Scouting Report | Virginia
Tony Elliott only won six games in his first two seasons at Virginia, so there needed to be some progress made in year three. There has been as they’re now only one win short of that two season win total.
UVa is 5-4 and coming off a significant win against Pitt. It puts them one step closer to getting back to a bowl game. It was a tremendous bounce back after they had dropped three in a row after a 4-1 start, but it probably was a bit of fool’s gold in terms of optics.
Pitt was ranked in the top-20 in the College Football Playoff rankings, but they are ranked outside of the top-40 in F+ (the combined FEI and SP+ rankings). Virginia has played three top-40 programs: Louisville, Clemson, and North Carolina. They are 0-3 in those games and were blown out by the latter two teams.
Notre Dame will be their toughest test of the season.
Ranked 69th in F+, Virginia is one of the least talented teams out of the four power conferences. They’ll have to play their A game and to keep this one close against the Irish.
Offense
Virginia was 34th in yards per play in the month of September, but everything changed once they got into the meat of their schedule. They were 101st in YPP in the month of October and are 102nd in YPP vs FBS competition overall this season.
They’re ranked 80th in OF+ and 88th in points per drive. They’ll need to limit mistakes against a Notre Dame defense that has thrived on creating them.
Expected Strengths
WR Malachi Fields is a legit “dude”. He can be a matchup problem and they’ve been moving him around to get those matchups. Over ¼ of his snaps on pass plays have been from the slot in the last three games.
QB Anthony Colandria can hurt a defense with his legs. He's a legitimate dual-threat who had 93 yards rushing against Louisville. He’ll have to be accounted for in the running game.
Potential Weaknesses
The line is a problem, in pass protection in particular. They are 107th in PFF’s pass block grades and are 116th in sack rate against. They’ve allowed 16 sacks in the last two games and 23 sacks in their last four games. The right side of the line has had a tough time against stunts.
They simply don’t have enough playmakers who can win when they need to. That’s why they are 127th in points per Eckel and 132nd in red zone touchdown percentage. It’s also why they aren’t good on 3rd down. They’re 102nd in 3rd down conversion rate and 92nd in 3rd/4th down success rate.
They’ve played the best four defenses they’ve faced in the last four weeks, so it’s not a coincidence that they have a 20.4% havoc against during this run.
Personnel notes
#10 QB Anthony Colandrea
- 6-0 183
- 95th in QBR, 34th in 2023
- 9 INTs, 4 fumbles in ‘23
- 5 fumbles this season
- sacked 30 times
- 25.2% of pressures turn into sacks
- inconsistent accuracy
- puts a lot of throws up for grabs, four games with multiple INTs
- frequent scrambler
- throws the deep ball well
- 7.2 YPA, 63% completions, 12 TDs vs 8 INTs
- good athlete, 16 runs of 10+ yards
#7 QB Tony Muskett
- 6-2 213
- started out at Monmouth
- lost starting job to Colandrea in camp
- started last season before being replaced by Colandrea
- struggled vs blitz last season
- played in garbage time this year and put up good numbers
#19 QB Grady Brosterhous
- 6-2 211
- used in short yardage, 4 rushing TDs
#5 RB Kobe Pace
- 5-10 215
- started out at Clemson
- 18 catches in ‘23, 3.1 YPC
- averaged 6.0 YPC in ‘21 at Clemson
- 20 catches
- 4.4 YPC this season
- not a home run hitter, but runs hard
- 4.32 short shuttle, 34.8 vert in HS
#0 RB Xavier Brown
- 5-9 196
- 6.3 YPC
- make you miss ability, 18 missed tackles forced
- 15 carries for 68 yards vs Pitt was biggest workload of the season
- broke a 75 yard run vs Coastal Carolina
- run him on wheel routes
- 46 yard TD reception vs Louisville
#8 WR Malachi Fields
- 6-4 220
- 811 yards in ‘23
- deep threat
- 7 receptions of 30+ yards, tied for 13th
- 21 x 225 bench
- 38-inch vert, 10-7.5 broad jump
- 22mph on GPS, 4.18 pro agility
- leads team in targets by a wide margin
- 100-yard games vs Wake and Lville this season
- will throw him 50/50 balls deep
- has thrown two passes this season
- wins more with his size than separation
#11 WR Trell Harris
- 6-0 198
- Kent St transfer
- 399 yards as RS frosh in the MAC
- hasn’t played since the 3rd game, had knee surgery
- 7 for 91 vs Wake Forest
#85 WR Kameron Courtney
