Scouting Report | USC
It was seen as a major coup for USC to hire Lincoln Riley away from Oklahoma. Considered the best play-caller in college football with a track record of elite quarterback development, he’d bring flash and likely star quarterback Caleb Williams with him to Los Angeles.
He delivered on both in his first season as the Trojan lit up scoreboards and Williams cemented a Heisman trophy season with an emphatic win over Notre Dame in their regular season finale. Riley was 11-1 with a shot to make the College Football Playoff. USC fans couldn’t have asked for much better than that.
It headed in the wrong direction after that.
Riley lost to Utah for a second time that season and is 14-12 since that win over Notre Dame. Included in that was a beatdown by the Irish in South Bend last fall.
To say the stakes are high for this game is an understatement. It’s a “win and you’re in” scenario for Notre Dame with the CFP. It’s not a must-win for Riley to keep his job at USC, not with that buyout, but it would definitely improve the vibes around a program that is a lot worse than they were in his first season.
USC is bowl-eligible at 6-5, but all of those five losses came by one score (an average of 3.5 points). They’ve been in every game they’ve played and at 21st in F+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking), they are better than their record would indicate. Notre Dame was better in 2016 than their record would have indicated as well, but no one would confuse them with being good.
Everyone should expect a kitchen sink approach from Riley and his staff in a rivalry game that is way more important than he has previously acknowledged.
Offense
Last year I wrote this about Riley:
No one uses the entire field better, puts stress on defenders more often, and knows how to get the ball to his playmakers in space more consistently than Riley. He does all of that and also manages to run the football well, often because of depleted numbers inside left to defend it.
All of that is still true, but he definitely hasn’t had the same mojo this season because of some holes with their roster. Ranked 18th in OF+, 28th in YPP (vs FBS and no garbage time), and 33rd in points per drive, they decided to make a change at quarterback when they dropped to 4-5.
The hope was that it would give a spark to the offense and they’d also get a better evaluation of QB Jayden Maiava. The spark part of it is debatable. They failed to score 30 points in the last two wins, which is on par with what they’ve done most of this season.
They scored 30+ in only three of eight games versus power conference opponents with Miller Moss starting at QB. Under Riley at Oklahoma, they scored 30 or more in 84.4% of his games with him as offensive coordinator or head coach. His USC offense had scored 30 or more points in 21 of 25 games with Caleb Williams as his quarterback.
They still have great athletes, but aren’t as explosive as they typically were with Williams at quarterback.
Last season’s game against Notre Dame was a low point for USC’s offense. It is the lowest YPP for any USC or Oklahoma offense under Riley.
Notre Dame had a 28.3% Havoc rate, gave up only 2.7 YPP on 1st down, 2.1 YPA on 1st down, and Williams NFL passer rating was only 51.5. It was his worst game as a Trojan.
If there wasn’t enough to motivate Riley already, I’m sure that will motivate him because his offense has rarely been humbled like that.
Expected Strengths
The skill talent is still pretty scary, though not consistent. WR Makai Lemon has emerged as the player people expected Zachariah Branch to be. He’s a threat whenever he touches the football and he’s had 30 catches for 450 yards since the Penn State game.
They have run the ball well with Woody Marks leading the way. USC is 13th in EPA per rush and Riley does a great job of scheming up big plays in the running game.
Maiava adds more of an element as a runner, but he hasn’t been used that way often in these two games. His ability to escape the rush adds a different dynamic for them and he improvised on USC’s only touchdown against UCLA.
They get into scoring positions frequently and are 20th in Eckel rate. They’re 25th in 3rd down conversion rate as well.
Potential Weaknesses
The offensive line isn’t good as a unit. They have two future pros on the interior and LT Elijah Paige has been getting better and better, but the other two starters are below average.
They’ve been fortunate to be healthy all season on the line as well. Depth is an issue if one of their starters goes down.
They’re 109th in PFF’s pass block grading. It’s harder for them to get the ball down the field as much as they want to when they can’t protect for long enough.
They’ve fumbled the ball 15 times and have been lucky to recover 60% of those. Turnovers could prove to be an issue in this game and Maiava’s history of putting the ball up for grabs at UNLV is something to monitor against Notre Dame’s defense.
