Notre Dame fans are in a unique and somewhat envious position this weekend.
Their team has already secured a home game in the first-ever College Football Playoff. The only questions remaining are what seed the Irish will get, who they’ll be facing in the first round and who they would be potentially set up to play in the quarterfinals.
We’ll get the final answers to those questions with the release of the official College Football Playoff rankings on Sunday. But we’ll get a good idea of what to expect after today’s conference championship games.
Once again, there is a major difference between rankings and seedings. The seedings come from the rankings, so the rankings aren’t necessarily meaningless, but in the end, only the seedings matter.
The highest-ranking four conference champions will be seeded in order 1-4. The rest of the field will be decided based on rankings, although the Big 12 and ACC champions are also guaranteed spots in the playoff regardless of their final rankings.
Notre Dame is #4 in this week’s CFP Rankings, but would be seeded 6th in the current mock bracket by virtue of #8 SMU and #10 Boise State jumping into the top four as presumed conference champions.
With last night’s win over UNLV, Boise State has secured its spot in the top 4. It’s safe to assume the winners of the Big Ten and SEC conference championship games will also be included in that top 4. If #SMU beats #17 Clemson, the Mustangs will likely end up with the #3 spot. But if the Tigers pull off the upset, it’ll come down to them and the winner of the Big 12 title game between #15 Arizona State and #16 Iowa State for that final first-round bye with Boise State likely moving up from #4 to #3.
OK, so who should Irish fans be rooting for today?
Let’s assume the most advantageous position for the Irish is to be seeded as high as possible, #5. That would put them in position to face the lowest-ranked overall team in the field in Round 1 and potentially the lowest ranked Top 4 team if they reach the Quarterfinals.
Despite currently being ranked 4th and seeded 6th and not having a game this weekend, Notre Dame has a tremendous opportunity to move up one spot in the rankings and the seedings.
Big 12 Championship
Noon, ABC
#15 Arizona State vs. #16 Iowa State
This game won’t have any impact on where the Irish land as neither will be able to jump Notre Dame in the overall rankings. But it is definitely worth watching as there’s a good chance the winner could be the Irish’s first-round opponent and possibly a Quarterfinal opponent.
ROOT FOR: Whoever you think Notre Dame would match up best against.
SEC Championship
4, ABC
#2 Texas vs. #5 Georgia
If the Bulldogs beat Texas, Georgia would surely jump Notre Dame and there’s a chance the Longhorns would remain ahead of the Irish as well, especially if it’s a close game. If Texas wins, they would obviously stay ahead of the Irish, but it’s almost impossible to imagine the Bulldogs moving up.
ROOT FOR: Texas
Big Ten Championship
8, CBS
#1 Oregon vs. #3 Penn State
Whether Texas takes care of business or not, this is the most important game on the slate for Irish fans.
The winner will surely remain ahead of Notre Dame and the loser could as well, especially if it’s the Ducks. There’s been some chatter that the Nittany Lions could stick at #3 even if they lose. I see that as unlikely, but not impossible. If the game isn’t close, though, it won’t matter.
ROOT FOR: Oregon…big.
ACC Championship
8, ABC
#8 SMU vs. #17 Clemson
A sneaky important game for Irish fans to pay attention to, although what the result means for Notre Dame is up for interpretation.
If SMU wins, it will almost certainly get the #3 seed and Boise State will be slotted #4.
If Clemson wins, the Tigers are likely to get the #12 seed while the Broncos would likely move up to #3 with the Big 12 Champion probably scooping up that #4 seed.
ROOT FOR: SMU, IF…you’d like a potential matchup against the Big 12 champ in Round 1 and Boise State in Round 2.
ROOT FOR: Clemson IF…you’d like a home game against the Tigers in Round 1 and a potential matchup with that Big 12 champ in Round 2.
Of course, things will change a bit if the Big Ten game, which will be played at the same time is looking tight or even going Penn State’s way. Or if Georgia has already beat Texas.
There’s a good chance the Irish could stay at the #6 seed or even fall to #7 if Georgia and Penn State win close games.
If that’s the case, things will start getting a bit unpredictable. But, if you want more chaos - and chaos that could presumably help Notre Dame - it’d probably be worth rooting for Clemson.
A Clemson win would guarantee the Tigers a spot without necessarily eliminating SMU. If SMU were to remain in the field as an at-large team, that would likely come at the expense of…Alabama.
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