Scouting Report | Indiana
If I told you back in August that Notre Dame was going to host a home playoff game back, no one would be overly surprised. If I told you their opponent would be the Indiana Hoosiers, I would have been laughed at.
Indiana football hadn’t won nine games in a season since 1967. Lee Corso coached there for 10 seasons in the 1970s and had only two winning seasons. I don’t think mediocrity was celebrated in Bloomington, but it was pretty much considered a good season if it was achieved on the football field.
That’s all flipped now under Curt Cignetti. He inherited a program that had won nine games in the previous three years. Cignetti won 11 games in his first regular season in Bloomington and earned a spot in the College Football Playoff.
I’ll save everyone from having to Google him. Cignetti is a winner. He took teams at the D-II and FCS level to the playoffs eight times in 11 seasons. He’s gone 30-5 at the FBS level at James Madison and now Indiana. This season is not a fluke.
Cignetti brought eight starters with him from James Madison. 17 of the 22 starters on offense and defense are transfers. It’s not a fluke, but it’s also not normal.
They are ranked 9th in F+ (combined FEI and SP+ ranking). They’re 4th in net points per drive and have beaten their FBS opponents by an average of 29.3 points. They are a confident team and should be.
They are also a team that only played three teams in the F+ top-40 all season. One of those was a loss to Ohio State, a game where they got whooped. It was 31-7 in the 4th quarter until they scored a garbage time touchdown with 1:53 left in the game.
Indiana got the call up to the big leagues and have earned that opportunity. Their reward is a road game at Notre Dame against the hottest team in the country.
Offense
Louisville was the best offense Notre Dame’s defense faced this season (9th in OF+) and they gave the Irish all they could handle. Everyone should expect the same from Indiana. They aren’t as explosive as Louisville, but they are more efficient.
Working primarily out of 11 personnel, the scheme is catered to the strength of his players. With an accurate quarterback and a deep group of receivers, they’ve found a ton of success this season.
RPOs are a staple of their offense and they make a ton of decisions based on the number of players in the box dedicated to stopping the run. The offense is 4th in OF+, 15th in yards per play against FBS opponents (minus garbage time), and 3rd in points per drive.
Expected Strengths
It starts with the quarterback. Kurtis Rourke finished the regular season 1st in EPA per dropback and 1st in passing success rate. A sixth-year player with years of experience starting at Ohio, he’s a good-decision maker who helps the offense succeed running and throwing.
The line was a Joe Moore award semi-finalist and they are solid across the board in the run game with how well they play together. They’re 7th in EPA per rush and 3rd in early down EPA because they typically are able to maximize what the defense gives them.
They’ve been fantastic at delivering when they get scoring opportunities as well. They’re 1st in points per Eckel and 1st in red zone touchdown percentage. They’re also 8th in 3rd/4th down success rate.
They have good players, but a lot of what they have done has to be credited to the coaches with how they set up the offense to succeed and how well they’ve gotten the group to execute.
With multiple deep threats on the team, they will attack down the field. Rourke throws a good deep ball and they aren’t afraid to attack the middle of the field unlike a lot of other teams.
Potential Weaknesses
They have dominated every average to bad defense, but that hasn’t been the case against the two best defenses they went up against. That would be Ohio State (2nd in DF+) and Michigan (16th) and they scored 15 and 20 points against them. The combined YPP in those games for the Indiana offense was 3.45.
They got dominated by Michigan up front, especially in the second half when they managed to gain only 18 yards on 25. Ohio State was much better than them up front as well. After scoring on the first drive, they managed only 26 yards for the rest of the game until it hit garbage time.
Rourke and their receivers struggled a lot throwing against tight man coverage. He would pull the ball to throw RPOs, but their receivers weren’t winning their matchups. Rourke completed only two of eight pass attempts in the second half against Michigan for 2.5 yards per attempt. He averaged only 3.8 YPA in the entire game against Ohio State. With more pressure on him and tighter coverage, his ball placement on throws needed to be much better than it was.
The amount of sacks they’ve allowed lately is also concerning. They recently lost LG Drew Evans for the season with an Achilles tear and also lost starting RG Nick Kidwell in the preseason. Those replacements at guard have had a tough time in pass protection and the line in general had a very difficult time picking up the blitz against Ohio State (four sacks). The protection looked confused and they didn’t have answers.