The first game with Maiava looked pretty good (87th percentile in EPA per play vs Nebrasksa, 7.4 YPP). The second game against UCLA wasn’t pretty (24th percentile vs UCLA, 5.1 YPP). With a full game for UCLA to watch of Maiava, USC was 4 of 14 on 3rd down and the offense scored only one touchdown on five red zone trips. They won the game with a trick play late and because their defense held down a UCLA offense that is 93rd in OF+.
Personnel notes
#14 QB Jayden Maiava
- 6-4 220
- UNLV transfer
- 63.5% completions, 3,085 yards, 8.7 YPA, 17 TDs in 2023
- 70th in QBR, 94th in rushing EPA in ‘23
- can escape the rush, improv and run
- good arm talent
- can lock on to WRs, 3rd in turnover-worthy play % in ‘23, 10 INTs
- 48th in QBR this season
- 13 carries for 59 yards as a runner, 4.5 YPC, 2 TDs
- three fumbles
- pick-six and fumble vs Nebraska
- hot and cold in both starts
- 7.4 YPA, 3 TDs, 71.4% completions vs Nebraska
- 54.3% completions, 6.3 YPA, 1 TD vs UCLA
- only 4.9 YPA vs the blitz
- went under center twice for play-action fakes in red zone vs UCLA
#7 QB Miller Moss
- 6-2 205
- 30th in QBR
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- 6 TDs, 11.3 YPA in last year’s bowl game
- started out strong, but ended up getting benched
- 12 passes batted down at the LOS
- 6 starts where YPA was under 7.0
- 7 INTs this season came when teams rushed 4 or less
- good ball placement to the boundary on back shoulder targets
#4 RB Woody Marks
- 5-10 208
- Miss St transfer
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- 35 runs of 10+ yards, tied for 13th
- 210 receptions at Miss St, very good hands
- leads team in receptions with 47, must account for him
- 1,100 yards, 5.7 YPC this season
- 65-yard run vs Michigan
- six games with 100+ yards
- runs hard through contact
- reads it well on counters
- jump cut and explode
- 4.13 short shuttle, 36.1 vert, 11.16 100m in HS
#0 RB Quinten Joyner
- 5-11 216
- 6.9 YPC as true freshman
- 395, 7.5 YPC this season
- 75 yard TD run vs Penn State
- runs a bit upright, but make you miss ability
- two fumbles this season
- 10.99 100m, elite shot put thrower in HS
#6 WR Makai Lemon
- 5-11 190
- leads team in receiving with 532 yards, 14.4 per catch
- 5 catches for 30+ yards
- threw a double pass for 39 yards vs UCLA
- electric ability after the catch, 8.8 YAC per reception is 10th in the country
- breakout game vs Rutgers with long kick return and big play on a slant after the catch
- watch him on crossers
- had a 20+ yard reception in every game but one since PSU game
- includes two 60+ yard TDs
- dynamic two-way start in HS
#10 WR Kyron Hudson
- 6-1 205
- attempted a pass vs Michigan that was batted down
- 36 for 436, 12.1 per catch
- solid, good hands
- boxes out well
- not dynamic
#1 WR Zachariah Branch
- 5-10 175
- Nevada champ in 100m, 200m, and long jump
- 10.33 100m in HS
- 129 broad jump, 4.11 short shuttle in high school
- elite change of direction and acceleration, 1.44 10yards
- 23.2mph on GPS last season
- gadget player for them in ‘23
- 43 for 458 this fall
- had 46 yard KO return vs LSU, but not much else
- had a punt return and KR TDs in ‘23
- 8.0 YAC per reception, dangerous whenever he has space
- lacks polish as a receiver, struggles to win in contested situations
- has had issues with drops
- only used twice as a runner this season
#2 WR Duce Robinson
- 6-6 220
- 21.3mph on GPS last season
- Big time baseball player
- 21.3 per reception on 16 catches as true freshman
- more of a matchup problem with his speed than size -
struggled to adjust to some back shoulder throws
- 10th in EPA per target
- hit 21.0mph on TD vs Nebraska
- 20 for 333, 16.6 per reception
- only 5 of 15 on contested catches
#8 WR Ja’Kobi Lane
- 6-4 195
- 33 for 372, 11.3 per catch
- had reps decrease in recent weeks
- red zone target, throw it up to him
- 11.8 ADOT
#81 WR Kyle Ford
- 6-1 225
- UCLA transfer, started out at USC
- 17 for 217, 12.8 per catch
- strength after the catch
- build up speed, ability to high point the football
