Scouting Report | Louisville
Jeff Brohm inherited a situation at Louisville where he had to turnover a bunch of players on the roster. It was about half of the team in year one and they found a ton of success with transfers to win 10 games and make an appearance in the ACC Championship game.
It’s going well with 41 newcomers to the roster in 2024 with the Cardinals off to a 3-0 start. Ranked 16th in F+ (combined FEI and SP+), they are a contender in the ACC again this season.
The early returns on their new skill position talent has been great and the talent returning on defense has given them a strong foundation to build around. Notre Dame will be a different test for them, though.
The Irish are 10th in F+ and there’s a big difference between Louisville facing an FCS team, the 104th ranked team in F+, and a Georgia Tech team with a suspect defense. They’ve had one of the easiest opening schedules in the country and all of those games were at home. This is their first road game of the season and the game is just as big for them as it is for the Irish.
It’s also a revenge game for Notre Dame, which only makes this matchup even more intriguing.
Offense
Brohm has adapted from his previous pass-happy approach at Western Kentucky and Purdue. He’s built his offense at Louisville on the running game and taking play-action shots off of that. They are the third most frequent play-action passing offense in the country.
It will be interesting to see Brohm’s approach in this matchup because he had a very conservative strategy with quarterback Jack Plummer last season when he was content to mostly throw underneath (5.9 yards per attempt) and wasn’t willing to take chances down the field and turn the ball over.
They relied on the ground game (and their defense) and it carried them to win, but this is a different group than the one they had last season. It should be noted that the offense last season scored 14 points per game less on the road than at home.
They are 16th in points per drive to start the season and 16th in OF+.
Expected Strengths
They have a ton of speed and athleticism at the skill positions. They built the roster with this in mind and have several receivers who can stretch the field with speed and a handful of running backs with elite speed.
If a defense makes a mistake, it can be 60 yards or six points in a hurry. They have 23 plays of 20+ yards from scrimmage and their per game explosiveness is top-three in the country.
QB Tyler Shough throws the deep ball really well and he has a bigger arm than Plummer. He’s also a much better athlete who has been a weapon as a runner at his previous programs Texas Tech and Oregon.
The most impressive thing for them is that they are taking shots down the field, but have zero turnovers through three games. They are 4th in havoc rate allowed.
Yes, the competition has a lot to do with that, but they haven’t made many sloppy mistakes that have cost them.
Potential Weaknesses
If we’re being completely honest, they’ve had a one game season so far. It was last week against Georgia Tech and the one area where Georgia Tech is bad is on defense. They are 84th in DF+ and I mentioned that the other two opponents were an FCS team and a Jacksonville State defense that is 108th in DF+.
They took advantage of a bad Georgia Tech pass defense that is 130th in EPA per dropback. Jacksonville State is 114th. It will be more difficult against Notre Dame (second).
They were overly reliant on explosive plays against Georgia Tech as well. They didn’t drive the ball and each one of their scoring opportunities came for explosive plays in the passing game.
Their rushing attack struggled against Georgia Tech. It was up front and with their backs. Minus starter Maurice Turner, their backs forced only missed tackle against Georgia Tech. They averaged -0.47 EPA per rush and totalled only 57 yards on the ground.
They were only two of nine on 3rd down against Georgia Tech as well. It’s different when they have to do straight dropbacks and protect rather than utilize play-action. I know Shough hasn’t been pressured much, but that largely has to do with who they have played as well.
Georgia Tech is 112th in PFF’s pass rush grades and Jacksonville State is 126th. Three of Georgia Tech’s five sacks this season came against VMI.
They’ve only scored eight touchdowns on 13 red zone opportunities as well against these defenses.