Rourke has also fumbled seven times this season, so that is something to monitor.
Personnel notes
#9 QB Kurtis Rourke
- 6-5 223
- Ohio transfer, sixth year
- multi-year starter at Ohio, 1st team All-MAC in ‘22
- 3,256 passing yards, 25 TDs, 4 interceptions in ‘22
- tore ACL at the end of ‘22
- 3rd in QBR, best NFL passer rating out of Power 4 QBs
- projected day three pick
- 70.4% completions, 9.9 YPA, 27 TDs vs 4 INTs this season
- broke his thumb in the middle of October, accuracy dipped since then
- catchable ball, average arm with good touch
- generally good RPO decision maker, but threw a pick inside his own 10 vs Michigan
- one of the better QBs in the country on 3rd and long
- will take a hit to make a throw
- can run a bit, but not a dual-threat
- only 3.0 YPC, long of 12. Was a better runner before his ACL injury
- ADOT of 10.4 yards, good at layering throws over the middle
- has struggled with accuracy in tight windows
- bad games vs Ohio St and Michigan
- started 12 of 14 vs Michigan, finished 5 of 16
- can get stuck on first read
- 7 fumbles
- 23.9% of pressure turn into sacks, 10th worst for Power 4 QBs
- been sacked 11 times in final 3 games, 50% of the time pressure has turned into sacks
#2 QB Tayven Jackson
- 6-4 212
- started out at Tennessee
- backup, started the Washington game with Rourke out
- 57.9% completions, 6.5 YPA, 1 TD vs 1 INT vs UW
- 26 for 51 as a runner, fumbled vs FIU
- only 4.52 YPP vs UW, the offense took a step back with him
- 5 starts in ‘23, 2 TDs vs 5 INTs
- lost starting job after struggling, threw an INT in every start vs FBS opponents
#6 RB Justice Ellison
- 5-9 210
- Wake Forest transfer
- 3rd lowest stuff rate out of Big Ten backs
- attempted a pass vs Nebraska
- primarily a checkdown option in the pass game
- 11 catches for 84 yards
- 5.5 YPC, 811 and 10 TDs
- 4.43 40, 4.06 short shuttle, 35.6 vert in HS
- can make a defender miss in the hole, but had a lot of open running lanes
- good patience as a runner
- will use him as Wildcat in short yardage
- averaged less than 3.7 YPC in three of last four games
#17 RB Ty Son Lawton
- 5-9 208
- James Madison transfer, started out at Stony Brook
- caught a 35 yard screen pass vs Nebraska
- attempted a pass vs FIU
- 4.8 YPC, 634 and 12 TDs
- good short yardage back who runs hard through contact
- not great in pass pro
- has been more of the RB1 in the last few games
#8 RB Kaelon Black
- 5-10 210
- James Madison transfer, starter in ‘23
- 5.5 YPC, 2 TDs
- 3rd back who mostly plays in garbage time
- runs up right
#13 WR Elijah Surratt
- 6-2 209
- James Madison transfer, was FCS freshman All-American at St. Francis
- 1st team All-Sun Belt in ‘23
- 82 for 1,199 in ‘23
- 3rd team All-Big Ten
- leads team in targets by a wide margin
- 11 of 22 on contested catches
- 49 for 890 this season
- 19th in EPA per target, 15th in yards per target
- 17 receptions of 20+ yards
- nickname is “Waffle House” because he’s always open
- 18.1 per reception
- limited to 1 catch on 5 targets vs Michigan (Will Johnson was out), but was 36 yard TD on double move
- runs strong after the catch
- 4 catches for 76 yards combined vs OSU and Mich
- two big drops in the 4th Q vs Mich
#5 WR Ke’shawn Williams
- 5-9 189
- Wake Forest transfer
- 34 for 403 in ‘24
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- had a 52-yard tunnel screen vs Northwestern
- electric punt return making several guys miss to set up clinching FG vs Michigan
- 33.2 vert in HS
- 1st team all-conference in basketball in HS
#3 WR Omar Cooper Jr.