- consistent contributor for multiple seasons
- 4.25 short shuttle, 35.6 vert in HS
#9 WR Jay Fair
- Auburn transfer
- slot
- 8 for 98 this season
- depth piece, 31 catches at Auburn in ‘23
#87 TE Lake McCree
- 6-4 250
- good after the catch, 7.2 YAC per reception in ‘23
- 26 for 262 last season
- 23 for 243 this season
- not a good blocker, basically a big WR
#88 TE Kade Eldridge
- 6-4 250
- 3 catches on 5 targets
- not targeted since Wisconsin game
- not a good run blocker
#85 TE Walker Lyons
- 6-4 235
- true freshman, returned from Mormon mission
- 5 for 25 this season
- long levers, plus athlete at the position
- primarily brought in for multiple TE sets
#72 LT Elijah Paige
- 6-7 320
- ascending player
- long, great feet
- has been very good against average players
- the teams with better edge rushers have given him a tough time
#76 RT Mason Murphy
-6-5 315
- below average player
- a turnstile vs Michigan
- allowed 9 pressures in the last 3 games
- 10 penalties this season
#73 RT Tobias Raymond
- 6-7 315
- played early and struggled
- has been used as an inline TE
#70 LG Emmaneul Pregnon
- 6-5 320
- Started out at Wyoming
- Considered one of the top guards in the Mountain West in ‘22
- Massive frame
- Senior Bowl Watchlist
- moves really well for a big man, 17.8mph on GPS, 1.68 10yard
- benched 315 x 10
- their best run blocker
#77 RG Alani Noa
- 6-4 335
- 5 games giving up multiple pressures
- inconsistent
- below average starter who has trouble with quicker DTs
#75 RG Amos Talalele
- 6-4 340
- played early in the season when they were struggling up front
- had a tough time in the Michigan game vs their DTs
#79 C Jonah Monheim
- 6-5 310
- Started at multiple positions
- 11 penalties in 2022
- Good mobility, developed into a very good player in pass pro
- 10th in Power 5 PFF pass blocking grade for tackles in ‘23
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- their best OL, played both tackle spots at a high level
Key for Notre Dame
Whoop them up front
Go back and look at every Notre Dame win in this series and one consistent theme is the defensive line dominating their matchup with USC’s offensive line. That has to happen again in this game.
If Notre Dame is resetting the line of scrimmage and putting pressure on Maiava, then it’s going to be a long day for USC’s offense.
Defense
If they hadn’t spent all that money to completely rebuild the staff on defense, they’d be in a world of trouble with the regression on offense. Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn and all of the other additions have been huge for them.
In Lynn’s one season at UCLA, they went from 87th to 12th in DF+. The defense has made huge strides at USC this fall as well. They’ve gone 100th to 32nd in DF+, which would be the first top-40 defense that a Riley team has ever had in a full season.
They’re 73rd in YPP (FBS and no garbage time), 44th in point per drive, and 42nd in stop rate. They have some depth issues across the board and lost two key front six pieces for the season (LB Eric Gentry and Edge Anthony Lucas), but they are well coached with good young talent up front and intelligent players in the secondary.
Expected Strengths
They’re 25th in 3rd/4th down success and 15th in 3rd down conversion rate. They do a great job of keeping things in front of them and tackle well as a defensive unit.
They’re 23rd in red zone touchdown percentage. The massive improvements they’ve made with situational defense is a reflection of the upgrades on the coaching staff.
USC hasn’t given up many explosive plays in the passing game. They’re 27th in receptions of 20+ yards allowed and the safety play has been a big part of this.
The defensive line has batted down 11 passes this season. It’s clearly been a point of emphasis with the group.
Potential Weaknesses
Much like with Army, there’s been a lot of bend, but don’t break with their defense. Opposing FBS quarterbacks are completing 67.7% of their passes against them (128th) and they’re 104th in success rate per dropback.