Personnel notes
#9 QB Tyler Shough
- Texas Tech transfer
- only played in 15 in the previous 3 seasons due to injury
- never had 200 pass attempts in a season
- 20 TDs vs 11 picks during that time
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- 4 starts in ‘23, bottom 20th percentile in 3rd down EPA, EPA vs pressure, and completion % vs pressure
- 15th in ESPN’s QBR
- has thrown the deep ball much better this season
- only sacked once this season
- most pressure vs GT came late with time for plays to develop, 4.21 seconds to throw
- 14.2 YPA vs GT, 3.39 seconds to throw and can escape the rush
- dual-threat ability, but injuries means they probably don’t want to run him
- 11.9 ADOT is 9th in the country
- 54.2% play-action, 69% completions 5 TDs
- been very smart about throwing the ball away when the shot play hasn’t been there
#15 QB Harrison Bailey
- multiple time transfer
- played vs ND at UNLV in 2022
- 4.83 40, 4.39 short shuttle, 33.4 vert at 224 in HS
- not a runner, but can move the sticks
- less than 200 career dropbacks in 5 seasons
- 8 of 8 in garbage time in first two weeks
#10 QB Pierce Clarkson
- 6-1 195
- played in garbage time
- RS frosh, 4-star recruit
- won state championship at St. John Bosco, former teammate of KVA
#4 RB Maurice Turner
- 5-10 190
- Runs hard
- RB3 for them in ‘23
- 10.94 100m in HS
- High ankle sprain and unlikely to play vs ND
- 4.2 short shuttle 135.5 broad jump at East Carolina camp in HS
#25 RB Isaac Brown
- 5-9 190
- true freshman
- early enrollee who had a strong spring
- 77-yard run vs Austin Peay
- 3 for 7 yards vs GT
- 10.89 100m in HS
- 4 catches, all checkdowns
#26 RB Duke Watson
- 6-0 180
- 40-yard run vs Jacksonville St, 58-yard run vs Austin Peay
- skinny, but can run away from people
- can be shifty if he has the space
- 9 missed tackles forced, but 7 vs Austin Peay
- 10.84 100m in HS
#22 RB Keyjuan Brown
- 5-10 210
- 21-yard reception vs Jacksonville St
- 19 for 126 this season
- 7 missed tackles forced
- 11.98 100m in HS
#21 RB Donald Chane
- 5-11 220
- Miami transfer
- 5.1 YPC last season
- 10 for 23 vs GT, led the team in carries
- thick lower body, didn’t run like a tackle breaker vs GT
- 4.4 40, 4.16 short shuttle, 39.2 vert in HS
- 10.8 100m in HS
#5 WR Caullin Lacy
- 5-10 190
- South Alabama transfer
- broke his collarbone in camp, has not played this season
- 2nd in YAC per route run in ‘23
- 18 receptions of 20+ yards
- 91 catches for 1,316 yards
- 5 for 104 vs Oklahoma State in ‘23
- led the country in YAC
- 4th in YAC per reception
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- possibly cleared for this week
#0 WR Chris Bell
- 6-2 225
- Big, jump ball receiver
- 2nd in catches last season
- caught 10 of 16 contested targets
- dominant spring - 22.54 200m, 11.17 100m in HS
- explosive play on a crosser with big YAC for a TD vs GT
- four receptions of 20+ yards in three games
- 27.8 per reception, 14.8 ADOT
- tough to tackle, 103 of 167 yards have been YAC
- has a different gear when he builds up speed
#1 WR Ja’corey Brooks
- 6-3 195
- Alabama transfer, 5-star prospect as a recruit
- 17.3 per catch, 8 TDs in ‘22
- limited by a shoulder injury in ‘23
- six receptions of 20+ yards in three games
- 17.5 per reception, caught 17 of 20 targets
- 4 for 125 vs GT
- ADOT of 15 yards
- 22.18 200m in HS
#7 WR Jimmy Calloway
- 6-0 190
- started out at Tennessee
- played only 10 snaps this season all vs GT
- zero targets
- had 19 catches last season, wasn’t a deep threat
- 4.7 40, 4.33 short shuttle, 35 vert in HS
- 10.7 100m in HS
#2 WR Jadon Thompson
- 6-2 190
- two 30-yard receptions this season
- 4.18 short shuttle, 37.2 vert in HS
- moved to the slot
- out for the season with a knee injury
#81 WR Cataurus Hicks
- 5-10 180
- 51-yard reception vs Jacksonville St
#24 Slot WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce
- 5-11 180
- 31 catches in ‘22
- 98% aligned in the slot last season
- lined him up out of the backfield and threw the ball to him vs GT
- not someone who will win contested, but speed to do some damage in space
- three catches this season
- transferred to South Carolina, but unexpectedly returned to Louisville in August
#11 TE Jamari Johnson
- 6-5 265
- 29-yard reception vs Jacksonville St
- 82 inch wingspan
- freaky traits
- 5 catches for 69 yards
- middle screen for 32-yards called back by penalty vs GT
- will throw it him downfield
- has done a good job as a blocker when in-line
#85 TE Nate Kurisky
- 6-3 235
- Mostly blocks, mostly in-line
- Below average blocker
- 2 catches vs Jacksonville St, but 18 catches last season
- possession guy
- 3rd TE this season
#83 TE Mark Redman
- 6-6 258
- SDSU transfer, started out at Washington
- 38 catches in ‘23, 2nd team All-MWC
