Notre Dame Opponent Preview | Florida State
Mike Norvell was dealt a bad hand when he arrived at Florida State and for a second it looked like he wasn’t going to be around long enough to change things. He went 8-13 in his first two seasons and if they didn’t make enough progress in year three, he might not have made it to year four.
After a good start in 2022, FSU dropped three games in a row and were 4-3. Since then, Norvel has gone 20-1. That includes a 13-1 record last season when they were unfairly kept out of the College Football Playoff because of an injury to their starting quarterback.
No one has successfully navigated the transfer portal as well as Norvell has these last couple of years. They added talent and developed that talent into NFL Draft picks. We’ll see if they can do it again as FSU landed several high profile transfers to add to who they’ve recruited during Norvell’s tenure.
With all of the talent they have to replace, it will be difficult to duplicate the kind of season they had in 2023. On paper this still appears to be a borderline top-10 team, though. They could end up being Notre Dame’s toughest opponent this fall.
Post-Spring SP+ Ranking
They are 12th in the post-spring SP+ projections. They are 16th on offense, 10th on defense, and eighth on special teams.
Key losses
They just had 10 players selected in the most recent NFL Draft. That’s not easy to replace that kind of talent at any program.
Edge Jared Verse (1st round) and DT Braden Fiske (2nd round) were disruptive players. FSU finished seventh in sack rate last fall. Verse and Fiske were two major reasons why. Verse was an absolute game wrecker and finished tied for second in pressures out of Power 5 defenders.
CB Renardo Green (2nd round) had tremendous ball production (14 passes defensed) and CB Jarrian Jones (3rd round) played at an elite level as their nickel. He was first in the country in opposing passer rating when targeted.
LB Tatum Bethune (7th round) was their leading tackler. The bigger loss is Kalen Deloach, who went undrafted. He doesn’t have NFL measurements, but made a ton of plays for FSU. He finished with 15.5 havoc plays.
S Akeem Dent was a multi-year starter who is now out of eligibility.
They lost all of their top skill players from last season.
WR Keon Coleman (2nd round), RB Trey Benson (3rd round), QB Jordan Travis (5th round), WR Johnny Wilson (6th round) and TE Jaheim Bell (7th round) are all gone.
OT Bless Harris (TCU) was probably overqualified to be a third tackle, so it makes sense he went elsewhere to start. Losing him could be big if one of their top two tackles goes down.
TE Markeston Douglas (Arizona State) was primarily used as a blocking tight end, but was valuable in that role.
CB Greedy Vance (USC) played important snaps at slot corner in 2023. It looked like he had lost out on being the main starter there this spring, so he decided to move on for more playing time.
DT Dennnis Briggs Jr. (Illinois) and edge Gilber Edmond (South Carolina) were both in the rotation for them. Neither were projected starters this year. It’s more of a hit to their depth.
Key additions
If college football had a comeback player of the year awared, QB DJ Uiagalelei (Oregon State) would have probably won it. He proved to be a great fit in the right kind of offense and finished 12th in ESPN’s QBR.
With a strong offensive line and great running game supporting him, he excelled. He should have that again at FSU, but the scheme is different. We’ll see how much Norvell adjusts some things to Uiagalelei. He also is throwing to a young group of receivers and it showed in the spring.
He struggles with accuracy on intermediate throws (bottom 20th percentile in on-target throws) and considering how well Notre Dame has done defending the deep ball, this is something to monitor when FSU visits South Bend.
WR Malik Benson (Alabama) was the top ranked junior college player in the country when he signed with Alabama. He had an underwhelming season in ‘23, but he can fly (10.4 100m in high school). They have high hopes for him.
WR Jalen Brown (LSU) couldn’t find the field as a true freshman. He was a top-100 talent out of high school and also had elite track times. It’s a much clearer path to playing time at FSU.
RB Jaylin Lucas (Indiana) is jitterbug out of the backfield with three career kick returns for touchdowns in only two seasons. He had 50 catches in those two seasons as well and he’s the type of athlete who typically excels in Norvell’s scheme.
RB Roydell Williams (Alabama) is the big back addition (5-10 225). He ran for 560 last year and 5.0 per carry. He could end up as their RB1.
G Richie Leonard IV (Florida) started at LG for the Gators and is a fifth year senior. He’s the likely starter at one guard. The other one is G Terrence Ferguson (Alabama). He only played 116 snaps last year and that line was not a typical Alabama line. He’s more of a wild card than sure-thing. Both of these guys are massive human beings, though.
Edge Marvin Jones Jr. (Georgia) didn’t become a star at UGA, but he has elite traits. It worked out well before when FSU grabbed a UGA pass rusher who was stuck behind other great players. Jermaine Johnson became a first round pick. The son of former FSU legend Marvin Jones, Jones Jr. stood out as a pass rusher towards the end of spring.
DE Sione Lolohea (Oregon State) is a high-motor player who Notre Dame faced in the Sun Bowl. He’s a starting caliber player who may not start at FSU.
DL Tomiwa Durojaiye (West Virginia) is on his third program in three years. Normally that is concerning, but he’s a high-ceiling player with NFL traits. If he hits, he could hit big. He had six TFLs last season in only 270 snaps.
DT Grady Kelly (Colorado State) was a multi-year starter and should be able to insert into the rotation immediately.