Tackling well has been the reason why they haven’t been gashed for big plays, but they’ve also haven’t played many good offenses. Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Washington, Maryland, and UCLA are all 62nd or below in OF+. They avoided playing any of the good offenses in the Big Ten outside of Penn State.
They gave up over 400 yards passing to PSU (9.1 YPA) and TE Tyler Warren pretty much won the Mackey Award based off the game he had against them. He had 224.
With all of those meh offenses, they’re still 107th in early down EPA. Teams have completed 71.9% of their passes on 1st down and averaged 9.0 YPA. They’re also giving up 4.95 yards per carry on 1st down. If Notre Dame is having this kind of success on 1st down against USC, they’re going to break something.
They’re 83rd in havoc rate, 117th in TFLs per game, and 112th in sack percentage. They have some young edge rushers with big time potential, but it’s more about flashes than anything consistent. They don’t get enough disruption from the interior defensive line as well.
Linebacker depth is a serious issue for them. They pretty much roll with the two starters, Mascarenas-Arnold and Cobb, with the third linebacker a true freshman.
We may see Notre Dame play heavier in this game to get more linebackers on the field and if one of those starters were to go down, they’d be in a lot of trouble at the position. Michigan played heavy and ran for 290 against them (6.3 YPC).
That was earlier in the season and they’ve shuffled a lot of personnel since then, but that’s notable because Michigan couldn’t do anything but run the football in that game. They’re top-three edge defenders are first and second year players. These are players Notre Dame is going to want to test in the running game.
Personnel notes
#34 Edge Braylan Shelby
- 6-5 265
- 5 havoc plays
- leads the team in pressures with 19 in 10 games
- 12 came in 3 of last 4 games
- great traits
- elite triple jump 45-0 at 235 in HS
#10 Edge Jamil Muhammad
- 6-1 260
- started out at GA State
- undersized, good motor
- 13.5 havoc plays last fall, 0.5 TFLs this fall
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- starter who has played less in recent weeks
- can run at him
- 4.41 short shuttle, 30.0 vert in HS at 217
- HS QB
#44 Edge Sam Greene
- 6-1 255
- 3 TFLs
- 4 pressures vs UCLA
- twitch, plays with good leverage
- was used as a spy when they rushed three
#49 Edge Kamryn Fountain
- 6-6 265
- true freshman, started last two games
- 2.5 TFLs
- dude qualities, impressive athlete
- a ton of raw talent as a pass rusher
- 35% win rate vs true pass sets in small sample size
#58 Edge Solomon Tuliaupupu
- 6-3 247
- injuries have limited him his entire career
- sack vs Nebraska
- solid POA run defender
- missed the UCLA game with an injury
#91 DT Gavin Meyer
- 6-3 290
- Wyoming transfer
- 3 passes batted down, 5 havoc plays
- blocked a FG vs Michigan
- solid 1-tech, leads their DTs in snaps
- good snap anticipation, 16.9% win rate vs true pass sets
- consistent punch, pops on film as best interior DL for them
#98 DT Devin Thompkins
- 6-5 285
- batted down 3 passes, 5.5 havoc plays
- inconsistent player, only 14 snaps vs UCLA was lowest since middle of the season
#99 DT Nate Clifton
- 6-4 295
- Vandy transfer
- led Vandy in snaps in ‘23, play multiple alignments
- added 20 pounds from last season
- strong vs the run
- bull rush, but limited pass rusher
- 4 havoc plays
#94 DT Kobe Pepe
- 6-2 315
- rotation player, just a guy
- 27.9 vert, 4.57 short shuttle at 290 in HS
#4 LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold
- 6-0 231
- Oregon St transfer
- multi-year starter for them
- 1st team All-Pac-12 in ‘23
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- 2 INTs, 8 havoc plays
- leads team in tackles
- great feel as a blitzer
- limited in coverage
- allowed 313 yards after the catch when targeted
#13 LB Mason Cobb
- 6-2 230
- was 2nd team All-Big 12 at Okie St in ‘22, 13 TFLs
- big impact as a blitzer at Okie St
- struggled last season, but playing faster in this scheme
