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Notre Dame Football
Deeper Dive into the Schedule
May 20, 2017
4,393
It's the time of year when college football over/under win totals are coming out. Vegas thinks they have a pretty good idea about most teams right now. They can go through a schedule and say "win, win, loss, win, win, loss, loss" etc.
Then, voila! A win total is born!
I know a lot more goes into it than that for those that set the line, but I think most people who gamble on it just do the old Mike and the Mad Dog and check either a win or loss beside every game. It's fun to do it that way and say that Notre Dame is going to go 9-3 or 10-2 or another number simply by saying that the Irish should win when a specific game.
Everyone obviously knows who should win doesn't matter when they play the games, though. There are many factors that go into it including injuries, weather, and much more. We really won't know anything about those factors until the week of the game.
What we can do is take a bit of a deeper dive into the schedule to look how everything shapes up for both teams heading into the match-up. Who do they play the week before? Are they coming off a bye? Could they be worn down heading into the game?
I'm going to go through it week by week starting with Temple and see what could possibly affect each game.
Back to back 10 win seasons doesn't mean as much with a mostly new coaching staff and several key players gone. Matt Rhule did help build up the depth in the program for new coach Geoff Collins, though.
This being the opening game for both teams and new coaches being involved on both sides, everyone should come in without a major advantage.
Georgia plays Appalachian State at home the week the before to kick off their season. App State is no push over. It's probably pretty close to the same challenge of Notre Dame playing Temple the week before. You can bet that Kirby Smart and his staff are going to put a ton of preparation into this game, though. He learned under the best in that sense with how good Nick Saban has been when he has months to prepare for a big game.
Georgia is used to playing big games in September. They usually play a conference game early and have played North Carolina and Clemson (twice) in recent years. They aren't going to be intimidated by the road trip and it's expected that a lot of UGA fans are going to attend this game.
BC always gets up to play Notre Dame. I'm sure they will have this game circled, but the game they play the previous week is a big one for them. They play Wake Forest and if they lose that game, they could be looking at at 1-3 start with the next two against the Irish and then Clemson. That would be bad news for Steve Addazio, who needs to show some progress this season after three years of 7-6 and one year of 3-9.
Probably not a good thing for Notre Dame to have a game against a program like BC after coming off a high from a win or a low from a loss versus Georgia. Win or lose the week before for ND, this game is probably an afternoon game on ABC or ESPN.
Notre Dame is coming off a tough three week stretch playing against teams that are known to be physical. Michigan State is coming off a bye after playing two MAC teams. One of the MAC teams, Western Michigan, should be pretty good. There is still a big difference between playing them and Georgia and BC, though.
Fox has the tier 1 rights for Big Ten football now and this game has been announced as a Fox game. In fact, if you look at the schedule that week it has a chance to be a ESPN College Gameday game because of the weak overall match-ups. If Notre Dame is 3-0 and Sparty is 2-0, then I think itt will happen. It may be a night game as well.
This is an ultimate body blow game for Notre Dame after what should be a physically challenging three weeks and MSU should be relatively healthy coming off two MAC games and a bye.
This game will mean a lot to former Notre Dame assistant Chuck Martin and it will probably mean more than many think for Brian Kelly. I'm sure he'll want to beat Martin's team by a significant amount to hopefully get a break for his starters after a grueling opening month.
It's a weird start time due to a scheduling issue with NBC. It's set for 5pm ET and I don't know if that will have a big effect on the players, but it's something to make note of in terms of changing their routine.
We now know Malik Zaire won't be playing the Irish this season because he won't be at UNC. They took another quarterback transfer from LSU. He'll be in battle with a couple of other quarterbacks already on campus to win the starting job, but by this time of the season they should have it figured out.
There are going to be so many new starters for the Tar Heels, but that shouldn't matter as much halfway through the year. What will matter more is they have had an equally tough schedule early on. They play Cal, Louisville, Duke, and Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets they get the week before the Irish.
That is a big change going from defending the triple option to what should be a an uptempo approach by Chip Long. This is a road game for Notre Dame, but they finally should have a bit of an advantage heading into this one with the easier opponent the week before.
They'll have plenty of time to prep for this one and the Notre Dame coaching staff is going to need it. It'll be a tough test. It typically is even when USC is bad. They may be great in 2017.
USC is going to be tested before they get to South Bend. They really don't have any games where they can let up. They start with Western Michigan and then play Stanford, Texas, at Cal, at Wazzu, Oregon State, and Utah in consecutive weeks. There is a good chance they are going to be worn down by the time they play an always tough Utah team.
No chance of a hurricane in this one. These teams finally get to play a real game instead of a ridiculous exhibition.
The Wolfpack get a bye while Notre Dame is playing USC, but four tough games in a row before against Florida State, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh means they are going to need that bye.
One big factor could be NC State's record. If they are 3-4 or 2-5, which could very well happen given their schedule, Dave Doeren is going to be on the hot seat. He may already be on it so a bad start could cause a downward spiral for their season.
