Notre Dame Opponent Preview | Louisville
I don’t think anyone had doubts that Jeff Brohm was a good football coach. I think people had doubts that Brohm could break away from what helped make him a successful coach.
He has consistently relied on a pass-happy offense to put up points and stuck with that through his first two coaching stops at Western Kentucky and Purdue. It was surprising to see him lean on the running game and defense to win in year one at Louisville, but the results proved he was correct in doing so.
The Cardinals won 10 games, they started out 10-1, and made it to the ACC Championship game. Both of those were firsts since they made the jump to the ACC in 2014.
He remade the roster by bringing in 25 transfers for his first season. It worked so well that he brought in another 30 this offseason. We’ve seen it work out really well one year and then fail the next, but even if they don’t have as much success with the portal this time around, they are bringing back some core pieces on defense that should help them be good again in 2024.
Notre Dame will be looking to avenge their disappointing defeat from last season. Louisville will be traveling to South Bend this time around and it will be the Cardinals first road game. The offense was much worse on the road than at home last season (imagine that?), scoring 14 points less per game.
Post-Spring SP+ Ranking
They are 28th in the post-spring SP+ projections. They are 57th on offense, 23rd on defense, and 64th on special teams.
Key losses
They’ll have a new quarterback this fall. QB Jack Plummer is out of eligibility and Brohm did a great job of not asking him to do things he couldn’t do.
They had three skill position players drafted this spring. WR Jamari Thrash (5th round), RB Jawhar Jordan (6th round), and RB Isaac Guerendo (4th round) were the three most important players on offense for them.
Thrash was WR1. Jordan and Guerendo had 1,128 and 810 yards rushing respectively while combining for 24 touchdowns. They were big plays threats with 29 rushes of 15+ yards between the two.
They lost starting center Byran Hudson (1st team All-ACC) and both starting tackles up front.
CB Jarvis Brownlee (5th round) was a quality cover guy for them and in addition to him, they have to replace S Cam’ron Kelly and CB Storm Duck.
Edge Stephon Herron provided another pass rushing presence and he’s out of eligibility.
WR Kevin Coleman (Mississippi State) and WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce (South Carolina) were their third and fourth leading receivers, but decided to transfer out to other programs. They may have ultimately upgraded from them in the portal, but the fact that both ended up in the SEC is proof enough that they can play.
DT Jeffery Clark (Arizona State) was in the rotation inside for them and S Josh Minkins (Cincinnati) was another key backup who played over 200 snaps.
The roster looked a lot stronger during the spring, but it got significantly weaker after it. They were hurt as much as any program with spring portal defections.
The big one on offense was RB Penny Boone (UCF). He transferred in and was getting reps with the ones in the spring. He was the offensive player of the year in the MAC in 2023 at Toledo.
Edge Tyler Baron (Miami) and S Wesley Walker (Michigan) were two others who transferred in and left after the spring. Walker had 25 career starts in his career at Georgia Tech and Tennessee. Baron was a proven pass rusher who also was at Tennessee last season. I don’t know if the checks didn’t clear for them or what, but they were seen as significant additions to the roster.
They also lost two returner starters from last year’s defense after the spring. LB Jaylin Alderman (Miami) and DT Jermayne Lole (Texas) were coveted by several teams when they entered the portal.
That’s five potential starters out the door who were expected to be there in the fall. Baron and Boone specifically were seen as massive gets at the time when they picked Louisville.
Key additions
Brohm went to the portal again to find a replacement at quarterback. QB Tyler Shough (Texas Tech) started out at Oregon, but has had a career filled with ups and downs. Most of that is because of injuries.
He only played in four games last season and played in only 15 games in three years at Texas Tech. Sometimes you’d say it’s just bad luck, but he’s had multiple broken bones. When he’s healthy, he’s a good athlete with a solid arm talent, but he’s been average the last few years throwing 20 touchdowns against 11 picks. His accuracy has been spotty as well.
WR Caullin Lacy (South Alabama) put up monster numbers in the Sun Belt. He had 18 receptions of 20+ yards and 91 catches for 1,316 yards is noteworthy in any league. Lacy went for Okie 5 for 104 when they played Oklahoma State as well.
His advanced stats were impressive too. The 5-10 slot receiver was second in yards after the catch per route run.
He led the country in YAC, was tied for fourth in YAC per reception, and he’s been listed as 1st team All-ACC by Phil Steele heading into the season.
WR Ja’Corey Brooks (Alabama) averaged 17.3 yards per catch in 2022 with eight touchdowns when Bryce Young was throwing him the football. The former blue-chip prospect was the second leading receiver for Alabama that season. A shoulder injury in 2023 limited him to only three catches for 30 yards, but he did play in nine games. I
f he’s close to the player he was in ‘22, then Louisville just added a nice one-two punch at receiver.
RB Donald Chaney (Miami) is a former blue-chip recruit who averaged 5.1 yards per carry last season. He had a good spring and is the probable starter for them.
TE Mark Redman (San Diego State) had 38 catches last season and was named 2nd team All-Mountain West. They also added TE Jaleel Skinner (Miami), a skinny move tight end who was ranked as a blue-chip recruit as well. They got very little production out of the tight end position last season, but that should change.