- 2 INTs, pick six vs Wisconsin
- 7.5 havoc plays, 2nd in tackles for USC
- big hitter
- playing more within the system this season
- 4.31 short shuttle, 29.1 vert in HS
#23 LB Desman Stephens
- 6-3 233
- true freshman, played DB/WR in HS
- 1 INT, 3 havoc plays
- played a handful of plays as the 3rd LB, alert when he’s in the game
- very good athlete who made an impact on both sides of the ball in HS
#7 S Kamari Ramsey
- 6-0 204
- UCLA transfer
- 12.5 havoc plays in 9 games
- had a rough game vs Maryland, but been solid all season
- intelligent player
#0 S Akili Arnold
- 6-0 200
- Oregon St transfer, multi-year starter
- double digit havoc plays in ‘23
- only 1.5 havoc plays this fall
- 130.6 NFL passer rating when targeted this fall
- just seems a half-step slow this season
#8 S Zion Branch
- 6-2 210
- 5 havoc plays
- depth piece with the man coverage skills to match up with TEs
- 128 inch broad jump, 4.59 40, 4.3 short shuttle in HS
- 11.14 100m, 22.38 200m in HS
#27 S Bryson Shaw
- 6-0 190
- started out at Ohio State
- starter at OSU in ‘21 who lost starting job
- limited player who has been exposed in coverage
- 11 receptions 124 and three touchdowns given up vs Colorado in ‘23
- played more as a box defender this season
- high level lacrosse player in HS
#2 CB Jaylin Smith
- 5-11 190
- accepted an invite to the Senior Bowl
- played nickel last season, moved to outside CB
- when they play Dime, he moves inside
- good run defender
- beat for a long touchdown out of the slot vs Chris Tyree last season
- 7 havoc plays
#19 CB John Humphrey
- 6-2 196
- UCLA transfer
- 3 PBUs
- starter at UCLA, third or fourth CB for USC
- 4.06 short shuttle, 35.2 vert, 4.65 40 in HS
#14 CB Jacobe Covington
- 6-2 200
- started out at Washington
- 4 havoc plays
- strong tackler
- can test him vertically
- 11.07 100m in HS
#17 CB Decarlos Nicholson
- 6-3 195
- Miss St transfer, started 7 games in ‘23
- HS QB who converted to DB at junior college
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- 5 PBUs -
only 1 missed tackle all season
- depth piece
#21 Nickel Greedy Vance
- 5-11 170
- FSU transfer, started out at Louisville
- arrived at USC after spring after losing nickel job at FSU
- 360 snaps at FSU in ‘23 on a very good defense
- 5 havoc plays
- 65.9 NFL passer rating in coverage from the slot this season
- allowed only 2 completions of 20+ yards all season
- only 1 missed tackle all season
- game-sealing INT vs Nebraska
- 35.8 vert, 4.2 short shuttle in HS at 150 pounds
- 6 career INTs
#16 CB/NickelProphet Brown
- 5-11 190
- cooked vs Rutgers from the slot
- 10.9 100m in HS
Key for Notre Dame
Whoop them up front
Yep, this is the message on both sides of the ball. This is a team that is very young on the defensive line and Notre Dame needs to challenge them. If the Irish are the more physically dominant/violent team on offense, they’ll control the game.
Special Teams
They’re 45th in SF+ and have a couple of dynamic return options with Branch and Lemon. Branch hasn’t been a difference-maker on punt returns this season, but he averaged 22.1 per return last season and can flip the field in an instant.
Lemon has become the primary kick returner and he’s averaging 29.4 yards per return. He’s had four returns over 40 yards this season, including one for 81 against Rutgers.
They’ve had two field goals blocked this season against Maryland and Nebraska. (Bryce Young alert)
P Eddie Czaplicki has been one of the best in the country this season. K Michael Lantz has not been reliable with anything over 40 yards and he’s also missed two kick inside of 30 yards.
#96 K Michael Lantz
- 5-11 190
- GA Southern transfer, started out at Minnesota
- 70% FGs this season
- has missed two inside 30 yards, 4 of 8 beyond 40 yards
- 70% touchbacks on kickoffs
- 23 of 28, long of 48 at GA Southern in ‘23
#16 P Eddie Czaplicki
- 6-1 207
- previously at Arizona St
- 48.75 per punt, 2nd in the country
- 46.2 per punt is 1st -
43.3 per punt in ‘23
Men's Under Armour Kelly Green Notre Dame Fighting Irish Halftime Cuffed Knit Hat