- 5-10 193
- true freshman
- 5 catches vs Louisville
#9 WR Jaden Gibson
- 6-0 179
- slot
- had some success over the middle vs UNC
- 8 catches on 10 targets
#6 WR JR Wilson
- 6-4 212
- 10 receptions in ‘23
- scored on 68 yard busted coverage TD vs UNC
#4 WR Chris Tyree
- 5-10 190
- Notre Dame transfer
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- only 5.6 per catch this season, ADOT is 2.5 yards
- 11.4 ADOT at ND last season
- 3 drops in season opener, none since
- explosive plays down the field last season, long 13 yards this fall
- was dealing with an ab injury early in the season
- capable of winning deep
- elite speed, sub 4.4 40
#2 WR Andre Greene
- 6-2 197
- UNC transfer
- top-100 recruit
- only 9 catches on 18 targets
#1 WR Suderian Harrison
- 5-9 181
- connected on a trick play pass for 27 yards to Colandrea
- only 63 plays all season
- HS QB
#16 TE Tyler Neville
- 6-4 248
- Harvard transfer
- two time All-Ivy league
- 62 for 698 and 8 TDs in ‘23
- aligned in the slot around 50% of passing snaps
- 27 catches, 12 per reception
- good after the catch
#44 TE Sackett Wood Jr
- 6-4 240
- primarily used as a blocker
#54 RT Blake Steen
- 6-5 328
- two-year starter at RT
- allowed 14 pressures in the last 5 games
- struggles with speed around the corner
- also taken reps at RG
#68 LT Jack Witmer
- 6-7 298
- converted TE
- was the starter at LT, but has repped at RT as well
- overwhelmed vs Lville, Clemson, and UNC
- gave up 3 sacks and 7 pressures vs UNC
#52 LT McKale Boley
- 6-5 313
- missed first four games with a knee injury
- allowed 4 sacks in the last 4 games
#77 LG Noah Josey
- 6-5 318
- multi-year starter at LG
- played C when Brian Stevens was out vs UNC
- solid player
#71 RG Ugonna Nnanna
- 6-4 310
- started career at Houston
- played both guard spots
- a liability in pass pro, struggles with lateral movement
#51 RG Ty Furnish
- 6-3 293
- been dealing with an ankle injury
- missed the UNC game, but back for Pitt
- can get overpowered at POA
- a brutal 28.1 PFF grade in true pass sets this season
#55 C Brian Stevens
- 6-2 300
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- started career at Dayton
- four-year starter in college
- best player up front for them
- has had issues with penalties, 8 this season
Key for Notre Dame
Rack up the havoc
If the Irish put UVa behind the sticks, it could get ugly. Early down havoc will be huge because they are bad in obvious passing situations. Colandrea has thrown four interceptions in the last two games and he’s been pressured on over 40% of his dropbacks in the last four.
With the Irish coming off a game where they had eight sacks, they should be able to present a lot of problems with how well they cover on the back end.
Defense
The defense has been average and for UVa, that’s been a step in the right direction. They are 59th in DF+ and 85th in points per drive.
While they have lost some key personnel (starting safety Antonio Clary and DT Jason Hammond are out for the season), they have had some players step up who hadn’t shown much earlier in their careers.
Depth is an issue for them, but they have a few quality guys who should end up playing on Sundays.
Expected Strengths
They do a nice job of tightening things up when opposing offenses get scoring opportunities. They’re in the top-40 in both points per Eckel and red zone touchdown percentage.
They’ve also only allowed six rushes of 20+ yards this season. They activate their safeties in the run game and that’s led by Jonas Sanker, the best player on their team.
Potential Weaknesses
Selling out against the run has hurt them with their coverage because they don’t have the athletes to match up. They are 132nd in explosive passing allowed and have allowed five receptions of 20+ yards per game.
They have struggled to get after the passer as well. They don’t get much help from their interior line and are 110th in PFF’s pass rush grades.
The linebackers aren’t good. They are below average athletes for the ACC. They can play downhill aggressively, but the athleticism is a big reason why the defense is 91st in tackling grade.
They’re 101st in early down EPA, 109th in Eckel rate, and 103rd in 3rd/4th down success rate. They don’t have enough talent in general and it’s why they’re 103rd in havoc rate. They had to add lower level transfers to their secondary who have struggled to make the jump up to a higher level.
