Notre Dame Opponent Preview | Virginia
Life moves fast in college football. At one time Tony Elliott was viewed as one of the top assistants in the country back when he was the primary play-caller at Clemson.
From 2015-2020, Clemson finished in the top-15 in OF+ (combined FEI and SP+ rankings) each season. Elliott was considered as someone who was going to get a big time head coaching job and he could even choose to wait to find the perfect fit much like Kirby Smart did after running the defense at Alabama.
It didn’t work out that way for Elliott when the Clemson offense crashed back down to Earth, 71st in OF+, in 2021.
Suddenly he wasn’t a hot name anymore. People determined it was the Jimmy’s and Joe’s that helped make that offense hum and the X’s and O’s left a lot to be desired. That led Elliott to the Virginia job, which was more of a fixer upper than move in ready.
It’s been a bumpy ride so far through two seasons. They’ve won six games total, including only three last season. The guy who was on everyone’s coaching hot board might be on the hot seat if he can’t get it turned around in year three.
There is a glimmer of hope for the future, though. Four of their nine losses came by a combined 10 points and all but one key player returns for them who played a major role last season. They’ve also added some skill position transfers who should help the offense put up more points.
They should be better in 2024, but it’s unclear how much better. It’s probably nowhere close to being better enough to challenge teams like Clemson and Notre Dame, both of whom Virginia has to play on the road this season.
Post-Spring SP+ Ranking
They are 77th in the post-spring SP+ projections. They are 75th on offense, 81st on defense, and 71st on special teams.
Key losses
WR Malik Washington was their lone draft choice (6th round). He was 1st team All-ACC and broke the single-season receiving record at Virginia by putting up monster numbers (110 receptions, 1,426 yards, and nine touchdowns).
Outside of Washington, there isn’t another notable contributor they lost. They didn’t have a single player transfer out to another Power 4 program. That’s a good thing in one sense because they held onto some players who could have left. It’s also an indication that the program just doesn’t have the depth of talent throughout the roster that many bigger programs would try to poach.
Key additions
WR Chris Tyree is probably going to get a lot of those targets that went to Washington last season. It’s why choosing Virginia was a no-brainer for him even without it being his home state.
Tyree had a very good year for the Irish as a big play threat and has the potential to thrive in a bigger role at UVA.
They also added WR Andre Greene (UNC) and WR Trell Harris (Kent State) as transfers. Greene is a former top-100 prospect who had little production in his two years. Harris is a potential starter outside who had 399 yards last season as a redshirt freshman in the MAC.
TE Sage Ennis (Clemson) missed the spring with an injury, but could be a potential starter for them. He didn’t get many opportunities at Clemson as the second tight end on a team that plays with only one the majority of the time.
TE Tyler Neville (Harvard) was twice an All-Ivy league player. He had 62 catches for 698 yards and eight touchdowns in 2023. He arrived on campus this summer.
OL Drake Metcalf (UCF) started out at Stanford and is the projected starter at center for them this fall. He’s in his fifth season.
LB Corey Thomas Jr (Akron) is a nickel backer who is in his sixth year. He’s solid in coverage and had the second best PFF grade out of any defender on Akron last season.
LB Dorian Jones (Cincinnati) started eight games last fall and was Cincinnati’s third leading tackler.
They landed a pair of corners who are projected starters for them. CB Kendren Smith (Penn) was another All-Ivy league performer. He was a playmaker with over double digit havoc plays in both of the last two seasons.CB Kempton Shine (Eastern Michigan) has started 40 games in his career. They have the kind of size to match up with bigger bodies.
S Ethan Minter was an early enrollee and was a lower ranked athlete after being a high school quarterback. He got some reps with the ones in the spring and could prove to be a hidden gem for UVA.
Top returners and returning production
They are sixth in returning production (6th on offense and 15th on defense).
The Action Network created a metric called the Transfer Activity and Returning Production (TARP). That metric puts extra weight on experience and gives extra credit to fifth and sixth year seniors on a roster.