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- can threaten down the seam, but doesn’t play strong
- three catches for 45
- leads the TE in snaps
#45 FB Duane Martin
- 6-2 260
- primarily fullback, will go I-formation
- 1 catch for 6 yards
#71 LT Monroe Mills
- 6-7 315
- Texas Tech transfer
- average run blocker
- can get on tilt when he loses in pass pro
- think he is average at best
#70 LT Trevonte Sylvester
- 6-6 280
- previously at Houston
- has lined up as a TE in short yardage
- fourth tackle
#76 RT Jonathan Mendoza
- 6-9 310
- Yale transfer
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- had some trouble with speed off the edge vs GT
- moves people in the run game
#60 RT Rasheed Miller
- 6-7 310
- Georgia Southern transfer
- 2nd team All-Sun Belt in ‘23
- allowed 32 pressures at GS last season
- splitting with Mendoza at RT, it’s been the weak link up front
#68 LG Michael Gonzalez
- 6-4 305
- 3rd team All-ACC in ‘23
- multi-year starter
- has experience playing tackle as well
- up and down with his level of play
#51 RG Austin Collins
- 6-3 295
- won the RG job
- only allowed one pressure this season
- good zone blocker
#56 G Renato Brown
- 6-4 315
- three year starter, now a reserve
- has had issues with penalties each season
- two big holding calls trying to pick up the blitz
- plays way too high with his pads, has trouble dealing with lateral quickness
- replacement level player
#50 C Peter Nygra
- 6-4 300
- Northern Illinois transfer
- played over 1,500 snaps in last two seasons
- solid and doesn’t blow assignments
- ate up against a better DL when playing Nebraska last season
#59 C/LG Victor Cutler
- 6-3 300
- Ohio St transfer
- previously at Louisiana-Monroe, didn’t play for OSU in ‘23
- was a backup to a player who lost his job this year
- 11 snaps at RG vs GT
- next man in inside
Key for Notre Dame
Limit the explosives
I feel like this could be the key for every game, but it is especially against Louisville. It is also important because Brohm is one of the gadget play kings of college football. He will have stuff saved for this game and use it to try and create big plays if their offense is stagnant.
Notre Dame’s defense has been great at not allowing explosive plays in the passing game and the secondary is one of the best in the country. They need to play at their highest level in this game and the run defense has to be better than it was last season.
Giving up seven of 10 yard runs is okay. They can’t allow Louisville to have explosives running the ball. Jawhar Jordan burned them last season with touchdown runs of 45 and 21 yards.
Defense
Mark Hagen and Ron English both came with Brohm from Purdue where they were co-coordinators. They have done a good job with this defense over their 17 games at Louisville and have managed to fit a bunch of new pieces together in both years to find success.
They are 26th in DF+ and 39th in points per drive and the talent on this defense is very close to the one Notre Dame faced against Texas A&M (22nd in DF+). Last season they only allowed two explosives before garbage time when they played the Irish and the defensive line and secondary controlled the game.
Notre Dame will have to be better against those groups this season if they want to have more success than they did last October.
Expected Strengths
They do a really nice job with their blitz packages bringing rushers from all over the place. They blitzed Sam Hartman on 40% of his dropbacks last season and he struggled (5.5 YPA and two picks). Notre Dame doesn’t want to be in 3rd and long against them with those blitzes and some studs up front who can get after the passer.
Louisville is currently 16th in 3rd and 4th down success rate on defense. They are only 43rd in havoc rate this season (12th in 2023), but have potential game wreckers who can cause negative plays. They have a lot of twitchy athletes who thrive on the aggressive approach that Hagen and English have.
They managed to only allow 19 points to Georgia Tech and they are the 24th ranked offense in OF+. Some of that was situational wins (stops on fourth down and a field goal block), but good defenses are tough to beat in those situations and this is a good defense.
They don’t have an obvious option at nickel on 3rd downs with Riley out. They may play either a nickel backer or a safety instead and that could be an opportunitiy for Notre Dame to find a mismatch.
Potential Weaknesses
The overall rushing defense numbers have looked good so far (19th in EPA per rush), but they have given up yards to running quarterbacks. Jacksonville State’s Tyler Huff rushed 16 times for 116 yards and Georgia Tech’s Haynes King rushed 13 times for 58 yards. They combined for seven runs of 10+ yards.