LB Shawn Murphy (Alabama) is another former top-100 recruit who couldn’t climb the depth chart at Alabama. Him and LB Cam Riley (788 snaps at Auburn the last two years) should be in the mix as they try to replace a couple of starters at linebacker.
Earl Little (Alabama) won the starting nickel job in the spring. The reviews on him were super positive. DB Davonte Brown (Miami) started for multiple seasons at UCF, but was a backup at Miami last fall. He should provide some depth and mixed in with the ones at safety in the spring.
There’s a group of freshmen who could end up being factors as well.
TE Landen Thomas, a top-200 recruit, turned heads in the spring at a position that is wide open in terms of playing time.
RB Kam Davis (5-10 220) was one of the top backs in the 2024 class. They might not need him to play, but he may prove too good not to contribute.
WR LaWayne McCoy, a top-150 recruit, is another early enrollee that flashed during the spring at a position where they lack clarity.
CB Charles Lester Jr. is walking into a situation at corner where the only way he’ll see the field is if he’s exceptional. He’s the top ranked recruit in the class, so it’s not out of the question that he could end up helping them this fall.
Top returners and returning production
They are 90th in returning production (87th on offense and 83rd on defense).
The Action Network created a metric called the Transfer Activity and Returning Production (TARP). That metric puts extra weight on experience and gives extra credit to fifth and sixth year seniors on a roster. They have FSU 15th in TARP on offense and that’s largely because they have a line that is primarily composed of older players. They were a Joe Moore Award semi-finalist last year and they could be the best O-line the Irish face this fall.
1st team All-ACC LT Darius Washington is back fas well as C Maurice Smith. He has 41 career starts and is probably the top returning center in the conference. RT Jeremiah Byers started all 14 games for them after transferring from UTEP. He has 43 career starts. They are all sixth year players.
RB Lawrance Toafili averaged 6.7 yards per carry and had 20 catches. He’s a weapon out of the backfield with the speed to create big plays.
Deuce Span wasn’t utilized much on offense, but he took a kick back 99 yards against Duke for a touchdown.
WR Hykeem Williams only had five catches as a true freshman. The former elite recruit has awesome potential, though. He was clocked at 22.24 MPH in high school.
The defense has good foundational pieces returning despite losing some studs. Edge Patrick Payton averaged more havoc per snap (500 snaps) than any player in the country last season. He racked up 44 pressures, 14.5 tackles for loss, and 10 pass breakups. That’s not a typo, he disrupts passing lanes with his ability to knock down passes.
It looked like he was about to enter the portal and go somewhere else, but they were able to keep him in the fold. The consistency isn’t always there with him, but he has the potential to be a very high pick in the next NFL Draft.
DT Josh Farmer is a returning starter inside and had some dominant moments, but his play faded down the stretch.
LB DJ Lundy did enter the portal and committed to Colorado, but then reversed course. He’s terrific versus the inside run game, but is not at the same level in coverage.
CB Fentrell Cypress didn’t live up to expectations after transferring from Virginia. He was 1st team All-ACC in 2022. He’s still a quality starter who should end up playing at the next level.
CB AZ Thomas Jr. could end up as the top corner Notre Dame faces this season. The arrow is pointing up for him and he was very good in ‘23.
S Shyheim Brown has played a lot of football for them and is solid in just about every aspect with his game.
They finished second in EPA (expected points added) per dropback for opposing passers and the pass defense should be great again.
Three big questions
How much of a step back will the defense take?
The defense was the biggest reason they went undefeated during the regular season. They carried the team after Travis went down and finished 11th DF+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking). They ended up 15th in havoc and 7th in sack rate.
The pass rush might not be as good, but it could be pretty close to what they had last season. The secondary is going to be very good again as well. The biggest questions for them are up the middle at defensive tackle and linebacker. They finished 70th in EPA (expected point added) per rush last season, so it’s something to monitor.
Can they replace all of that skill on offense?
They don’t lack talent at receiver, but they’ll be asking players with almost zero college production to replace some studs. Norvell has never had trouble maximizing his running backs, so we may see them rely more on the run game with an experienced offensive line as well.
It sounded like Uigalelei was up and down this spring, which isn’t unexpected with it being his fourth offensive coordinator in his college career. The key will be how much he can adapt to FSU’s offense and how much Norvell can adapt to Uigalelei’s skill set. That has to happen while they wait for the new receivers to develop.
How will they handle South Bend in November?
FSU isn’t playing in cold weather very often. They didn’t handle it well when they visited in 2018 (the Irish won 42-13 with their backup quarterback). It didn’t go too well for them back in November of 1993 either.
It’s going to be cold and it will be colder at night with the game being played in primetime. They’ll have a lot of players on their roster who have never played a game in those temperatures and to say it won’t be a factor would be false.
How they’ve recruited
They’ve signed only 76 high school recruits in the last four cycles with a blue-chip ratio of around 50%. They’ve relied heavily on the transfer portal, but they’ve been able to land coveted players through that process. They’ve signed 18 blue-chips based on transfer rankings in the last two years.
The roster is a bit in transition and they may take a small step back, especially if they don’t get what they want out of their quarterbacks and receivers. They still have a very good chance of winning the ACC and if they do that, they’ll get the CFP spot they should have had last year.
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