Scouting Report | Army
Head coach Jeff Monken in his 11th year at Army and it’s been a special one. Army is undefeated, 9-0, with a chance to be the Group of 5 representative in the College Football Playoff.
That will only happen if they win out first. That starts with beating Notre Dame in a Shamrock Series matchup in Yankee Stadium.
It’s a weird thing to type that Army is ¾ of the way through their regular season and has not truly been tested. They have not played a power conference opponent. Not a single team in their first nine games is currently ranked in the top-90 of the F+ rankings (combined FEI and SP+). Their top ranked opponent was North Texas. They’re 91st and Army beat them 14-3.
It can’t be denied that Army has played really well all season. They have the longest current winning streak in the FBS at 13 games. Army is 1st in net points per drive this season. They are 27th in F+, which is the highest ranked opponent for the Irish since they played Louisville.
Offense
Cody Worley took over play-calling after the offense sputtered last season. They were 118th in OF+ and only scored 20+ points twice in the first eight games of the 2023 and were shut out by a bad LSU defense (84th in DF+).
Worley veered back towards the old Army offense and it’s been thriving. They’re 26th in OF+, 6th in yards per play (vs FBS competition), and 1st in points per drive.
Efficiency is everything for them. No one runs the ball more than them. They have run the ball 87.2% of the time and they play to shorten the game and limit possessions. They are last in pace of play and second in time of possession per game.
It has to be mentioned that they have probably played against the worst group of defenses in the country. Their DF+ rankings for the eight FBS opponents are 84th, 89th, 91st, 109th, 114th, 122nd, 124th, and 127th. None of those defenses are in the same ballpark as Notre Dame’s.
Expected Strengths
They constantly gain positive yards running the football. They are 1st in havoc allowed (last year they were 53rd) and are only allowing 2.75 TFLs per game.
The offensive line has done a fantastic job this season and is one of the semi-finalists for the Joe Moore Award. They’re 1st in PFF run blocking grade, 1st in rushing success rate, 11th in EPA (expected points added) per rush.
When they do throw the football, they’ve been dangerous. Their receiving options have played well (2nd in PFF receiving grade) and the passing game is 4th in EPA per dropback.
Much like Navy was before they played the Irish, they were practically automatic when they get scoring opportunities. They’re 1st in points per Eckel and 7th in red zone touchdown percentage.
It’s been very difficult to prevent them from playing keep away with the football. They’re 1st in 3rd/4th down success rate and have converted an amazing 16 of 19 on 4th down this season.
Potential Weaknesses
I mentioned the pace that they play at and it’s an impossible pace to play at if they get behind by a couple of scores. They haven’t had to do that all season, though. This is an offense that has faced pretty much zero adversity when QB Bryson Daily has been healthy.
Even when he was not healthy against Air Force, they scored on the first possession of the game and never gave up the lead. The only time they have trailed all season was when they gave up an opening drive field goal to North Texas and they’ve only lost three turnovers all season.
These were the same kind of questions everyone had when Notre Dame played Navy and that team crumbled when they had pressure put on them.
Notre Dame is tied for first in turnovers forced. The Irish are also tied for second in blocked kicks. There’s a very good chance that Army’s offense is going to play more snaps in this game where they feel a pressure to perform than they have at any point this season.