They will gameplan to stop Riley Leonard as a runner, but he’s been more elusive and explosive than those two quarterbacks.
The pass defense hasn’t been good. They aren’t healthy at cornerback and gave up big plays in the passing game to Georgia Tech (four plays of 28+ yards). The safeties are also much better downhill run defenders than they are in coverage. They got sucked into bad plays on play-action against Georgia Tech. King was 7 of 10 on play-action and averaged 15.6 YPA.
They are 88th in passing success rate against.
Personnel notes
#9 Edge Ashton Gillotte
- 6-3 275
- All-American candidate
- great pass rusher, speed to power
- line up in multiple alignments, had success rushing inside vs ND in ‘23
- 24.7% win rate vs true pass sets, 11 sacks, 17.5 havoc plays, 58 pressures last season
- potential day two pick last year
- explosive laterally, great on stunts
- very good vs the run as well
- 405 power clean, 4.35 short shuttle, 34.5 vert, 4.77 40 as a freshman
- 19.9mph on GPS as a sophomore
- outstanding bull rush
- dominant vs ND last season, 6 pressures
- as good vs the run as pass
- move him inside and run stunts with Logan
- the best DL ND will play this season?
- 33.3% win rate vs TPS this season
#95 Edge Mason Reiger
- 6-4 250
- nine havoc plays despite missing four games last season
- two sacks, had a dominant rep vs Joe Alt against ND
- star potential, but complications from knee surgery means he has not played this season
#19 Edge Tramel Logan
- 6-4 250
- USF transfer
- 4.56 short shuttle, 28.5 vert in HS
- had 13 havoc plays at USF in ‘23
- has a knack for knocking down passes
- six havoc plays in first three games, three sacks
- twitchy and can run the hoop
- 30 pressures at USF in ‘23
- 21.9% win rate vs true pass sets in ‘23
- took it to the GT RT who isn’t very good
#41 Edge Ramon Puryear
- 6-3 275
- 6th year player
- Mostly an edge, can play inside
- Not good vs the run inside, but was impactful as an interior rusher vs NC State in ‘23, 4 total pressures
- 4 sacks, 6 TFLs in ‘23
- rotation player, beaten out by other players
#33 Edge Myles Jernigan
- 6-2 235
- Cal transfer
- good twitch, but can get engulfed in the run game at times
- 4.83 40, 4.16 short shuttle, 36.5 vert in HS
#98 Edge Adonijah Green
- 6-6 240
- 85 inch wingspan
- six pressures, but 5 vs Austin Peay
#93 DT Jared Dawson
- 6-2 305
- Got reached vs zone against GT a few times last season
- A much better pass rusher who had 4 sacks in ‘22
- 50-3 as HS wrestler during JR year
- two sacks in first two games
- 3-tech
#50 DT Thor Griffith
- 6-2 320
- Harvard transfer
- 23 TFLs in last two seasons
- Feldman’s Freaks list
- repped 225 45 times
- 4.95 40, 1.65 10
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- state champion wrestler in HS
- 2 TFLs this season
- plays a bit high with pad level, plays stiffer than his testing numbers
#99 DT Dezmond Tell
- 6-1 295
- nose
- A meh pass rusher, but can push the pocket
- solid at the POA, but not disruptive
#90 DT Rene Konga
- 6-4 290
- Rutgers transfer
- earned starting job, has 5 pressures -
did a really good job playing the run vs GT
- think he is their best interior guy
#34 LB TJ Quinn
- 6-1 230
- led them in tackles in ‘23
- 2nd team All-ACC in preseason
- solid vs inside run game
- only 4.5 havoc plays in ‘23, 1 in 3 games this season
- made a big impact as a blitzer last season, not yet this season
- played poorly vs GT
#6 LB Stanquan Clark
- 6-3 230
- tied for team lead in tackles
- good vs inside run game
- below average in coverage, can be targeted
- 11.24 100m in HS
#15 LB Dan Foster Jr.