- 6-0 201
- 17th in EPA per target, 9th in yards per target
- 13 receptions of 20+ yards
- 21.1 per reception is sixth in the country
- ADOT is 15.8
- only 4 of 11 on contested targets
- adjusts well to back shoulder throws
- juice after the catch
- will go up and get the football
#19 WR Miles Cross
- Ohio transfer
- 5-11 210
- 47 catches in each of last two seasons at Ohio
- 1 for 8 on contested targets in ‘24
- 26 for 323
#4 WR Myles Price
- 5-9 183
- Texas Tech transfer
- extremely productive slot receiver, 191 career catches
- 33 for 410 in ‘24
- slippery after the catch
- 4.59 40, 4.37 short shuttle, 30.8 vert in HS
#44 TE Zach Horton
- 6-4 252
- James Madison transfer, 1st team All-Sun Belt in ‘23
- reliable receiver, but not a primary option
- 20 catches for 182 yards
- solid in-line blocker
#48 TE James Bomba
- 6-6 253
- only 1 target all season vs W Illinois
- 12 career catches
- average blocker
#65 LT Carter Smith
- 6-5 308
- two-year starter
- allowed a sack and three QB hits vs Michigan
- a bit soft vs long arm
- pretty good feet, volleyball player in HS
#75 RT Trey Wedig
- 6-7 319
- Wisconsin transfer
- starter there in ‘22
- has played well this season, but struggled vs Michigan and OSU
- 5 pressures in those two games
- can hop step at times
- inconsistent with punch
- runner-up in at state for shot put in HS
#74 RG Bray Lynch
- 6-5 307
- 1st year starter
- resident of struggle town vs Ohio St and Michigan
- extremely limited athlete, should attack him on stunts and blitzes
#77 LG Tyler Stevens
- 6-5 311
- James Madison transfer
- 30 starts at JMU, back up at IU
- replaced Drew Evans when he was injured
- whooped vs Michigan
#56 C Mike Katic
- 6-4 318
- 4-year starter, signed in 2019
- allowed 2 sacks vs Ohio State
Key for Notre Dame
Whoop them up front
It’s a simple formula, but one that always makes a difference. There is no doubt that they are going to test Notre Dame’s corners down the field, but Rourke and those receivers will have to make plays in tight coverage with pressure in his face. He does a good job keeping his eyes down the field, but that can come at the expense of not avoiding sacks.
Howard Cross and Rylie Mills will have an opportunity to take over this game and if Notre Dame is able to win up front and limit their running game, then the defensive line and Al Golden’s pressure packages can get after Rourke.
Defense
Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines is in his third season running the defense for Cignetti. The first two were at James Madison where they finished 33rd in DF+ in JMU’s first season at the FBS level. They were 37th last season and Indiana is 15th in DF+ in his first season in Bloomington.
The words he uses to describe what he wants his defense to be are fast, physical, and relentless. That’s pretty much standard talk for a defensive coordinator, but this group backs it up. They’re 5th in stop rate, 2nd in YPP (minus garbage time), and 10th in points per drive.
They haven’t played many good offenses, but they have gotten the job done against their opponents.
Haines does a great job with a lot of bluffs and simulated pressures to set up opportunities for his pass rushers to win one on one. They zone blitz a fair amount and do a great job of mixing up alignments to confuse blocking assignments with stunts mixed in to help them stop the run.
While they aren’t as talented up front as either Texas A&M or Louisville, I think this is the best all-around defense that Notre Dame has seen this season.
Expected Strengths
It is true that they haven’t faced a ton of great rushing offenses, but 3rd in rushing success rate and 11th in opponent adjusted EPA per rush are no joke. They’ve only allowed seven rushes of 20+ yards this season.
They create a lot of negative plays with the scheme. They’re top-10 in the country in havoc rate (21.2%) and 16th in tackles for loss per game vs FBS opponents. The pass rush plan and effective blitzes has helped them be 8th in PFF’s pass rush grades, but they do have players capable of winning across their front four.
That’s led by edge Mikail Kamara, who is in the same tier as Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton and Louisville’s Ashton Gillotte as a pass rusher. He’s a problem that they will have to account for.
They’re 16th in EPA per dropback and the pass rush has been a catalyst for them not giving up many explosive plays down the field as well. Teams have to get the ball out quickly against them and they rally up and tackle. They’re 3rd in explosive plays from scrimmage (20+ yards) against this season.
They’ve forced offenses into a ton of long yardage situations on 3rd down and they’re 6th in 3rd/4th down success rate. Only one team all season has converted more than 40% of their 3rd downs against them.