It's a good thing Wake gave Dave Clawson that contract extension because he could have a rough patch based on their schedule alone. They've got Florida State, Clemson, a bye, Georgia Tech, and Louisville in consecutive weeks before traveling to Notre Dame. Wake might start 4-0 and then lose the next 5.
Mike Elko should legitimately know quite a bit about their offense without someone spilling secrets to him and they should know Elko's defense pretty well too. That chess match will be an interesting one to watch.
Miami may not reveal how good they truly are in 2017 until they play Virginia Tech at home the week before. They have FSU early, but not a daunting schedule after that. They are fortunate to avoid both Clemson and Louisville this season.
It's the beginning of what should be a difficult three game stretch for Notre Dame. How good the Irish are will likely determine whether or not this is another night game.
Senior Day versus Navy sounds like it has disaster written all over it, but the Irish are in the middle of a stretch of games for the Midshipmen that will determine their fate in the American Athletic conference.
Who am I kidding? Navy is Navy. It really doesn't seem to matter who they play or even who they have on the roster since Ken Niumatalolo has been running the program. They will win at least 8 games and be a difficult game no matter who they play before.
Both programs could very well be struggling to finish the year considering who they finish with. If Notre Dame survives a trip to Miami and the body blow versus Navy, they'll then have to take on a potential knockout in Stanford.
The Cardinal need to make sure they are still standing by that point. They've got Washington State and Washington, two programs that embarrassed them last season, and then a rivalry game versus Cal the week before Notre Dame visits Palo Alto. It's not like they are going to be fresh after those games.
It's not as important as how well the players play and the coaches coach, but the way the schedule sets up can cost a team a loss or help them gain a win. 2012 was a perfect example of it.
Notre Dame squeaked by an inferior Purdue team after traveling to Ireland for their opening game that season. The Irish won a close one when they got to play Michigan in week four rather than week one or two. They came off a bye and blew out Miami after Miami had played two close games the previous two weeks.
After Notre Dame had an emotionally and physically taxing win against Stanford, they struggled to beat a decent BYU team. After a massive win against Oklahoma on the road, Notre Dame needed a lot of luck to win against Pitt in triple overtime.
You get the point. Who teams play the week(s) before matter.
The Irish are going to have to survive in September the way things are set up with this current schedule, but things start to even out more after that. The good teams, like the one in 2012, overcome scheduling obstacles to win games that they might otherwise lose. We'll see if this team can overcome a difficult start to get to 10 wins or more in 2017.
Then, voila! A win total is born!
I know a lot more goes into it than that for those that set the line, but I think most people who gamble on it just do the old Mike and the Mad Dog and check either a win or loss beside every game. It's fun to do it that way and say that Notre Dame is going to go 9-3 or 10-2 or another number simply by saying that the Irish should win when a specific game.
Everyone obviously knows who should win doesn't matter when they play the games, though. There are many factors that go into it including injuries, weather, and much more. We really won't know anything about those factors until the week of the game.
What we can do is take a bit of a deeper dive into the schedule to look how everything shapes up for both teams heading into the match-up. Who do they play the week before? Are they coming off a bye? Could they be worn down heading into the game?
I'm going to go through it week by week starting with Temple and see what could possibly affect each game.
Week 1 - Temple
Back to back 10 win seasons doesn't mean as much with a mostly new coaching staff and several key players gone. Matt Rhule did help build up the depth in the program for new coach Geoff Collins, though.
This being the opening game for both teams and new coaches being involved on both sides, everyone should come in without a major advantage.
Week 2 - Georgia
Georgia plays Appalachian State at home the week the before to kick off their season. App State is no push over. It's probably pretty close to the same challenge of Notre Dame playing Temple the week before. You can bet that Kirby Smart and his staff are going to put a ton of preparation into this game, though. He learned under the best in that sense with how good Nick Saban has been when he has months to prepare for a big game.
Georgia is used to playing big games in September. They usually play a conference game early and have played North Carolina and Clemson (twice) in recent years. They aren't going to be intimidated by the road trip and it's expected that a lot of UGA fans are going to attend this game.
Week 3 - @ Boston College
BC always gets up to play Notre Dame. I'm sure they will have this game circled, but the game they play the previous week is a big one for them. They play Wake Forest and if they lose that game, they could be looking at at 1-3 start with the next two against the Irish and then Clemson. That would be bad news for Steve Addazio, who needs to show some progress this season after three years of 7-6 and one year of 3-9.
Probably not a good thing for Notre Dame to have a game against a program like BC after coming off a high from a win or a low from a loss versus Georgia. Win or lose the week before for ND, this game is probably an afternoon game on ABC or ESPN.
Week 4 - @ Michigan State
Notre Dame is coming off a tough three week stretch playing against teams that are known to be physical. Michigan State is coming off a bye after playing two MAC teams. One of the MAC teams, Western Michigan, should be pretty good. There is still a big difference between playing them and Georgia and BC, though.