Personnel notes
#13 QB Bryson Daily
- 6-0 221
- 8th in ESPN’s QBR
- 901 rushing in ‘23
- physical runner
- 12 rushes of 20+ yards, 8th
- long of 36, not a breakaway speed guy
- 1,062 yards, 21 rushing TDs
- 12.6 YPA would be 1st in the country if he qualified with enough throws
- ADOT on play-action is 21.0 yards
- ADOT on all throws is 18.3 yards
- 56.9% completions, 7 TDs to 1 INT
- 31 missed tackles forced
#10 QB Dewayne Coleman
- 5-10 190
- had a QBR of 4.7 in his only start vs Air Force
- 5 for 8, 6.0 YPA, ADOT of 9.0 yards in that game
- 16 carries, 3.0 YPC, 4 missed tackles forced in that game
#6 RB Kanye Udoh
- good inside runner
- 5.3 YPC, 524 in ‘23
- 20.9mph on GPS on 60-yard TD vs Tulsa
- 20.6mph on GPS on 61-yard TD vs Tulsa
- 5 rushes of 40+ yards, tied for 4th
- 850 yards, 6.6 YPC
#8 RB Hayden Reed
- 6-0 215
- 19 carries, 4.9 YPC
#21 RB Tyrell Robinson
- 5-9 190
- 8.45 YPC in ‘22, not healthy in ‘23
- played in last three games after missing start of the season
- 7.7 YPC
#33 FB Jake Rendina
- 5-11 255
- 4.0 YPC, long of 9
#15 SB Noah Short
- 6-0 182
- led team in receptions in ‘23
- moved from WR
- 7 rushes of 20+ yards
- 23.5 per catch
- 80 yard reception vs Syracuse last season
- 41 carries, 10.7 YPC
- great speed
#27 SB Samari Howard
- 5-7 182
- 19 carries, 5.4 YPC
#4 Liam Fortner
- 6-1 203
- only one target, zero catches
- very good blocker
#87 WR Casey Reynolds
- 6-2 192
- 5 receptions of 30+ yards, averaging 27.1 per catch on 12 catches
- top PFF receiving grade of any WR with 20+ targets
- ADOT is 23.6 yards
- explosive reception in six games this season
- also plays lacrosse for Army
#84 WR Cam Schurr
- 6-1 192
- 6 catches for 74 yards
- average blocker
#85 TE David Crossan
- 6-3 246
- primary TE
- just a guy
#83 TE Teddy Williams
- 6-4 257
- gets after it as a blocker
#44 TE Parker Poloskey
- 6-4 240
- 1 target
- primarily a run blocker
- sometimes shift to tackle when they are unbalanced the other way
#60 LT Connor Finucane
- 6-4 315
- multi-year starter
- over 2,500 career snaps
- has had issues with penalties
- won state as a wrestler in HS
#77 LT Jordyn Law
- 6-4 290
- over 1,300 career snaps
- backup LT
- elite discus thrower in HS
#65 RT Lucas Scott
- 6-3 305
- multi-year starter
- been great as a run blocker
- successful wrestler in HS
#53 LG Bill Katsigiannis
- 6-1 290
- first year starter
#71 RG Paolo Gennarelli
- 6-1 310
- first year starter
- played well, allowed 0 pressures on pass plays this season
#59 Will Jeffcoat
- 6-2 304
- missed 2023 with an injury, two starts in ‘22
- backup
RG #51 C Brady Small
- 6-0 313
- 2nd team All-AAC in the preseason
- works well on combo blocks
- has a tougher time with DTs nose up on him
Key for Notre Dame
Punish Daily
Daily has been a stud for them this season. He’s already over 1,000 yards rushing and he’s the most valuable player to their offense and team.
He’s averaging 21.8 carries per game. Against North Texas, in the closest game they’ve had this season, he carried the ball a season-high 36 times. If he does that against Notre Dame, he may have a tough time finishing the game. There aren’t many defenses that are more physical at all three levels and though Daily will hand out his share of punishment as a runner, he’ll feel it a lot more being tackled by Notre Dame than other defenses he’s faced.
They need to punish him on every carry and wear him down.
Defense
Army’s defense has been consistently solid under defensive coordinator Nate Woody. They are a quintessential bend, but don’t break defense.
Though they don’t cause many negative plays (85th in havoc rate), they don’t give up points. They’re 39th in DF+, 4th in points per drive, 3rd in stop rate, and 8th in YPP.
Just like on offense, they’ve faced a schedule that is a regular cornucopia of bad offenses. North Texas is the only above average one they’ve faced (35th in OF+), but the other seven FBS offenses are ranked 93rd, 99th, 116th, 120th, 121st, 125th, and 126th in DF+. (WOOF)
Expected Strengths
It’s a well-coached group that plays well within the scheme. They tackle well and have only allowed one rush of 20+ yards all season. That’s not a typo.
In terms of “don’t break”, they’ve been elite. Army is 7th in points per Eckel and 5th in red zone touchdown percentage. North Texas had four trips to the red zone and only got one field goal out of it. That’s the biggest reason Army won that game.
Although they aren’t creating a ton of havoc, they have certainly been opportunistic. 14 interceptions from their defense is top-10 in the country.
Potential Weaknesses
The pass defense isn’t good. They’re allowing 64.6% completions vs FBS competition this season, which is 106th in the country. They aren’t exactly playing a bunch of great quarterbacks either. The top one in QBR is North Texas’ Chandler Morris (66th). Only one other quarterback they’ve faced is ranked in the top-100.