Potential Weaknesses
Here’s the part where context matters because they have had the good fortune of playing against average to downright bad offenses all season. Only one team (Ohio State) they played had an offense ranked in the top-60 in OF+.
I thought they played pretty well against OSU (3rd in OF+) and did well to limit a running game that was 8th in EPA per rush. They also had two big red zone stops early in the game.
OSU was also playing their first game without two starting offensive lineman, though. That had an impact on those red zone stops and what they could do in the run game.
Indiana’s defense was also carved up by QB Will Howard in the passing game, specifically on play-action. He went 10 of 11 and was getting the ball out quickly to slow down their pass rush. OSU did a great job of targeting edge Lanell Car in coverage when he dropped out.
He essentially plays their version of Notre Dame’s Vyper position and they will often drop him to the flat (27% of pass plays). He was the closest defender on passes to receivers Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate, and Jeremiah Smith. That’s where a lot of those zone pressures can come back to bite you and they did against Ohio State.
I mentioned the run defense as a strength because it has been, but they haven’t exactly faced a rushing attack like Notre Dame’s. Outside of Ohio State, Indiana faced rushing offenses that were ranked 122nd, 98th, 96th, 62nd, 110th, 55th, 49th, 80th, 32nd, 111th in EPA per rush. Notre Dame is 3rd and has the added element of Riley Leonard as a runner. He’ll be the biggest threat they’ve faced as a runner from the quarterback position.
Washington’s Jonah Coleman, a very good back, ran for over 100 yards against them and had seven missed tackles forced. The Washington run game ran for 5.0 YPC minus sack yardage as well.
While they are 36th in sack rate on the season, they’re 124th in sack rate over their last 3 games (2.47%, only 3 sacks). Two of those came against Purdue.
They generated a ton of pressure against Michigan, but on the road against Ohio State they struggled to affect Howard despite blitzing him on 50% of his dropbacks. OSU had a good plan that included a limited number of true pass sets (32.1%).
Kamara has averaged 5 pressures a game, but was shutout for the only time partly because of how OSU called the game and partly because they made sure to disrupt him with a tight end, chip him with a back, or bring a double team against him. OSU was playing a new starter at left tackle in this game as well.
If Kamara isn’t winning, the pass rush isn’t nearly as effective.
Personnel notes
#6 Edge Mikail Kamara
- 6-1 265
- James Madison transfer
- 1st team All-Big Ten
- 15 TFLs, 10 sacks
- 24.5 havoc plays at JMU in ‘23
- seen more double teams as the season has progressed
- 60 pressures is tied for 4th in the country amongst edges
- 26.4% win rate vs true pass sets
- shutout in terms of pressures vs Ohio St
- great lateral quickness, active hands
- if you present your hands early against him, you’re cooked
- variety of moves
#41 Edge Lanell Carr
- 6-2 246
- started out at WVU
- two-year starter at IU
- 31 pressures
- 18.9% win rate vs true pass sets
- 5 havoc plays, 10.5 in ‘23
- quick off the ball as a run defender
- 27.2 vert in HS
#7 Edge Jacob Mangum-Farrar
- 6-5 256
- started career at Stanford
- missed two seasons due to injury
- played off the ball, moved to edge by new staff
- flashes as a pass rusher, but had quiet season
- won 300m hurdles in his district as a junior in HS
#97 Edge Mario Landino
- 6-4 275
- freshman
- depth rotation player
#95 DT Tyrique Tucker
- 6-0 298
- James Madison transfer
- 19 pressures, plus pass rusher
- 5.5 havoc plays
#92 DT Marcus Burris Jr.