Fox has the tier 1 rights for Big Ten football now and this game has been announced as a Fox game. In fact, if you look at the schedule that week it has a chance to be a ESPN College Gameday game because of the weak overall match-ups. If Notre Dame is 3-0 and Sparty is 2-0, then I think itt will happen. It may be a night game as well.
This is an ultimate body blow game for Notre Dame after what should be a physically challenging three weeks and MSU should be relatively healthy coming off two MAC games and a bye.
Week 5 - Miami (Ohio)
This game will mean a lot to former Notre Dame assistant Chuck Martin and it will probably mean more than many think for Brian Kelly. I'm sure he'll want to beat Martin's team by a significant amount to hopefully get a break for his starters after a grueling opening month.
It's a weird start time due to a scheduling issue with NBC. It's set for 5pm ET and I don't know if that will have a big effect on the players, but it's something to make note of in terms of changing their routine.
Week 6 - @ North Carolina
We now know Malik Zaire won't be playing the Irish this season because he won't be at UNC. They took another quarterback transfer from LSU. He'll be in battle with a couple of other quarterbacks already on campus to win the starting job, but by this time of the season they should have it figured out.
There are going to be so many new starters for the Tar Heels, but that shouldn't matter as much halfway through the year. What will matter more is they have had an equally tough schedule early on. They play Cal, Louisville, Duke, and Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets they get the week before the Irish.
That is a big change going from defending the triple option to what should be a an uptempo approach by Chip Long. This is a road game for Notre Dame, but they finally should have a bit of an advantage heading into this one with the easier opponent the week before.
Week 7 - Bye
Week 8 - USC
They'll have plenty of time to prep for this one and the Notre Dame coaching staff is going to need it. It'll be a tough test. It typically is even when USC is bad. They may be great in 2017.
USC is going to be tested before they get to South Bend. They really don't have any games where they can let up. They start with Western Michigan and then play Stanford, Texas, at Cal, at Wazzu, Oregon State, and Utah in consecutive weeks. There is a good chance they are going to be worn down by the time they play an always tough Utah team.
Week 9 - NC State
No chance of a hurricane in this one. These teams finally get to play a real game instead of a ridiculous exhibition.
The Wolfpack get a bye while Notre Dame is playing USC, but four tough games in a row before against Florida State, Syracuse, Louisville, and Pittsburgh means they are going to need that bye.
One big factor could be NC State's record. If they are 3-4 or 2-5, which could very well happen given their schedule, Dave Doeren is going to be on the hot seat. He may already be on it so a bad start could cause a downward spiral for their season.
Week 10 - Wake Forest
It's a good thing Wake gave Dave Clawson that contract extension because he could have a rough patch based on their schedule alone. They've got Florida State, Clemson, a bye, Georgia Tech, and Louisville in consecutive weeks before traveling to Notre Dame. Wake might start 4-0 and then lose the next 5.
Mike Elko should legitimately know quite a bit about their offense without someone spilling secrets to him and they should know Elko's defense pretty well too. That chess match will be an interesting one to watch.
Week 11 - @ Miami (Florida)
Miami may not reveal how good they truly are in 2017 until they play Virginia Tech at home the week before. They have FSU early, but not a daunting schedule after that. They are fortunate to avoid both Clemson and Louisville this season.
It's the beginning of what should be a difficult three game stretch for Notre Dame. How good the Irish are will likely determine whether or not this is another night game.
Week 12 - Navy
Senior Day versus Navy sounds like it has disaster written all over it, but the Irish are in the middle of a stretch of games for the Midshipmen that will determine their fate in the American Athletic conference.
Who am I kidding? Navy is Navy. It really doesn't seem to matter who they play or even who they have on the roster since Ken Niumatalolo has been running the program. They will win at least 8 games and be a difficult game no matter who they play before.
Week 13 - Stanford
Both programs could very well be struggling to finish the year considering who they finish with. If Notre Dame survives a trip to Miami and the body blow versus Navy, they'll then have to take on a potential knockout in Stanford.
The Cardinal need to make sure they are still standing by that point. They've got Washington State and Washington, two programs that embarrassed them last season, and then a rivalry game versus Cal the week before Notre Dame visits Palo Alto. It's not like they are going to be fresh after those games.
It's not as important as how well the players play and the coaches coach, but the way the schedule sets up can cost a team a loss or help them gain a win. 2012 was a perfect example of it.
Notre Dame squeaked by an inferior Purdue team after traveling to Ireland for their opening game that season. The Irish won a close one when they got to play Michigan in week four rather than week one or two. They came off a bye and blew out Miami after Miami had played two close games the previous two weeks.
After Notre Dame had an emotionally and physically taxing win against Stanford, they struggled to beat a decent BYU team. After a massive win against Oklahoma on the road, Notre Dame needed a lot of luck to win against Pitt in triple overtime.
You get the point. Who teams play the week(s) before matter.
The Irish are going to have to survive in September the way things are set up with this current schedule, but things start to even out more after that. The good teams, like the one in 2012, overcome scheduling obstacles to win games that they might otherwise lose. We'll see if this team can overcome a difficult start to get to 10 wins or more in 2017.
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