’s the extremes that tend to matter with returning production.

My guy Greg Flammang predicted a rough year ahead for Michigan on Hit & Hustle last week. With only 36% production returning (130th) and a mostly new coaching staff, Greg’s very likely going to end up being correct.

It looks like year one at Washington should be a rough one for Jedd Fisch (126th) and his staff. It’s also not an ideal situation for Gerad Parker to take over at Troy either (131st).

The one thing worth monitoring from a Notre Dame perspective is Stanford (second, 85%) and Virginia (sixth, 81%). As their win totals listed above would indicate, neither of these teams are expected to be good this season. I’d probably bet the over for both, though.

With Stanford in particular, it’s still rebuilding mode for Troy Taylor. They aren’t close to where they were during the peak Harbaugh/Shaw years, but Taylor has them headed in the right direction. That 3.5 total has a lot to do with their schedule, where it’s difficult to pick out wins.

I bet they beat a team or two they shouldn’t this fall and it wouldn’t surprise me if they end up qualifying for a bowl game.

4. I mentioned that Georgia, Oregon, Texas, and Ohio State are the other teams with win totals in the double digits, which makes perfect sense because those programs are considered to be the four national championship favorites headed into the season. They also were the four at the top of Conelly’s SP+ projections from back in February.

Those feel like the appropriate teams to compare Notre Dame to heading into the season. I’ll probably do a thorough look at those teams in July, but I decided to look at them specifically on the defensive line and at receiver right now.

I had that on my mind after thinking about the importance of defensive line talent (at least three future NFL Draft picks) and receiver (at least one day one or day two picks) to national championship rosters in the CFP era. I

n terms of blue-chip recruits or blue-chip transfers (when ranked as transfers and not as recruits) on their current rosters, Notre Dame is right there with these four on the defensive line. Georgia has 15, Oregon has 15, Notre Dame has 14, Ohio State has 13, and Texas has 12.

In terms of draft-eligible talent on the D-line and overall depth, Ohio State would be at the top of the list, but the difference between them, UGA, UO, and ND isn’t that big. Texas is probably a notch below all of them.

It might shock some people that Notre Dame is pretty much right there in terms of total number of blue-chips with these teams. Oregon has 10, Ohio State and Texas both have eight, Notre Dame has seven, and Georgia has six.

Every single one of these programs has had issues with receivers transferring out. This isn’t just a Notre Dame problem.

If we get into draft-eligible talent or five-stars, then there is an obvious gap with Ohio State, Oregon, and Texas clearly above Notre Dame and Georgia. Oregon and Texas also have benefited greatly from some transfer portal additions with the Ducks adding former 5-star Evan Stewart and Texas adding blue-chip transfers Isaiah Bond (Alabama), Matthew Golden (Houston), and Silas Bolden (Oregon State).

Notre Dame helped themselves in the portal at the position, but not at that level. The underclassmen at receiver playing themselves into top NFL prospects might be the most important development that could happen on offense for them this season.

5. Just for the fun of it, I looked at the USC’s defensive line and receivers and where things stand with them compared to those five programs.

The Trojans have five blue-chips on the roster at receiver. Zachariah Branch, Duce Robinson, and Makai Lemon were all ranked in the top-50 as recruits, but they better be ready to step up and lead the way as sophomores. They also better stay healthy because the depth at the position is a serious concern. They added three transfers in the portal, but none of them are expected to be more than role players.

They have seven blue-chips on the defensive line, but three of those are true freshmen. Depth is again a major problem and that’s going to be tough because their best players will be asked to play a heavy amount of snaps.

And I know I wasn't comparing offensive line talent, but they have only five blue-chips on the offensive line on the roster and things don’t look super rosy going forward. If this was year one of Lincoln Riley, those numbers would make a lot more sense.

He’s entering year three and doesn’t have a roster that looks anywhere close to competing for a national championship.

6. Playing Texas A&M in primetime to open the season seemed like an inevitability. ESPN/ABC made it official this week.

College Gameday will be there and with it being the first game of the Mike Elko era in College Station, the atmosphere should be electric.

None of that is good for Notre Dame.

Okay, some of it’s good. Being the featured game in primetime in week one is one of the reasons why Notre Dame is Notre Dame. The bad part is them not being able to ease into things.

There will be nothing easy about a young offensive going up against what should be a fierce pass rush. Notre Dame fans will be thinking about all of their struggles on the road last season. I can’t help but think about some of those road openers that Notre Dame had a tough time with in year’s past as well.

It was a struggle for them to move the ball against Ohio State in 2022 to open the season. Notre Dame survived more than succeeded when they played FSU and Louisville to begin the 2021 and 2019 seasons respectively. Everyone would love to forget losing to what turned out to be a bad Texas team in 2016 too.

Maybe this 2024 Notre Dame team bucks the trend and makes a statement on the road to kick things off. It’s certainly possible. Wouldn’t it be great if the road part of this game was taken off the table, though?

I guess the idea behind the scheduling is about getting that home and home with a bigger opponent. I don’t understand why Notre Dame hasn’t decided to turn the opener into an annual Shamrock Series game every year at a neutral site, though.

The opponent can be whoever they want it to be and the event can still be a big deal. It would be a lot smarter to do it this way, much like the way Alabama had things set up under Nick Saban.

Alabama opened the season against Clemson in 2008…at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. They played Virginia Tech at the same location the next season. They played Michigan in week one in 2012 at Jerry World in Arlington before following it up at the Georgia Dome against Virginia Tech again the following year.

Over the next six years they played West Virginia, Wisconsin, USC, Florida State, Louisville, and Duke as their openers and all of those games were at a neutral site. They never had to face a road test in week one like Notre Dame has had to.

Having the experience of playing in that type of game in a road stadium could be invaluable down the road for several young players. Dealing with adverse situations can be really good for a football team. It’d be better for those adverse situations to not happen in the first game of the season, though, which is why I hope there are more matchups at places like Lambeau Field against Wisconsin in 2026 than true road games like this one.

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