The reason why I used opportunistic with those interceptions is because they aren’t exactly making a ton of plays on the football. They’re 101st in passes defended per game. They don’t have great talent in the secondary.
They don’t have the type of talent up front that can truly impact the game rushing the passer. They’re 101st in pass rush grade and only have one defensive lineman that has a pass rush win rate over 8%.
The run defense has bent. 82nd in rushing success rate is not a good number and if Notre Dame’s backs and quarterbacks are getting to the second level this often, those have eventually turned into explosive runs against everyone.
It’s a solid group, but they lack playmakers. 88th in TFLs per game and only one forced fumble this season sums that up pretty nicely.
Personnel notes
#18 Edge Elo Modozie
- 6-3 245
- team leading 21 pressures
- their best pass rusher
- 23.4% win rate vs true pass sets
- 4.5 sacks
- all-state triple jump, school record for long jump
#40 Edge Eric Ford
- 6-3 240
- will drop out into the flat
- decent rotation player
- 3 TFLs
#91 Edge Trey Sofia
- 6-6 240
- some nice flashes as a pass rusher
- meh vs the run
#95 Edge Kyle Lewis
- 6-3 280
- above average player vs run
- not dynamic as a pass rusher, but good motor
- 4 sacks
#52 NT Kody Harris-Miller
- 6-1 301
- will force a double
- good two-down player
- 5 TFLs
- two-time all-state in HS
#62 DL Jacob Tuioti
- 6-1 276
- backup nose
- plays hard, but can get moved at POA
#92 DL Jack Latore
- 6-5 275
- Just a guy, non-factor vs the pass
#53 LB Kalib Fortner
- 6-1 220
- 2nd in tackles
- disruptive blitzer, 2nd in PFF pass rush grade for LBs in ‘23
- leads the team in stops
- much better in the run than in coverage
- 7.5 TFLs
#51 Andon Thomas
- 6-0 222
- leads the team in tackles
- physical, downhill run defender
- good on Green Dog blitzes
#36 Brett Gerena
- 6-0 230
- good vs inside run game
- 3 sacks, good blitzer
#2 LB Chance Keith
- 5-11 200
- space backer/big nickel
- Someone they can get after in coverage
#6 S Max DiDimoneco
- 6-0 215
- 2nd team All-AAC in preseason
- 2 INTs in ‘23
- reliable, multi-year starter
- plays well in the box
- 6.5 havoc plays
#20 S Casey Larkin
- 6-0 189
- plays well positionally, not a great tackler in space
- 21.4% missed tackle percentage
- aligned in the slot often
- 3 INTs
- 6.5 havoc plays
#7 CB Jaydan Mayes
- 5-10 183
- their best corner
- three INTs
- only two explosives allowed all season
- 6.5 havoc plays
#28 CB Donovan Platt
- 5-11 204
- two interceptions
- only allowed 37.7 NFL passer rating against this season
- very little ball production in his career
#5 CB Justin Weaver
- 5-11 191
- two INTs
- a solid third corner who keeps things in front of him
Key for Notre Dame
Cut out the early down mistakes
I think it’s pretty simple because if they are on schedule, the offense hums. When they get behind the sticks, they struggle.
Stay on schedule and make Army have to tackle Notre Dame’s skill guys, who are on a higher level than the players Army has had to defend this season.
Special Teams
The kicking game hasn’t been a big factor for them this season because it hasn’t had to be. They go for it on 4th down so often and K Trey Gronnotte has not had to attempt a long field goal this season.
The return game hasn’t been great, but they have had success blocking kicks in recent seasons. CB Jabrill Williams has blocked two punts in his career that he’s returned for touchdowns. Edge Elo Modozie blocked a field goal earlier this season versus Rice and there are three other players on the roster who have blocked kicks during their college careers.
The holder Matthew Rhodes has run two fakes this season and both were successful. One early in the season went for a 23-yard touchdown. They also ran a fake punt with LB Andon Thomas for a touchdown.
They’re 41st in SF+.
K Trey Gronotte
- 5 of 5 field goals
- has not attempted a field goal of 40+ yards this season
- 61% of his kickoffs have gone for touchbacks
P James Wagenseller
- 42.1 per punt
- 40.7 net per punt, 43rd in the country
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