- 6-3 230
- Texas State transfer, started out at Marshall
- blocked a punt vs Austin Peay
- reserve ILB
- inconsistent tackler, but aggressively triggers
#35 Star Antonio Watts
- 6-2 225
- converted safety
- nickel LB, splitting with Ben Perry
- 3 havoc plays in first three games
- explosive blitzer
#32 LB Jurriente Davis
- 6-0 230
- at his 5th school
- just a guy, not a power conference player
#10 Star Benjamin Perry
- 6-3 205
- double digit havoc plays
- nickel LB
- good instincts on the perimeter, slips blocks
- Hard hitter, physical player
- Can be a bit reckless with angles
- beat on a slot fade vs Chris Tyree that was dropped
#26 S MJ Griffin
- 6-1 200
- previously at Temple
- started in ‘22, missed the ‘23 season with an injury
- comfortable adding in vs the run
- good tackler, but not a ton of range
#21 S D’Angelo Hutchinson
- 6-3 195
- played mostly ST in ‘23
- 1.5 TFLs in opener vs Austin Peay
- missed 3 tackles vs GT
#12 S Tamarion McDonald
- 6-2 195
- Tennessee transfer
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- finds the football on the perimeter
- 20.5 havoc plays the previous two years
- had two sacks vs Austin Peay
- very good blitzer
- like him a lot more as a box player than deep
- bad eyes on a big play where he bit hard on play-action and gave up explosive vs GT
- beat in man on a post route by the TE late for a big play as well
#27 S Devin Neal
- previously at Baylor
- team leading four picks last season
- 13 havoc plays, 74 tackles
- Good run defender, but not great in a short area
- bad eyes vs PA, gave a 51-yard deep shot vs GT
- allowed the highest possible NFL passer rating so far this season
- 4.41 40, 4.28 short shuttle, 39.2 vert in HS
#3 CB Quincy Riley
- 6-0 195
- started out at MTSU
- one of the top CBs in ACC
- double digit havoc plays, 37.3 NFL passer rating when targeted in ‘23
- was potential day two pick last year
- 14 career INTs, great ball skills - great route recognition
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- dominant vs ND last season, 1 INT, allowed 1 catch on 6 targets
- plays nickel on 3rd downs
- four havoc plays in three games this season
- missed the 2nd half of the GT game with high ankle sprain
- beat on a 45-yard bomb vs GT
- unlikely to play vs ND
- 10.4 100m in HS
#14 CB Corey Thornton
- 6-1 195 - UCF transfer
- 3 INTs, 12 havoc plays in ‘23
- only allowed long of 19 on 51 targets last season
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- two PBUs this season
- 4.87 40, 4.21 short shuttle, 34 vert at 170 in HS
- missed some snaps due to injury vs GT
- good blitzer
#23 CB Tahveon Nicholson
- 5-11 185
- Illinois transfer
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- 10 havoc plays at Illinois in ‘23
- two TFLs this season
- flagged for 11 penalties in ‘23, six the previous season
- played primarily man converge at Illinois
- isolate him and double move him, he will grab
- missed some snaps due to injury vs GT
- physical tackler
#20 CB Tayon Holloway
- 6-1 190
- UNC transfer
- played more snaps due to injuries vs GT
- missed a tackle vs GT TE and gave up good YAC
Key for Notre Dame
Take advantage of their aggression
Louisville is going to be prioritizing their run defense and they should against Notre Dame’s backfield. That should leave them vulnerable at times, especially with the lack of discipline from the safeties and the questions at corner.
Dropping back a bunch of times against this defensive line would be a massive mistake, but being able to hit some explosive plays in the passing game and utilizing play-action will be important for Notre Dame to put up points.
Special Teams
They are 78th in SF+.
The kicking game has not been great for them to start the season, but they did block a couple of punts in the season opener (Devin Neal and Dan Foster Jr.) and Tayon Holloway blocked a field goal that turned into a touchdown against Georgia Tech.
Quincy Riley has been the primary punt returner, but even if by some miracle he is able to play in this game after a high ankle sprain, I would not expect him to return punts. It’s likely Isaac Brown replacing him who also is the primary kick returner. He has averaged 18 yards on two returns, but had a 99-yard return for a touchdown last season as a high school senior.
K Brock Travelstead
- missed a chip shot and one over 50 yards in first two games
- 3 of 6 on the season with one blocked vs GT
- improved greatly on kickoffs. 75% have been touchbacks
- 17 of 24 with long of 53 last season
#39 P Carter Schwartz
- 6-4 230
- freshman
- three punts this season, did not punt vs GT
- 40.3 per punt
- 34.0 net per punt
#93 P Brady Hodges
- 6-1 200
- 43.5 yards per punt on 5 punts this season
- averaged 42.75 per punt last season
- 37.2 net per punt
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