Personnel notes
#82 Edge Kam Butler
- 6-3 256
- started out at Miami (OH)
- 5 TFLs in 4 games in ‘23
- 7 forced fumbles in his career
- 6 havoc plays this season
- 33 pressures
- 8 pressures vs Pitt
- 17.2% win rate vs true pass sets
- 4.7 40, 4.3 short shuttle, 35 vert in HS
#15 Edge Chico Bennett Jr
- 6-4 256
- started out at GT
- 7.5 sacks in ‘22, 0 in ‘23
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- 8.5 havoc plays, 23 pressures
- very active player
#10 Edge Ben Smiley III
- 6-4 308
- over 1,000 career snaps
- not a big factor as a pass rusher
- average player
#25 Edge Terrell Jones
- 6-3 273
- played career high snaps vs Pitt, 3 pressures
- 3 TFLs
#55 DT Anthony Britton
- 6-3 311
- stepped up as starter
- 5 pressures, 2 sacks vs Pitt
- solid player at nose
#90 DT Jahmeer Carter
- 6-2 309
- short arms
- average nose guard, limited athlete
- decent at POA
#18 DT Michael Diatta
- 6-4 292
- dealing with an ankle injury
- rotation player #7 LB James Jackson
- 6-3 236
- 80 tackles, 10 havoc plays in ‘23
- missed last three games with foot injury
- back at practice, expected to play some reps vs ND
- just a guy
#5 LB Kam Robinson
- 6-2 234
- been dealing with a knee injury
- suffered an upper body injury that forced him to leave game vs Pitt, he did return
- can get exposed in coverage, better blitzer
- 7 havoc plays
- 14 missed tackles this season leads the team, 23% missed tackle rate
#11 LB Dorian Jones
- 6-0 235
- transfer from Cincinnati, started out at Lville
- split time at LB in last two games
- misses too many tackles
- shows flashes a blitzer
- 4.68 40 in HS
#8 LB Trey McDonald
- 6-3 232
- not a great athlete, struggles in space
- 7 missed tackles vs Maryland and UNC
- will miss the first half of the ND game after a targeting penalty vs Pitt
#3 S Corey Thomas Jr
- 6-4 221
- Akron transfer
- 6th year
- move him around, good box player
- INT vs Pitt
- 4.34 short shuttle in HS
#20 S Jonas Sanker
- 6-1 210
- 1st team All-ACC in ‘23
- 100 tackles, 18 havoc plays
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- game wrecker vs Pitt, blocked a FG and had a pick
- leads team in tackles and havoc (12)
- 7 TFLs, good vs perimeter
- best NFL prospect on their team
#2 S Caleb Hardy
- 6-3 207
- struggled in his one start vs Louisville
- much better vs the run than in coverage
#30 S Ethan Minter
- 6-0 201
- true freshman
- HS QB
- INT vs Louisville
- played in 5 games, has looked like a freshman most of the time
#9 CB Jam Jackson
- 6-2 187
- Robert Morris transfer
- physical, but grabby
- 5 PBUs
- beat deep often
- 5 missed tackles in last 3 games
#29 CB Kempton Shine
- 5-11 191
- Eastern Michigan transfer
- great ball production in the MAC
- been their best CB
- 5 havoc plays
- only allowed 34.5% completions
#4 DB Kendren Smith
- 6-1 207
- Penn transfer
- All-Ivy league
- ton of ball production at Penn
- 4 passes defended this season
- allowing 15.6 per catch
Key for Notre Dame
Take advantage of their aggressiveness
The pass defense isn’t good in general, but it’s been awful on 1st down because of the way they play the run. They’re 120th in 1st down pass efficiency defense.
They’re going to sell out to try and stop Notre Dame’s backs and Riley Leonard from running. That will leave them vulnerable for the big play on early downs.
Special Teams
Virginia is 40th in SF+. Sanker blocked a field goal against Pitt and that was their only blocked kick of the season.
Will Bettridge has been one of the best kickers in the country.
Though Tyree hasn’t been a huge impact for them as a returner this season, he returned a punt and kickoff for 90+ yard touchdowns at Notre Dame. He’s a threat.
#41 K Will Bettridge
- 5-10 180
- long of 47
- 17 of 19 FGs this season
- made 84% of his kicks in his career
#38 P Daniel Sparks
- 6-6 214
- originally at Louisiana-Monroe
- 44.1 yards per pun
t - 60% of his kickoffs have gone for touchbacks
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