- 6-5 286
- started career at Texas A&M
- 3-tech
- just a guy
#8 DT CJ West
- 6-2 317
- Kent St transfer, multi-year starter
- nose guard
- can push the pocket as pass rusher
- good movement on stunts, good motor
- 6 missed tackles in the last 4 games
- has struggled to finish, but still has 6 TFLs
- HS LB
#99 DT James Carpenter
- 6-2 288
- James Madison transfer, twice All-Sun Belt
- disruptive 3-tech
- 16 havoc plays at JMU in ‘23
- 3+ pressures in each of last 6 games
- tied for 3rd in pressures for Power 4 DTs
- 5 sacks
- 1st team all-state in lacrosse in HS
- broke school record for shot put in HS
#91 Edge Daniel Ndukwe
- 6-3 239
- two blocked punts
#4 LB Aiden Fisher
- 6-1 233
- James Madison transfer
- 1st team All-Big Ten
- very good vs inside run
- someone who can be targeted in coverage
- leads the team in tackles with 109
- 9.5 havoc plays
- HS RB
#2 LB Jailin Walker
- 6-1 220
- James Madison transfer
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- All-Sun Belt 1st team in ‘23
- top speed of 22.5mph on GPS
- 40 inch vert
- 21 total havoc plays
- frequently a space backer
- a problem as a blitzer, 23 pressures
- 29.4% win rate vs true pass sets
- great on the perimeter beating blocks
- Played QB and RB in high school
#21 LB Rolijah Hardy
- 5-11 225
- freshman
- pick-six in garbage time vs W Illinois
- PT increased in recent weeks
- nine havoc plays
- pops as an athlete
- injuries in HS kept him under the radar
#46 LB Isaiah Jones
- 6-2 230
- lost snaps to Hardy
- 3.5 TFLs
- had elite shot put and discus results in HS
#25 S Amare Ferrell
- 6-2 200
- 4 INTs, 39.4 NFL passer rating when target
- slot defender
- seven havoc plays
#1 S Shawn Asbury II
- 5-10 199
- ODU transfer, started out at BC
- two-year starter at ODU
- 4 games with multiple missed tackles
- 7.5 havoc plays
#19 S Josh Sanguinetti
- 6-1 194
- 134.9 passer rating when targeted
- playing time significantly cut, only 14 snaps in the last 5 games
- 4.86 40, 4.53 short shuttle, 28.5 vert in HS
#5 CB D’Angelo Ponds
- 5-9 170
- James Madison transfer, freshman All-American
- 1st team All-Big Ten
- 15.5 total havoc plays
- pick-six vs Washington helped them win the game
- 55.6 passer rating against
- only allowed 1 explosive reception against this season
- tackles above his weight class
- 3 catches on 7 targets for 24 yards vs Ohio St, 2 PBUs
- 10.65 100m, 21.45 200m in HS
- one of the top corners ND will have faced this season
#22 CB Jamari Sharpe
- 6-1 187
- 3rd corner
- only 4 catches given up on 17 targets
- 3rd in forced incompletion percentage for CBs
- 6 PBUs
- 10.69 100m, 21.47 200m in HS
- 4.45 40, 29 vert in HS
#9 CB Jamier Johnson
- 5-11 181
- started career at Texas
- lack of ball production, one pass defended
#12 CB Terry Jones
- 6-1 200
- ODU transfer, three-year starter
- nickel back
- a good blitzer
- 8 havoc plays
Key for Notre Dame
Always challenge them pre-snap
Indiana is going to do things to try and disrupt Notre Dame’s running game. Mike Denbrock is going to win with formations and motion to create favorable numbers to run the football and take advantage of Indiana’s aggression with play-action.
If they can get Indiana to constantly react to what Notre Dame is doing before the snap, they should be able to dictate things and get Indiana to play on their heels more than they want to.
Special Teams
Indiana is 26th in SF+.
They’ve been solid in the kicking game and have blocked three kicks this season. Ponds blocked a punt for a safety against Michigan State and freshman Daniel Ndukwe has blocked two kicks. LB Aiden Fisher had a punt block at JMU last season as well.
Only 26.7% of their kickoffs have been touchbacks, so this might be a game where Jayden Harrison gets opportunities for a big return.
They gave a punt return touchdown to Caleb Downs against Ohio State. They ran a fake punt to DT James Carpenter when they were up 38 against Purdue, mostly likely because they wanted Notre Dame to spend time preparing for it.
Myles Price is 11th in the country in punt return average and Ke’Shawn Williams had a key 22-yard return against Michigan. That’s something to monitor with Notre Dame’s punt coverage team, but the number of fakes Notre Dame has run means that teams are worrying about those as much as they are worried about setting up any kind of return.
#39 K Nicolas Radicic
- 5-11 193
- 9 of 10 on FGs
- long of 41
- considered one of the top kickers in the 2023 recruiting class
#94 P James Evans
- 6-1 217
- Senior Bowl watchlist
- muffed a snap in the Ohio State game
- 44.2 per punt, 40.5 net is 43rd in the country
- 45.7 per punt in ‘23, 41.0 net was 29th
- from New Zealand
- 4-year starter
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