LT Monroe Mills (Texas Tech) was a two-year starter and was solid in pass pro, but an average run blocker. He’s set to start for them at one tackle spot.
The other spot is a battle between Jonathan Mendoze (Yale) and Rasheed Miller (Georgia Southern). Mendoza is 6-9 and got decent reviews this spring. Miller was second team All-Sun Belt in 2023.
C Pete Nygra (Northern Illinois) played over 1,500 snaps the last two years and appears to be the most likely replacement for Hudson at center. They also brought in Victor Cutler (Ohio State) who didn’t play last season after transferring from Louisiana-Monroe. Notre Dame fans may recall Ohio State’s center giving up numerous pressures against Howard Cross, which is exactly a vote of confidence for someone like Butler.
The most intriguing addition on defense is DT Thor Griffith (Harvard). He was ranked 8th on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List last year. He’s 6-2 320 and had 23 tackles for loss over the last two seasons. He has had elite athletic testing and repped 225 45 times.
Edge Myles Jernigan (Cal) was a spring addition, but he’s not close to a Barron replacement. He was average at Cal with little production.
CB Corey Thornton (UCF) should step in and start for them at corner. He recorded three interceptions and 12 havoc plays in ‘23.
With so many transfers added, they signed a smaller class of high school recruits. It’s not expected that many of them will help this season. Freshman RB Isaac Brown has the best shot of at it. He was an early enrollee who put himself in the mix this spring.
Top returners and returning production
They are 48th in returning production (100th on offense and 8th on defense).
Edge Ashton Gillotte was one of the best defensive linemen in the country last season. It was a coup that they convinced him to stay in school. He can play inside or out and is an All-American candidate.
His 24.7% win rate against true pass sets is very good. He racked up 11 sacks, 17.5 havoc plays, and 58 pressures.
Edge Mason Reiger missed four games, but still contributed nine havoc plays. He was a game wrecker against Notre Dame last season and has star potential.
CB Quincy Riley is one of the top corners in the ACC. He put up double digit havoc plays and only allowed a 37.3 NFL passer rating when targeted last season. Like Gillotte, he was expected to go pro and decided to come back.
S Devin Neal had a team leading four picks. He also had 13 havoc plays and 74 tackles.
Star is their nickel position and Benjamin Perry was a perimeter playmaker for them at that spot with double digit havoc plays. That’s a solid duo back for them and they’ll get S MJ Griffin back as well. He missed the 2023 season, but was a starter in 2022.
Despite losing Alderman, they at least are bringing back LB TJ Quinn. He’s 2nd team All-ACC in this pre-season and led them in tackles last fall.
They’ll be relying on a lot more on the newcomers on offense.
WR Chris Bell is the lone returning player with big time potential. He was second on the team in catches last season. He had a big spring, had some big flashes last season as a deep threat, and he’s 6-2 225 with the ability to stretch the field. He caught 10 of 16 on contested targets.
G Michael Gonzalez was 3rd team All-ACC in 2023 and should provide a steady presence up front.
Two big questions
Can Shough stay healthy?
Trevor Lawrence and Tyler Shough were in the same recruiting class. Lawrence just signed a monster contraction extension in the NFL. Shough is entering year seven in college.
Injuries are the main reason he’s still around. He can’t seem to stay healthy and as previously mentioned, has played in only 15 games over the last three seasons.
Louisville is probably not going to be able to rely on the running game like they did last season and need better quarterback play than they got from Plummer last season. Shough has had stretches in college where he’s been better than that, but it has never been sustained because he has barely been available.
If Shough isn’t playing by the time they get to Notre Dame, redshirt freshman Pierce Clarkson might be the guy. He’s had two career pass attempts heading into this season and inexperienced quarterbacks against Notre Dame’s defense is not a winning combination.
Speaking of defense, can the Louisville defense be as good as last season?
It’s a good bet that they will be close to that level even after losing some projected starters in the transfer portal. They were 16th in pressure rate in 2023 and the pass rush is going to be good again. They won’t get the advantage of playing at home against the Irish this season, but they have the personnel up front and in the secondary to have one of the best pass defenses in the country.
We’ll see if they can be as good against the run (17th in EPA per rush) after losing Lole and Alderman in the middle of their defense.
How they’ve recruited
They’ve only signed 15 blue-chips in the last four recruiting cycles. Only a handful of those are still on campus from the 2021 and 2022 classes.
28 players from their projected two-deep were transfers. Out of the 25 transfers Brohm brought in prior to last season, 17 are already gone from the program. That means they need to have a lot of hits out of the 30 transfers they brought in this year, but five of them are already gone after the spring.
All of this goes against the idea of culture and development that is considered such a significant part of a college football program. At some point this could come back to bite Brohm. It may even be this fall with some of the transfers they’ve added.
There’s enough pieces returning on defense to make Louisville a tough matchup no matter how many hits or misses they have from the portal. It will be one of the best defenses Notre Dame faces off against this fall and it’s going to be a tough test for Mike Denbrock’s offense.
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