They have Virginia 38th in TARP on offense because the returning players are mostly very young. They are 113th in TARP on defense. They have a bunch of guys returning, but just like on offense, they are young.
QB Anthony Collandrea showed flashes of star potential as a true freshman. He started six games, highlighted by 314 passing and 109 rushing (without sacks) in a close loss to Louisville. He finished 34th in ESPN’s QBR and was dangerous at times as a runner.
He has to protect the football better (nine interceptions and four fumbles).
Most people assume that Collandrea will win the job, but QB Tony Muskett started prior to Collandrea and lost his job due to injury. They’ve stated it’s still a competitive situation and for what it is worth, Muskett was the quarterback they brought to ACC Media Days.
Muskett has more experience. He was a starter at Monmouth before transferring to UVA. He made smarter decisions against pressure and the blitz.
Four starters are returning up front, but they were flat out bad. The offense was 123rd in havoc allowed, 126th in EPA (expected points added) per rush, and C Brian Stevens was the only above average player for them. He’s moving to guard this fall, which could help them.
They are young at offensive tackle and the three players with experience gave up a combined 17 sacks.
WR Malachi Fields is the one proven skill player returning. He’s 2nd team All-ACC in the pre-season and had 811 yards in ‘23. He’ll be a deep threat who they target frequently.
WR JR Wilson only had 10 receptions, but he had a breakout spring. He’s expected to be a starter.
RB Kobe Pace started out at Clemson and chipped in with 18 catches. He struggled to run behind a bad line (3.1 yards per carry), but averaged over 6.0 YPC at Clemson back in 2021 when he started six games.
The box scores would say that LB James Jackson had a pretty good season (80 tackles, 10 havoc plays), but he missed too many tackles.
LB Kamren Robinson showed plenty of promise as a true freshman. He looks like a lynchpin for their defense over the next few seasons.
Edge Kam Butler only played 199 snaps before an injury ended his season, but he had five TFLs in only four games. He was a productive pass rusher at Miami (OH) before transferring to UVA.
Edge Chico Bennett Jr. had 7.5 sacks in 2022, but that dropped to zero in 2023. The pressure numbers were roughly the same for him in the two seasons, though.
They were the second worst team in sack percentage and at the bottom of the conference in pressure percentage. They need Bennett to be better and others to step up.
S Jonas Sanker was a major bright spot for them. He was 1st team All-ACC, racked up over 100 tackles, and was their only consistent playmaker (18 havoc plays).
S Antonio Clary returns after missing the 2023 season due to injury. Having him back to play alongside Sanker is huge for them.
Two big questions
Are they on the verge of a breakthrough?
Close losses are one thing, but the roster really shouldn’t give anyone too much confidence that this is a bowl team. They don’t appear to be good enough on either side of the line to hang with the better teams in the ACC, even with some decent talent at the skill positions.
Do they have enough playmakers on defense?
They had true freshmen play over 1,400 snaps in ‘23, which is not a recipe for success at a place like Virginia. They finished 89th in DF+, 108th in points per drive, and 123rd in EPA per rush. They simply didn’t have enough playmakers up front and I don’t think that has changed to see them drastically improve from finishing 104th in havoc rate last season.
Having a healthy Clary and Butler should give them a boost and they have some young talent like Robinson who could take a big step, but they desperately need those transfer corners to hit for them.
The pass rush is the piece that doesn’t look much better than it did a year ago. If it is as anemic as it was, it could be another long season for Virginia’s defense.
How they’ve recruited
Virginia signed only four blue-chips from 2021-2024 and they’ve signed zero in the two most recent recruiting cycles. They also only brought in one transfer in the last two offseasons that 247Sports had ranked as a 4-star.
This is the one of the least talented teams in the ACC and Elliott has not signed a blue-chip prospect in either one of his two full classes. This team isn’t built to hang with a program like Notre Dame. They’ll need to have tremendous injury luck to make it competitive by the time they visit South Bend in November.
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